Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.</span></li>
<li>The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).</li>
<li>Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.</li>
</ul>


The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.


Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.</li><li>This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.</li><li>The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the reactions of CBs.This is followed by talking about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly finishing off with Dutch politics.The Fed is the most plausible “pauser”.

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

<ul><li>We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.</li><li>The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.</li><li>Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! </li></ul>

We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! 

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

<ul><li>We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.</li><li>In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.</li><li>Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.</li></ul>

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: CBs, Eurflation, OPEC, Ifo, Dutch Politics

We talk about EURflation and the upcoming OPEC meeting and we then move on to talking about the Ifo numbers released last week while lastly...

Steno Research

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?

We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in...

Steno Research

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