Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The renewed surge in emerging market equities appears increasingly at odds with the underlying fundamentals in a manner which is starting to be reminiscent of 2007, or in the case of China the aftermath of the great monetary stimulus of 2009-10. There have been five main drivers;</p><ol>
<li>dollar weakness emanating from the near-paralysis of the Trump administration;</li>
<li>global flows into technology stocks which have benefited the three emerging markets in North Asia;</li>
<li>the renewed fall in the oil price which is…</li>
</ol>

The renewed surge in emerging market equities appears increasingly at odds with the underlying fundamentals in a manner which is starting to be reminiscent of 2007, or in the case of China the aftermath of the great monetary stimulus of 2009-10. There have been five main drivers;
dollar weakness emanating from the near-paralysis of the Trump administration;
global flows into technology stocks which have benefited the three emerging markets in North Asia;
the renewed fall in the oil price which is…


Emerging Asia: Review and Outlook (Part 1 of 6)

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>DXY -</strong> Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro short covering. Immediate pivot lies at 94.20/23 and would induce further USD short covering.</p><p>Two factors that would see accelerated USD short covering are 1) A spike in yield 2) Equity fallout lending support to the USD particularly against Asian and EM FX.</p><p>Key pivot points for the USD are: 1) T-Note 125.90 is a key pivot for yield 2) USD/JPY 111 for…</p>

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro short covering. Immediate pivot lies at 94.20/23 and would induce further USD short covering.Two factors that would see accelerated USD short covering are 1) A spike in yield 2) Equity fallout lending support to the USD particularly against Asian and EM FX.Key pivot points for the USD are: 1) T-Note 125.90 is a key pivot for yield 2) USD/JPY 111 for…

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

FX & Rates

<p>In a nutshell...</p><ul><li>INDICES <ul><li>Toppish US markets below intermediate trend resistances as well as HSI, TWSE, Nifty for a pullback reaction.</li><li>Mixed even bullish EU (Remain neutral Eurostoxx whilst Dax is close to first trend support).</li><li>Nikkei holding in range/sideways above 19700 and Kospi, ASX back to intermediate supports.</li></ul></li><li>FOREX <ul><li>USD above trend support levels for a bounce reaction: <ul><li>DXY 92.00</li><li>EURUSD 1.1810/1.1900</li><li>AUDUSD 0.8100/0.8210</li><li>NZDUSD 0.7525/0.7610</li><li>USDCNH 6.7200</li><li>JPY strength across the board</li></ul></li></ul></li><li>FIXED INCOME <ul><li>Remain bearish bonds (Futures) across the board.</li></ul></li></ul>

In a nutshell...INDICES Toppish US markets below intermediate trend resistances as well as HSI, TWSE, Nifty for a pullback reaction.Mixed even bullish EU (Remain neutral Eurostoxx whilst Dax is close to first trend support).Nikkei holding in range/sideways above 19700 and Kospi, ASX back to intermediate supports.FOREX USD above trend support levels for a bounce reaction: DXY 92.00EURUSD 1.1810/1.1900AUDUSD 0.8100/0.8210NZDUSD 0.7525/0.7610USDCNH 6.7200JPY strength across the boardFIXED INCOME Remain bearish bonds (Futures) across the board.

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<strong>Chartonics FX macro </strong>Monday 23 July 2017</div><div><strong>Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lids</strong></div><p>Euro weekly chart denotes two key points:</p><p>1. Above 1.15 there is virtually no resistance until 1.20/21.</p><p>2. RSI has pierced resistance with MACD in pursuit.</p><div>This bigger picture must be combined with the daily cycle which is nearing extended territory as bull divergence brews as pointed out in our regular updates. Spikes toward 1.17 have faded in the past and this one may push marginally higher and then fade which represents the…</div>


Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lidsEuro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually no resistance until 1.20/21.2. RSI has pierced resistance with MACD in pursuit.This bigger picture must be combined with the daily cycle which is nearing extended territory as bull divergence brews as pointed out in our regular updates. Spikes toward 1.17 have faded in the past and this one may push marginally higher and then fade which represents the…

<p>EM FX basing as DXY gears up for a turn</p><div>To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/DL5Ri2RX7JCP" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/DL5Ri2RX7JCP</a> 13:12 min.</div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/030/023/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1500425277" data-smartkarma-image-id="30023"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
<p>DXY – Below DXY 99, targets DXY 96.50 and the sub 95 congestion zone near 94.50. Tactical bet was for a slide to 96.50 and then a bounce sequence to 98.20 which equated to Euro 1.13 for a fade and slide back to 1.1050-70. From this support, we see a Euro rise to 1.1415 and then the 1.15 MT peak targets which aligns with DXY 94.50 basing support.<br> <br>T-Note – Fresh uptick…</p>
</div>

EM FX basing as DXY gears up for a turnTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/DL5Ri2RX7JCP 13:12 min.
FX webcast
DXY – Below DXY 99, targets DXY 96.50 and the sub 95 congestion zone near 94.50. Tactical bet was for a slide to 96.50 and then a bounce sequence to 98.20 which equated to Euro 1.13 for a fade and slide back to 1.1050-70. From this support, we see a Euro rise to 1.1415 and then the 1.15 MT peak targets which aligns with DXY 94.50 basing support.   T-Note – Fresh uptick…


Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Emerging Asia: Review and Outlook (Part 1 of 6)

The renewed surge in emerging market equities appears increasingly at odds with the underlying fundamentals in a manner which is starting to be...

John-Paul Smith

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro...

Thomas Schroeder

BBSP Weekly Macro

In a nutshell... INDICES Toppish US markets below intermediate trend resistances as well as HSI, TWSE, Nifty for a pullback reaction. Mixed even...

BBSP Asia

FX Macro - Euro GBP and AUD

Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lidsEuro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually...

Thomas Schroeder

EM FX Basing Front Running DXY Low

EM FX basing as DXY gears up for a turnTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/DL5Ri2RX7JCP 13:12 min. DXY – Below DXY 99, targets...

Thomas Schroeder

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