Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.<strong> </strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst, VAC Investments

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global Cross-Asset Energy Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the week at USD 68.11/bbl, while Brent ended the week at USD 73.61/bbl. A near perfect storm involving - heightened geopolitical risk (Missile strikes in Syria and increased risks to the Iran Nuclear Deal); encouraging statements from the recent OPEC meeting around spare capacity and the likelihood of further production cuts by OPEC and Russia; and a…</p>

Oil PriceCrude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the week at USD 68.11/bbl, while Brent ended the week at USD 73.61/bbl. A near perfect storm involving - heightened geopolitical risk (Missile strikes in Syria and increased risks to the Iran Nuclear Deal); encouraging statements from the recent OPEC meeting around spare capacity and the likelihood of further production cuts by OPEC and Russia; and a…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude oil prices dropped by nearly 10% this week, with WTI and Brent ending at USD 59.02 and USD 62.58, respectively. Whilst the price weakness was largely driven by the broader market crash in equity and bond prices, it was also assisted by continued robust production growth out of the US (c.10.25 MMbo/day currently) and comments from the Iranian Energy Minister signalling that the cuts in OPEC production could expire by June this year, instead of at year-end as previously announced…</p>

Oil PriceCrude oil prices dropped by nearly 10% this week, with WTI and Brent ending at USD 59.02 and USD 62.58, respectively. Whilst the price weakness was largely driven by the broader market crash in equity and bond prices, it was also assisted by continued robust production growth out of the US (c.10.25 MMbo/day currently) and comments from the Iranian Energy Minister signalling that the cuts in OPEC production could expire by June this year, instead of at year-end as previously announced…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>Crude prices had a volatile week, with WTI ending c.2% lower at USD 58.27/bbl, while Brent was largely flat at USD 63.61/bbl. Downside pressure on WTI following the TransCanada Keystone pipeline restart early in the week was modestly moderated by the extension of OPEC cuts to end-2018 from March next year, previously. </p><p>OPEC and Russia have agreed to extend the current production cuts until the end of 2018 (previously set to expire in March 2018). In addition, Nigeria and Libya, which are…</p>

Oil PriceCrude prices had a volatile week, with WTI ending c.2% lower at USD 58.27/bbl, while Brent was largely flat at USD 63.61/bbl. Downside pressure on WTI following the TransCanada Keystone pipeline restart early in the week was modestly moderated by the extension of OPEC cuts to end-2018 from March next year, previously. OPEC and Russia have agreed to extend the current production cuts until the end of 2018 (previously set to expire in March 2018). In addition, Nigeria and Libya, which are…

<h2>Oil Price</h2><p>We saw diverging price moves across the oil complex this week. Fear of an extended supply disruption at the Keystone pipeline drove WTI to its highest weekly gain since 2015, to close the week at USD 58.63/bbl. In contrast, Brent prices only moved up modestly to close the week at USD 63.71/bbl, with traders pausing ahead of a likely extension of OPEC quota cuts during their meeting this Thursday (30 Nov). The quota cuts are currently set to expire by March 2018. However, we would argue…</p>

Oil PriceWe saw diverging price moves across the oil complex this week. Fear of an extended supply disruption at the Keystone pipeline drove WTI to its highest weekly gain since 2015, to close the week at USD 58.63/bbl. In contrast, Brent prices only moved up modestly to close the week at USD 63.71/bbl, with traders pausing ahead of a likely extension of OPEC quota cuts during their meeting this Thursday (30 Nov). The quota cuts are currently set to expire by March 2018. However, we would argue…

United Kingdom

Faroe Petroleum plc, an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, appraisal, development, and production of oil and gas fields in Northwest Europe. It has interests in six principal producing oil and gas fields in the United Kingdom and Norway, including interests in the Schooner and Ketch gas fields, and the Blane oil field in the United Kingdom; and interests in the producing Njord, Brage, and Ringhorne East fields in Norway. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Aberdeen, the United Kingdom.

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Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 15

Oil PriceCrude oil futures continued their rally last week by gaining almost 2% W/w, reaching new highs not seen since November 2014. WTI ended the...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 12

Oil PriceCrude oil prices dropped by nearly 10% this week, with WTI and Brent ending at USD 59.02 and USD 62.58, respectively. Whilst the price...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 4

Oil PriceCrude prices had a volatile week, with WTI ending c.2% lower at USD 58.27/bbl, while Brent was largely flat at USD 63.61/bbl. Downside...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

Global E&Ps: Energy Weekly Vol. 3

Oil PriceWe saw diverging price moves across the oil complex this week. Fear of an extended supply disruption at the Keystone pipeline drove WTI to...

Aaditya Chintalapati, CFA

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