IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-space-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a>’s property management unit, has begun pre-marketing a US$2.0 billion HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/onewo-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80058" rel="noopener">Onewo IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on the organic growth rates half of the reported rates, slow revenue diversification, lacklustre gross margin and declining contract liabilities ratio.</li>
</ul>



Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)’s property management unit, has begun pre-marketing a US$2.0 billion HKEx IPO.
In Onewo IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
The key elements of the bear case rest on the organic growth rates half of the reported rates, slow revenue diversification, lacklustre gross margin and declining contract liabilities ratio.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-space-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26076:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (000002 CH)</a>’s property management unit, has begun pre-marketing a US$2.0 billion HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>Onewo ranked first in China’s property management services market as measured by revenue from basic property management services, with a market share of 4.28% in 2021.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on the solid financial health of the parent, strong growth, growth runway from undelivered GFA, share gains, renewal rates and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK), China Vanke (000002 CH)’s property management unit, has begun pre-marketing a US$2.0 billion HKEx IPO.
Onewo ranked first in China’s property management services market as measured by revenue from basic property management services, with a market share of 4.28% in 2021.
The key elements of the bull case rest on the solid financial health of the parent, strong growth, growth runway from undelivered GFA, share gains, renewal rates and cash generation.


APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Jinmao Property Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinmao-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34170:1" rel="noopener">Jinmao Property Services (JM HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Stronger operating metrics had translated to revenue growth and margins have improved as business scaled.</li>
<li>However, the market is highly fragmented and its high residential component could face pricing pressure as well.</li>
</ul>



Jinmao Property Services (JM HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Stronger operating metrics had translated to revenue growth and margins have improved as business scaled.
However, the market is highly fragmented and its high residential component could face pricing pressure as well.


Jinmao Property Services Pre-IPO - Stronger Operating Metrics Aided Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Stocks in the China Property Services industry have taken a beating over the last year on heightened regulatory fears, placements and potential stake sales by their large property developer holders.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Service and Management Index (HSPSM) has underperformed the Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSMPI) over the last 3 months and there could be some recovery.</li>
<li>We take a look at some pair trades that could provide outperformance in the short-term with a lower level of risk.</li>
</ul>


Stocks in the China Property Services industry have taken a beating over the last year on heightened regulatory fears, placements and potential stake sales by their large property developer holders.
The Hang Seng Property Service and Management Index (HSPSM) has underperformed the Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSMPI) over the last 3 months and there could be some recovery.
We take a look at some pair trades that could provide outperformance in the short-term with a lower level of risk.


China Property Services: Pair Trades in a Beaten Down Industry

Event-Driven

Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group / Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-languang-justbon-service-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28337:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK)</a> has despatched the composite document in relation to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> base and enhanced offer. Currently, Country Garden owns 71.17% of the outstanding shares comprising 66.99% of the domestic shares and 71.20% of the H Shares. The base offer is an unconditional mandatory cash offer for all the issued shares is HK$51.0571 per H-share (RMB42.8547 per domestic share. The enhanced share offer, which is payable only if the delisting is approved, is HK$54.3000 per H-share (RMB45.5768 per domestic share). Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the base and enhanced offer to be fair and reasonable. We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the peer multiple comparisons could be improved. The two key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% independent H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection) and the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of H-shares held by independent H-shareholders). Satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key hurdle. We note the privatisation proposals for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-jingneng-clean-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16316:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harbin-electric-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11116:1" rel="noopener">Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK)</a> have previously failed due to the inability to meet the 90% minimum acceptance condition.  <div class="content-highlight">Country Garden Services has bought itself some leeway by having the right to extend the closing date from 17 June to not later than 3 September. In theory, the extended time period should provide a greater chance of meeting the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross spread to the enhanced offer price of HK$54.3000 stands at 4.9%.</div>

Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) has despatched the composite document in relation to Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) base and enhanced offer. Currently, Country Garden owns 71.17% of the outstanding shares comprising 66.99% of the domestic shares and 71.20% of the H Shares. The base offer is an unconditional mandatory cash offer for all the issued shares is HK$51.0571 per H-share (RMB42.8547 per domestic share. The enhanced share offer, which is payable only if the delisting is approved, is HK$54.3000 per H-share (RMB45.5768 per domestic share). Unsurprisingly, the IFA considers the base and enhanced offer to be fair and reasonable. We broadly agree with the IFA analysis with the exception that the peer multiple comparisons could be improved. The two key conditions for the delisting will be approval by at least 75% independent H-shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H-shareholders rejection) and the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of H-shares held by independent H-shareholders). Satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key hurdle. We note the privatisation proposals for Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) and Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK) have previously failed due to the inability to meet the 90% minimum acceptance condition.  Country Garden Services has bought itself some leeway by having the right to extend the closing date from 17 June to not later than 3 September. In theory, the extended time period should provide a greater chance of meeting the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross spread to the enhanced offer price of HK$54.3000 stands at 4.9%.

Languang Justbon’s Composite Document, IFA Opinion and Extended Closing Date

China

CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group Limited operates as a property management service provider. The Company provides residential properties, non-residential properties, sales assistance services, housing repair services, pre-delivery inspection services, and community value-added services. CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Group serves customers in China.

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CIFI Ever Sunshine Services Gr (1995 HK)

Onewo IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on the organic growth rates half of the reported rates, slow revenue diversification, lacklustre gross...

Arun George

Onewo IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on the solid financial health of the parent, strong growth, growth runway from undelivered GFA, share gains,...

Arun George

Jinmao Property Services Pre-IPO - Stronger Operating Metrics Aided Growth

Jinmao Property Services (JM HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Stronger operating metrics had translated to...

Clarence Chu

China Property Services: Pair Trades in a Beaten Down Industry

Stocks from the China Property Management industry have been beaten down over the last year on increased regulation and potential stake sales by...

Brian Freitas

Languang Justbon’s Composite Document, IFA Opinion and Extended Closing Date

Satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition is the key hurdle. At the last close, the gross spread to the enhanced offer price of HK$54.3000...

Arun George

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