Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) reported slower-than- industry APE growth (+1% 3-year CAGR, in line with estimates); however, VNB margins, at 31%, came in 200bps ahead of estimates, translating into a 32% YoY VNB growth.</li><li>We like IPRU’s reengineered business model, which is focused on a more diversified product and channel mix, industry-leading share in sum assured (1QFY23: 15.8%), and rising share of traditional products.</li><li>We expect the re-jigging of protection products to customer demand alongside strong momentum from non-ICICIBC channel to aid future growth.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) reported slower-than- industry APE growth (+1% 3-year CAGR, in line with estimates); however, VNB margins, at 31%, came in 200bps ahead of estimates, translating into a 32% YoY VNB growth.We like IPRU’s reengineered business model, which is focused on a more diversified product and channel mix, industry-leading share in sum assured (1QFY23: 15.8%), and rising share of traditional products.We expect the re-jigging of protection products to customer demand alongside strong momentum from non-ICICIBC channel to aid future growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ICICI Prudential Life - Margins Drive Beat; on Way to Double FY19 VNB

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><ul><li>Treasury losses to dent earnings: While we expect NII growth to be strong (up 16.9% YoY for coverage banks), treasury losses could be a major drag on operating profit growth.</li><li><p>Systemic credit growth, provisional updates indicate optimism: As per RBI’s latest data, systemic credit growth rate is 12% YoY (June’22).</p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Large cap banks showing stronger traction than peers; housing doing well: We expect large cap coverage banks to continue to report higher growth (20.7% YoY) vis-à-vis mid/small-cap peers (16.9% YoY) and PSBs (15.5% YoY).</span></p></li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Treasury losses to dent earnings: While we expect NII growth to be strong (up 16.9% YoY for coverage banks), treasury losses could be a major drag on operating profit growth.Systemic credit growth, provisional updates indicate optimism: As per RBI’s latest data, systemic credit growth rate is 12% YoY (June’22).Large cap banks showing stronger traction than peers; housing doing well: We expect large cap coverage banks to continue to report higher growth (20.7% YoY) vis-à-vis mid/small-cap peers (16.9% YoY) and PSBs (15.5% YoY).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banking & Financials Sector - Weak Treasury to Dent Earnings

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><ul><li>Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,825/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Tata Power: During Q4FY22, Tata Power completed the merger of Mundra into its standalone business and also secured the extension of mining lease in KPC for 10 years.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Federal Bank: Federal Bank’s (FB) Q4FY22 earnings missed our estimates, largely on account of accelerated absorption of family pension expenses, but these were partly offset by multi-quarter low credit costs (20bps).</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,825/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses.Tata Power: During Q4FY22, Tata Power completed the merger of Mundra into its standalone business and also secured the extension of mining lease in KPC for 10 years.Federal Bank: Federal Bank’s (FB) Q4FY22 earnings missed our estimates, largely on account of accelerated absorption of family pension expenses, but these were partly offset by multi-quarter low credit costs (20bps).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, Tata Power, Federal Bank, DCB Bank

<div><div><ul><li>Standalone oil to chemicals (O2C) segment: R<span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">evenue grew 53% YoY to INR </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">1,370bn, primarily due to improved realisation, led by increase in oil prices </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">and higher volumes.</span></li><li>Oil &amp; gas: Revenue grew ~4x YoY to INR 20bn and EBITDA improved ~5x <div><div><div><p>YoY to INR 15bn, driven by sharp improvement in price realisaton and stable <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">production from the KG D6 block.</span></p></div></div></div></li></ul></div><div><div><div><ul><li>RJPL: Revenue improved to INR 261bn (+21% YoY, +8% QoQ) due to increase in ARPU to INR 168 (+21% YoY, +11% QoQ).</li></ul></div></div></div></div><div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Standalone oil to chemicals (O2C) segment: Revenue grew 53% YoY to INR 1,370bn, primarily due to improved realisation, led by increase in oil prices and higher volumes.Oil &amp; gas: Revenue grew ~4x YoY to INR 20bn and EBITDA improved ~5x YoY to INR 15bn, driven by sharp improvement in price realisaton and stable production from the KG D6 block.RJPL: Revenue improved to INR 261bn (+21% YoY, +8% QoQ) due to increase in ARPU to INR 168 (+21% YoY, +11% QoQ).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reliance Industries - Energy Business Outlook Sanguine

India

Federal Bank Limited operates branches and regional offices throughout India. The Bank offers a wide range of financial services, including merchant banking, international banking and foreign exchange, leasing facilities, money markets and agricultural advances. The Bank also provides lending for hi-tech agricultural and government sponsored schemes.

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Federal Bank (FB IN)

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on $EEM. Specifically, the EEM has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If EEM has...

Vermilion Research

ICICI Prudential Life - Margins Drive Beat; on Way to Double FY19 VNB

ICICI Prudential Life: ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) reported slower-than- industry APE growth (+1% 3-year CAGR, in line with estimates)

HDFC Securities

Banking & Financials Sector - Weak Treasury to Dent Earnings

We expect banks to report weak earnings due to treasury losses. We expect operating earnings of coverage banks to decline by 6.5% YoY and 11.2% QoQ...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, Tata Power, Federal Bank, DCB Bank

RIL reported standalone revenue of INR 1,295bn (+61% YoY; +16% QoQ) and EBITDA of INR 146bn, (+43% YoY; +11% QoQ), 3% below our estimates in Q4.

HDFC Securities

Reliance Industries - Energy Business Outlook Sanguine

RIL reported standalone revenue of INR 1,295bn (+61% YoY; +16% QoQ) and EBITDA of INR 146bn, (+43% YoY; +11% QoQ), 3% below our estimates in Q4

HDFC Securities

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