FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The EUR has broken above the psychological 1.10 level after a lengthy and frustrating period of consolidation below this level since the first round of the French election. Eurozone economic momentum has maintained a steady improving trend and more clearly appears on a sustainable path to achieving the ECB’s inflation goals over the medium term, in contrast to Japan which is nowhere in sight of ending its unconventional extreme policy easing measures.  Political risk in Europe has faded whereas it has increased in the USA as Trump stumbles from one controversy to the next.  Geopolitical risk remains elevated with the US still threatening trade disputes, China’s credit issues ever present, North Korea threatening and the US President shifting to focus on fighting ISIS.  Europe is looking more like a haven rather than a source of risk.  Trump’s domestic economic policy appears stalled, and the risk is that US economic confidence fades. Many commentators see US equities as relatively expensive, and equity flow appears to be moving towards the Eurozone with more consistency.  The ECB may continue to talk down the prospect of a change in ECB policy, but this may only serve to slow the recovery in EUR.  A move towards the high side of its range over recent years near 1.15 seems quite possible.</em></p>

The EUR has broken above the psychological 1.10 level after a lengthy and frustrating period of consolidation below this level since the first round of the French election. Eurozone economic momentum has maintained a steady improving trend and more clearly appears on a sustainable path to achieving the ECB’s inflation goals over the medium term, in contrast to Japan which is nowhere in sight of ending its unconventional extreme policy easing measures.  Political risk in Europe has faded whereas it has increased in the USA as Trump stumbles from one controversy to the next.  Geopolitical risk remains elevated with the US still threatening trade disputes, China’s credit issues ever present, North Korea threatening and the US President shifting to focus on fighting ISIS.  Europe is looking more like a haven rather than a source of risk.  Trump’s domestic economic policy appears stalled, and the risk is that US economic confidence fades. Many commentators see US equities as relatively expensive, and equity flow appears to be moving towards the Eurozone with more consistency.  The ECB may continue to talk down the prospect of a change in ECB policy, but this may only serve to slow the recovery in EUR.  A move towards the high side of its range over recent years near 1.15 seems quite possible.

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Thomas Schroeder

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Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

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<strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Wednesday 10 May 2017</div><div><strong>Weaker EM FX ahead of a June USD low/inflection</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp1" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp1&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1494540912657000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGp90hU_MzrI0a3xmJFeSL0mLPRWg">https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp1</a></strong>12:59 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/025/816/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1494456412" data-smartkarma-image-id="25816"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
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<strong>DXY </strong>– Per expectations we did see the Euro spike briefly above 1.10 and then fade (case of sell the fact) lending support to the DXY to rally and close the 99.65 gap. We are still in a state of resolution regarding DXY 99 support with pivot resistance at 100. DXY RSI support and bull divergence is compelling but needs…</div>


Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 10 May 2017Weaker EM FX ahead of a June USD low/inflectionTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/rruLCfwnYp112:59 min.
FX webcast

DXY – Per expectations we did see the Euro spike briefly above 1.10 and then fade (case of sell the fact) lending support to the DXY to rally and close the 99.65 gap. We are still in a state of resolution regarding DXY 99 support with pivot resistance at 100. DXY RSI support and bull divergence is compelling but needs…

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<strong>Chartonics FX weekly   </strong>Thursday 4 May 2017</div><div><strong>The Le Pin pattern</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA</a> </strong>13:33 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/025/495/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1493874655" data-smartkarma-image-id="25495"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
<p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY 99 support has held with some noise and formed a “Le Pin” congestion pattern with a binary outcome due Monday. Ideally, we see the USD bounce to close the gap near 99.50. US yields starting to play a bigger role given increased odds of a June Fed rate hike but will be overshadowed by the French election move. We do feel a Macron win is for…</p>
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Chartonics FX weekly   Thursday 4 May 2017The Le Pin patternTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA 13:33 min.
FX webcast
DXY – DXY 99 support has held with some noise and formed a “Le Pin” congestion pattern with a binary outcome due Monday. Ideally, we see the USD bounce to close the gap near 99.50. US yields starting to play a bigger role given increased odds of a June Fed rate hike but will be overshadowed by the French election move. We do feel a Macron win is for…


