Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.</li><li>There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).</li><li>It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.</li></ul>

US Treasury liquidity conditions remain weak and the turmoil in Treasuries during the third quarter of 2023 probably played a major role in the Powell pivot in December in hindsight.There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves (USD liquidity).It all has to do with the mechanics of leverage ratios in regulation.

USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

<ul><li>Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.</li><li>Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.</li><li>After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.</li></ul>

Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.</li>
<li>The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.</li>
<li>The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.</li>
</ul>


Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.
The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.
The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.


NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

<ul><li>From the fresh IFO report details (on prices, orders and employment intentions), the majority of industries expect exports to decline in the months ahead.</li><li>These include automakers, who had recently been assuming that exports would remain constant.</li><li>Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are also expecting fewer orders from abroad, while energy-intensive industries such as the chemical, metal and construction industries are having a particularly tough time at the moment.</li></ul>

From the fresh IFO report details (on prices, orders and employment intentions), the majority of industries expect exports to decline in the months ahead.These include automakers, who had recently been assuming that exports would remain constant.Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are also expecting fewer orders from abroad, while energy-intensive industries such as the chemical, metal and construction industries are having a particularly tough time at the moment.

IFO Nugget: Recession and Target Inflation?

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury Selling Due to Bank Reserves Influx?

There are signs of increasing liquidity stress in US Treasury markets again, but how is that possible during a regime of increasing bank reserves...

Steno Research

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout)

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards...

Steno Research

IFO Nugget: Recession and Target Inflation?

There is no way around the fact that, no matter how many officials refrain from admitting it, Germany and central economies in Europe are in, at...

Steno Research

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