Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TLNE has come under pressure after news of AEP and EXC protesting the power purchase agreement between TLNE and AWS. AEP and EXC are asking for a hearing by FERC</li>
<li>The process creates a headwind for TLNE and the timing of when, or if, the remaining $300M would be released in TLNE's agreement with AWS.  </li>
<li>The signal AEP and EXC are sending supports the long-term view on power supply. The power being diverted to AWS would put greater stress on the regulated power companies</li>
</ul>


TLNE has come under pressure after news of AEP and EXC protesting the power purchase agreement between TLNE and AWS. AEP and EXC are asking for a hearing by FERC
The process creates a headwind for TLNE and the timing of when, or if, the remaining $300M would be released in TLNE's agreement with AWS.  
The signal AEP and EXC are sending supports the long-term view on power supply. The power being diverted to AWS would put greater stress on the regulated power companies


iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.</li>
<li>We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.
We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.
4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a> surprised the market by announcing its division into two listed companies: one for regulated network assets, and the other for liberalised businesses (generation &amp; commercialisation/marketing).</li>
<li>Naturgy is trading at 10.1x EV/2021a EBITDA and at a demanding 21.9x P/E, higher than Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)'s 16.3x and Endesa SA (ELE SM)'s 11.5x.</li>
<li>Strategies: pair trades long REE SM/short NTGY SM or long ENG SM/short NTGY SM. Risk: this strategy assumes that both CriteriaCaixa and IFM will stop acquiring shares of Naturgy.</li>
</ul>



Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM) surprised the market by announcing its division into two listed companies: one for regulated network assets, and the other for liberalised businesses (generation &amp; commercialisation/marketing).
Naturgy is trading at 10.1x EV/2021a EBITDA and at a demanding 21.9x P/E, higher than Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)'s 16.3x and Endesa SA (ELE SM)'s 11.5x.
Strategies: pair trades long REE SM/short NTGY SM or long ENG SM/short NTGY SM. Risk: this strategy assumes that both CriteriaCaixa and IFM will stop acquiring shares of Naturgy.


<ul>
<li>Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.</li>
<li>This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.</li>
<li>Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).</li>
</ul>


Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.
This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.
Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).


U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

United States

Exelon Corporation is a utility services holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, distributes electricity to customers in Illinois and Pennsylvania. Exelon also distributes gas to customers in the Philadelphia area as well as operates nuclear power plants in states that include Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

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Exelon Corp (EXC US)

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

TLNE: Protest Validates Long Thesis

We view this attempt to block the power purchase agreement between TLNE and AWS as a signal there is a power shortage issue several years down the...

BWS Financial Inc

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

$209 on the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now, and we would like the see a break above $209 in...

Vermilion Research

Demerger Plans for Naturgy

The demerger does not represent much upside potential in my view, other than paving the way for future corporate operations. Naturgy seems...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Indexes continue to violate our key supports on the Russell 2000 (IWM), the S&P 500, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW). Most opportunities...

Vermilion Research

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