<p>The Australian government budget next Tuesday is set to announce significant debt-financed infrastructure spending.  This contrasts with the Trump administration that touted big spending on infrastructure spending and tax reform, but then placed more emphasis on border control, immigration, health care and trade policy.  Its more pro-growth tax and infrastructure policies face an uphill battle in Congress.  Australian government budget policy is also likely to appear supportive for the housing market.  The RBA has already shown its support for infrastructure spending and is likely to sound cautiously optimistic and leave policy neutral.  The NZ labour data may be crucial for the RBNZ policy outlook.  Any evidence that tightening labour market conditions are starting to lift wage growth will put considerable pressure on the RBNZ to lift its sanguine inflation outlook after its recent stronger than expected Q1 CPI report.  The bounce in AUD and NZD on Monday from multi-month lows is at risk of extending.  EUR has baulked at the mid-1.09s in the last week, but economic momentum continues to rise relative to other major economies and political risk is easing.  UK economic momentum, on the other hand, may be ebbing, and resurgence in the GBP may stall as the EU signals it will play hardball in Brexit negotiations.</p>

The Australian government budget next Tuesday is set to announce significant debt-financed infrastructure spending.  This contrasts with the Trump administration that touted big spending on infrastructure spending and tax reform, but then placed more emphasis on border control, immigration, health care and trade policy.  Its more pro-growth tax and infrastructure policies face an uphill battle in Congress.  Australian government budget policy is also likely to appear supportive for the housing market.  The RBA has already shown its support for infrastructure spending and is likely to sound cautiously optimistic and leave policy neutral.  The NZ labour data may be crucial for the RBNZ policy outlook.  Any evidence that tightening labour market conditions are starting to lift wage growth will put considerable pressure on the RBNZ to lift its sanguine inflation outlook after its recent stronger than expected Q1 CPI report.  The bounce in AUD and NZD on Monday from multi-month lows is at risk of extending.  EUR has baulked at the mid-1.09s in the last week, but economic momentum continues to rise relative to other major economies and political risk is easing.  UK economic momentum, on the other hand, may be ebbing, and resurgence in the GBP may stall as the EU signals it will play hardball in Brexit negotiations.

<div><strong>Chartonics FX webcast</strong></div><div>Wednesday 26 April 2017</div><div><strong>DXY 99 bust</strong></div><div>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC</a> </strong>12:25 min</div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/998/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1493184186" data-smartkarma-image-id="24998"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
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<strong>DXY </strong>– DXY 99 support under threat. Prefer an uptick in the DXY to re set long Euro. Post-election euphoria needs a breather and should try to close the DXY gap at 99.50. Have implemented more USD short bets in Asian FX, BRL and CAD. Remain mixed on Sterling and bullish the Euro on a give back. Overall, we see increased downside pressure to break the 99…</div>

Chartonics FX webcastWednesday 26 April 2017DXY 99 bustTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC 12:25 min
FX webcast

DXY – DXY 99 support under threat. Prefer an uptick in the DXY to re set long Euro. Post-election euphoria needs a breather and should try to close the DXY gap at 99.50. Have implemented more USD short bets in Asian FX, BRL and CAD. Remain mixed on Sterling and bullish the Euro on a give back. Overall, we see increased downside pressure to break the 99…

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

EUR Looks like the Safe Play

The EUR has broken above the psychological 1.10 level after a lengthy and frustrating period of consolidation below this level since the first...

Greg Gibbs

Weaker EM FX with Euro Filling the Gap

Chartonics FX webcast Wednesday 10 May 2017Weaker EM FX ahead of a June USD low/inflectionTo view click on this link:...

Thomas Schroeder

The Le Pin Pattern

Chartonics FX weekly Thursday 4 May 2017The Le Pin patternTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/XSR1ZQ2GA 13:33 min. DXY –...

Thomas Schroeder

Australia to Deliver on Infrastructure

The Australian government budget next Tuesday is set to announce significant debt-financed infrastructure spending. This contrasts with the Trump...

Greg Gibbs

DXY 99 Bust

Chartonics FX webcastWednesday 26 April 2017DXY 99 bustTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/14LztChC 12:25 min DXY – DXY 99...

Thomas Schroeder

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