FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias.  It has failed to benefit much from a fall in the USD against most currencies in a risk-on move following the US labor data.  Eurozone economic momentum has eased in recent surveys, and this is reflected in new lows in the EUR/USD short, long and real yield spreads.  Furthermore, inflation expectations have eased in the Eurozone, and its equity market has underperformed recently.  US protectionist rhetoric has become more focused against the Eurozone. AUD resilient despite softer commodity prices recently.

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias.  It has failed to benefit much from a fall in the USD against most currencies in a risk-on move following the US labor data.  Eurozone economic momentum has eased in recent surveys, and this is reflected in new lows in the EUR/USD short, long and real yield spreads.  Furthermore, inflation expectations have eased in the Eurozone, and its equity market has underperformed recently.  US protectionist rhetoric has become more focused against the Eurozone. AUD resilient despite softer commodity prices recently.

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias.  That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook deteriorated.Specifically, the removed sentence was: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.”Some, not all, analysts thought that…

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias.  That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook deteriorated.Specifically, the removed sentence was: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.”Some, not all, analysts thought that…

Draghi Take Outs – EUR Weaker Despite the Removal of Easing Bias

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind.

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind. 

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

ANTYA expects that the FOMC will raise interest rates 4 times in 2018 and maintain that trajectory for 2019 as well. Yes, we are calling for a 3.5% federal funds rate by the end of 2019, and assuming spreads stay constant a 4.0% yield on the one-year U.S. Government Bond.Our forecast implies a stronger dollar, weaker Asian currencies, and much weaker equity markets in Asia ex-Japan over the next few years.

ANTYA expects that the FOMC will raise interest rates 4 times in 2018 and maintain that trajectory for 2019 as well. Yes, we are calling for a 3.5% federal funds rate by the end of 2019, and assuming spreads stay constant a 4.0% yield on the one-year U.S. Government Bond.Our forecast implies a stronger dollar, weaker Asian currencies, and much weaker equity markets in Asia ex-Japan over the next few years. 

Eight Hikes – 4 in 2018, and 4 in 2019 – What Does that Do to Asian Equity Markets?

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies, including EUR and AUD, appear to be more at risk than the USD.  USD/JPY may be finding a base after testing significant support near 105.  The Fed has turned somewhat more hawkish, the US economy has gained momentum, the Euro economy has lost some momentum and the Italian economy is likely to suffer in the political wilderness.

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies, including EUR and AUD, appear to be more at risk than the USD.  USD/JPY may be finding a base after testing significant support near 105.  The Fed has turned somewhat more hawkish, the US economy has gained momentum, the Euro economy has lost some momentum and the Italian economy is likely to suffer in the political wilderness. 

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Cracks Widening in EUR’s Foundations

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias. It has failed to benefit much from a fall in...

Greg Gibbs

Draghi Take Outs – EUR Weaker Despite the Removal of Easing Bias

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias. That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Vs. Free Trade Orthodoxy

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an...

Greg Gibbs

Eight Hikes – 4 in 2018, and 4 in 2019 – What Does that Do to Asian Equity Markets?

ANTYA expects that the FOMC will raise interest rates 4 times in 2018 and maintain that trajectory for 2019 as well. Yes, we are calling for a 3.5%...

ANTYA Investments

EUR and AUD Risks Ignored for How Long?

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies,...

Greg Gibbs

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