Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 plunged dramatically compared to 2022</li>
<li>
Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 were quite good by historical standards</li>
<li>In this insight we provide context to help readers evaluate carrier performance in 2023</li>
</ul>



Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 plunged dramatically compared to 2022

Yes, carrier margins and returns in Q2/H1 were quite good by historical standards
In this insight we provide context to help readers evaluate carrier performance in 2023


Evergreen Marine: 'H1 Earnings Plunged Dramatically Y/Y' | Also, 'H1 Earnings Were Pretty Damn Good'

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Friday container giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moeller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22428:1" rel="noopener">AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)</a> raised FY23 guidance, lifting the bottom of its EBITDA range &amp; increasing target FCF from US$2bn+ to US$3bn+</li>
<li>Despite beating Q2 expectations and raising FY guidance, management warned that the "normalization" of container shipping conditions is taking longer than anticipated</li>
<li>Maersk's shares traded down on the news, but the company's statements confirm our thesis: market conditions in 2023 are not nearly as bad as expected (Maersk's TTM ROIC 34%!)</li>
</ul>


On Friday container giant AP Moeller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC) raised FY23 guidance, lifting the bottom of its EBITDA range &amp; increasing target FCF from US$2bn+ to US$3bn+
Despite beating Q2 expectations and raising FY guidance, management warned that the "normalization" of container shipping conditions is taking longer than anticipated
Maersk's shares traded down on the news, but the company's statements confirm our thesis: market conditions in 2023 are not nearly as bad as expected (Maersk's TTM ROIC 34%!)


Maersk Q2: Raised FY23 Guidance | Beat on Earnings, Too | Takeaway: Conditions Not Disastrous

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped</li>
<li>US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels</li>
<li>We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide "tailwinds" for much longer</li>
</ul>


US PPI has steadily eased over the past 15 months, and lower transportation costs have helped
US long-distance trucking and international air freight costs have fallen dramatically from the peak, but ocean freight has surprisingly remained close to peak levels
We believe falling transportation costs are unlikely to provide "tailwinds" for much longer


US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Inventec, Lite-On Tech, Walsin Lihwa, ASE, Lotus.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 14th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Inventec, Lite-On Tech, Walsin Lihwa, ASE, Lotus.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 14th): Quanta Computer, Inventec, Lite-On Tech, Walsin Lihwa, ASE

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 30th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Macronix Intl, Gigabyte Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jun 30th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD13.8bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek, Evergreen Marine, Macronix Intl, Gigabyte Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

Taiwan

Evergreen Marine Corp. (Taiwan) Ltd. transports freight by ships. The Company operates container ships to move freight throughout the world. Evergreen Marine has interests in terminals, airline operations and motor freight transportation, as well as container manufacturing.

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Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)

Evergreen Marine: 'H1 Earnings Plunged Dramatically Y/Y' | Also, 'H1 Earnings Were Pretty Damn Good'

Evergreen, Maersk, and ZIM have all reported H1 results. Yes, margins and returns were a fraction of what they were in 2021-22, but H123 earnings...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q2: Raised FY23 Guidance | Beat on Earnings, Too | Takeaway: Conditions Not Disastrous

Maersk Q2 results beat expectations handily. More importantly, the company raised FY23 guidance for EBITDA and FCF, though management also...

Tracking Traffic

US PPI: Tailwinds from Transportation Price Collapse Set to Subside in H2 2023

Falling costs for multiple modes of transportation have provided a strong "tailwind" to US PPI, which has declined steadily over the past 15...

Tracking Traffic

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jul 14th): Quanta Computer, Inventec, Lite-On Tech, Walsin Lihwa, ASE

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Inventec, Lite-On Tech, Walsin...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jun 30th): Wiwynn, ASE, Makalot, Pegatron, Walsin Lihwa, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Wiwynn, Ase Technology H, Makalot, Pegatron,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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