Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201211-1277389/1277389_tes15aircaivspindnkn4.pdf?force_download=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> Friday night that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apartment-invt-mgmt-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2193:1" rel="noopener">Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US)</a> coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dunkin-brands-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15866:1" rel="noopener">Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US)</a> in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/occidental-petroleum-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17075:1" rel="noopener">Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)</a> coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team confirmed Friday night that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US) coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US) in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY US) coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aston-martin-lagonda-global-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27446:1" rel="noopener">Aston Martin (AML LN)</a> shares rallied 14% on Wednesday after the company noted it is unlikely to seek a near-term placement after multiple rights issues in 2020. On top of this, the company noted it does not have any bonds due until 2022. We give our updated thoughts on the company amidst its heavy restructuring below the fold. We have been quite negative on Aston Martin although turned positive after the company placed shares at 50p. Our research is below: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aston-martin-another-placement-of-shares-is-it-enough-to-ensure-survival" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40806" rel="noopener">Aston Martin: Another Placement of Shares -  Is It Enough to Ensure Survival?</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aston-martin-is-another-placement-coming-or-is-it-time-to-gulp-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38030" rel="noopener">Aston Martin: Is Another Placement Coming or Is It Time To (Gulp) Buy?</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aston-martin-lagonda-rights-issue-palliative-care-administered" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36278" rel="noopener">Aston Martin Lagonda Rights Issue: Palliative Care Administered</a>

Aston Martin (AML LN) shares rallied 14% on Wednesday after the company noted it is unlikely to seek a near-term placement after multiple rights issues in 2020. On top of this, the company noted it does not have any bonds due until 2022. We give our updated thoughts on the company amidst its heavy restructuring below the fold. We have been quite negative on Aston Martin although turned positive after the company placed shares at 50p. Our research is below: Aston Martin: Another Placement of Shares -  Is It Enough to Ensure Survival? Aston Martin: Is Another Placement Coming or Is It Time To (Gulp) Buy? Aston Martin Lagonda Rights Issue: Palliative Care Administered 

Aston Martin: Angling to Be Ferrari – 40% Upside?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Auto exposures are in decline among Global active investors.  Average holding weights are towards the lower end of the 9-year range, at 0.83%.  A record low of 49% of the 406 funds in our analysis have exposure to the Autos sector.</li>
<li>Fund activity over the last 6-months saw Global managers selling down stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daimler-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Daimler AG (DAI GR)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ford-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19225:1" rel="noopener">Ford Motor Co (F US)</a> . <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag-pref" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:734:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY)</a> were the main bright spots as ownership levels grew over the period.</li>
<li>Overall, the auto industry is becoming increasingly unattractive to the average Global fund manager, with increases in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> exposure unable to counteract significant declines in ownership across the more traditional auto manufacturers.</li>
</ul>


Auto exposures are in decline among Global active investors.  Average holding weights are towards the lower end of the 9-year range, at 0.83%.  A record low of 49% of the 406 funds in our analysis have exposure to the Autos sector.
Fund activity over the last 6-months saw Global managers selling down stakes in Daimler AG (DAI GR) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Ford Motor Co (F US) . Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and Volkswagen (Pref) (VOW3 GY) were the main bright spots as ownership levels grew over the period.
Overall, the auto industry is becoming increasingly unattractive to the average Global fund manager, with increases in Tesla Motors (TSLA US) exposure unable to counteract significant declines in ownership across the more traditional auto manufacturers.


The Global Autos Break Down, Though Tesla on Full Charge

Italy

Ferrari NV designs and manufactures sports cars. The Company offers new and used vehicles, warranty programs, financial supports, and maintenance, as well as watches, apparels, earphones, caps, and other accessories. Ferrari markets its products worldwide.

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Ferrari NV (RACE IM)

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

The TSLA S&P500 inclusion involves $150bn of direct flows and perhaps another $200-300bn indirect flows. It really is a MAMMOTH trade. And index...

Travis Lundy

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Aston Martin: Angling to Be Ferrari – 40% Upside?

Aston Martin (AML LN) shares rallied 14% on Wednesday after the company noted it is unlikely to seek a near-term placement after multiple rights...

Rickin Thakrar

The Global Autos Break Down, Though Tesla on Full Charge

Auto exposures are in decline among Global active investors. Average holding weights are towards the lower end of the 9-year range, at 0.83%. A...

Steven Holden

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