FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

It is universally anticipated that the ECB announces a significant taper or reduction in the pace of its asset purchases on Thursday this week.  Expectations have settled on a halving in the monthly amount to EUR30bn, while adding nine months to the current program that ends in December this year. However, it appears that most market analysts see a risk that the ECB over-delivers with either a faster or larger taper, creating upside risk for Euro yields and the EUR.  They may be justified by the stable and solid Eurozone recovery underway.  However, the ECB has been at pains this year to avoid severe market reaction to a seemingly inevitable policy taper.  And they have expressed explicit concern over the strength in the EUR since its September policy meeting.  The ECB is likely to be very wary of exceeding taper expectations; expectations that it appears to have fed the market some weeks ago.  Market positioning appears to be quite long EUR.  In our view, the EUR is more vulnerable to a correction lower as the market shifts focus from the taper to the ECB’s low rate commitment and the wider EUR yield disadvantage this year.

It is universally anticipated that the ECB announces a significant taper or reduction in the pace of its asset purchases on Thursday this week.  Expectations have settled on a halving in the monthly amount to EUR30bn, while adding nine months to the current program that ends in December this year. However, it appears that most market analysts see a risk that the ECB over-delivers with either a faster or larger taper, creating upside risk for Euro yields and the EUR.  They may be justified by the stable and solid Eurozone recovery underway.  However, the ECB has been at pains this year to avoid severe market reaction to a seemingly inevitable policy taper.  And they have expressed explicit concern over the strength in the EUR since its September policy meeting.  The ECB is likely to be very wary of exceeding taper expectations; expectations that it appears to have fed the market some weeks ago.  Market positioning appears to be quite long EUR.  In our view, the EUR is more vulnerable to a correction lower as the market shifts focus from the taper to the ECB’s low rate commitment and the wider EUR yield disadvantage this year.

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

EURPLN has benefited from both a weaker EUR and a Zloty that continued to resist external pressure and benefit from EM attractiveness. PLN is among the best performing currencies.From a technical point of view, it exited to the downside from a longer term flat range, with a potential at 4,05, and pulled back on it at 4,33.Indicators are clearly oriented to the downside, with a Moving Average resistance at 4,2750, also new graphical line.The market is expected to range between 4.22/4.20 and…

EURPLN has benefited from both a weaker EUR and a Zloty that continued to resist external pressure and benefit from EM attractiveness. PLN is among the best performing currencies.From a technical point of view, it exited to the downside from a longer term flat range, with a potential at 4,05, and pulled back on it at 4,33.Indicators are clearly oriented to the downside, with a Moving Average resistance at 4,2750, also new graphical line.The market is expected to range between 4.22/4.20 and…

The market has spent much of this year unwinding a structural short EUR position.  Bank analysts have shifted to a bullish long-term EUR view, ECB QE taper is largely priced-in, the political risk gap between Europe and the USA has narrowed, and the EUR is now stretched from its widening yield disadvantage.  Traders appear to hold an extreme long EUR position, and a head-and-shoulders top appears to be developing; a break of recent lows might target a fall to 1.13.  The US is making progress towards tax reform, and the market is too sanguine on US inflation risks.  Traders also appear to be holding extreme long positions in CAD, the Bank of Canada has shifted its tone on its policy outlook, Canada housing market is slowing, and negotiations on NAFTA are not going well (although have been extended).

The market has spent much of this year unwinding a structural short EUR position.  Bank analysts have shifted to a bullish long-term EUR view, ECB QE taper is largely priced-in, the political risk gap between Europe and the USA has narrowed, and the EUR is now stretched from its widening yield disadvantage.  Traders appear to hold an extreme long EUR position, and a head-and-shoulders top appears to be developing; a break of recent lows might target a fall to 1.13.  The US is making progress towards tax reform, and the market is too sanguine on US inflation risks.  Traders also appear to be holding extreme long positions in CAD, the Bank of Canada has shifted its tone on its policy outlook, Canada housing market is slowing, and negotiations on NAFTA are not going well (although have been extended).

EUR and CAD Need to Square up to Growing Threats

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday.  Asian currencies led the fall, enthusiastically followed by developed market currencies, including EUR and GBP.  Political uncertainty continues to undermine the USD.  Trump’s battles with Senator Corker, the NFL, North Korea, Iran, the media, and Democrats over ‘Dreamers’ creates a sense of chaos that dampens prospects for tax reform.  Global economic recovery continues to support global equity markets, and investors are more willing to take EM currency exposure to avoid elevated political risk in the USA.  EM currencies have lagged a rebound in EM equities in the last two weeks and started to play catch-up on Tuesday.  Strong German factory orders, industrial production, and exports support the EUR.  Sentix Eurozone investor confidence also rose to a new high and Spanish separatist threats have eased.  A global economic recovery is dragging the UK along for the ride, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate hikes. UK political risk may now ease from elevated levels.

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday.  Asian currencies led the fall, enthusiastically followed by developed market currencies, including EUR and GBP.  Political uncertainty continues to undermine the USD.  Trump’s battles with Senator Corker, the NFL, North Korea, Iran, the media, and Democrats over ‘Dreamers’ creates a sense of chaos that dampens prospects for tax reform.  Global economic recovery continues to support global equity markets, and investors are more willing to take EM currency exposure to avoid elevated political risk in the USA.  EM currencies have lagged a rebound in EM equities in the last two weeks and started to play catch-up on Tuesday.  Strong German factory orders, industrial production, and exports support the EUR.  Sentix Eurozone investor confidence also rose to a new high and Spanish separatist threats have eased.  A global economic recovery is dragging the UK along for the ride, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate hikes. UK political risk may now ease from elevated levels.

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

ECB Unlikely to Over-Deliver on Taper

It is universally anticipated that the ECB announces a significant taper or reduction in the pace of its asset purchases on Thursday this week. ...

Greg Gibbs

EURPLN: Drop in Progress and Confirmed

EURPLN has benefited from both a weaker EUR and a Zloty that continued to resist external pressure and benefit from EM attractiveness. PLN is among...

Guillaume Coutant

EUR and CAD Need to Square up to Growing Threats

The market has spent much of this year unwinding a structural short EUR position. Bank analysts have shifted to a bullish long-term EUR view, ECB...

Greg Gibbs

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday. Asian...

Greg Gibbs

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month. It...

Greg Gibbs

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