FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates?  Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates.  But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies.  We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.  Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets.

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates?  Some have argued that the implied tightening in financial conditions in their home countries may delay central bank rate hikes and undermine their exchange rates.  But this seems to ignore the fact that the spread widening has placed direct upward pressure on the effective carry from holding long positions in the USD and the AUD against other currencies.  We look specifically at the carry for 3mth and 2yr terms for the EUR/USD and AUD/USD.  Overall, FX markets remain difficult to call, and patience is required as the market grapples with tariffs, political uncertainty, and volatile equity markets. 

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat.  The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting the USD. The market is looking for some upward revision to the dot-plot.  Eurozone confidence and inflation expectations have eased.  EUR yield spreads deteriorate to new lows.  AUD may have been undermined by weaker metals prices and risks to Chinese growth; including from the US protectionist threats.  The Australian employment report this week and improving prospects for corporate tax cuts may help support the AUD, but the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, and Financial Services Industry, and slowing housing market may be undermining investor demand for the AUD.

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat.  The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting the USD. The market is looking for some upward revision to the dot-plot.  Eurozone confidence and inflation expectations have eased.  EUR yield spreads deteriorate to new lows.  AUD may have been undermined by weaker metals prices and risks to Chinese growth; including from the US protectionist threats.  The Australian employment report this week and improving prospects for corporate tax cuts may help support the AUD, but the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, and Financial Services Industry, and slowing housing market may be undermining investor demand for the AUD.

USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX. Stay long JPY and NOK. Consider short EUR-GBP and long Russia equities and OFZ (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/russia-strategy-cyclical-mettle-vs-meddling-structural-and-geopolitical-challenges" target="_blank">Russia Strategy: Cyclical Mettle Vs. Meddling Challenges</a>, 16 Mar-18).</li><li>Monday: Japan trade, China property px, Chile GDP, G20 (19-20 Mar), UK Davis-EU Barnier meeting</li><li>Tuesday: RBA minutes, UK CPI, Germany ZEW, South Africa CPI, Colombia BanRep/Chile BCCh MPC, Saudi MBS meets Trump</li><li>Wednesday: UK jobs, US existing home sales, FOMC, Malaysia CPI, Brazil BCB MPC, Argentina GDP</li><li>Thursday: NZ RBNZ MPC, Australia jobs, Japan/France/Germany flash PMI, Germany IFO, ECB Economic Bulletin, UK retails, BOE MPC, US PMI, Philippines BSP/Taiwan CBC/Indonesia BI MPC, EU Summit (22-23 Mar)</li><li>Friday: Japan/Canada CPI, US durables/new home sales, Russia CBR MPC, Italy parliament reopens, US spending bill deadline, South Africa Moody's decision</li><li>Corporate earnings: Oracle, Rosneft (Mon), Sberbank, Fedex (Tue), Tencent, Lukoil (Wed), Nike, Micron (Thu), Petrochina, Wynn Macau (Fri)</li><li>Market holidays: Japan (Wed)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX. Stay long JPY and NOK. Consider short EUR-GBP and long Russia equities and OFZ (see Russia Strategy: Cyclical Mettle Vs. Meddling Challenges, 16 Mar-18).Monday: Japan trade, China property px, Chile GDP, G20 (19-20 Mar), UK Davis-EU Barnier meetingTuesday: RBA minutes, UK CPI, Germany ZEW, South Africa CPI, Colombia BanRep/Chile BCCh MPC, Saudi MBS meets TrumpWednesday: UK jobs, US existing home sales, FOMC, Malaysia CPI, Brazil BCB MPC, Argentina GDPThursday: NZ RBNZ MPC, Australia jobs, Japan/France/Germany flash PMI, Germany IFO, ECB Economic Bulletin, UK retails, BOE MPC, US PMI, Philippines BSP/Taiwan CBC/Indonesia BI MPC, EU Summit (22-23 Mar)Friday: Japan/Canada CPI, US durables/new home sales, Russia CBR MPC, Italy parliament reopens, US spending bill deadline, South Africa Moody's decisionCorporate earnings: Oracle, Rosneft (Mon), Sberbank, Fedex (Tue), Tencent, Lukoil (Wed), Nike, Micron (Thu), Petrochina, Wynn Macau (Fri)Market holidays: Japan (Wed)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC, BOE, EU Summit, NPC Wrap, RBNZ, BSP, CBR/BCB Cuts, Moody's on SA

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  The close outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday points to Democratic momentum.  US political risk over the last year has appeared to contribute to a broad USD decline.  However, there are reasons to be less sure that EM and commodity currencies will benefit going forward; Trump is pursuing protectionist trade policies, and equity markets have become more volatile.  Draghi was upbeat but warned on risks to the inflation outlook from a possible trade war and a strong EUR that cannot be fully explained by stronger Eurozone economic growth.

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  The close outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday points to Democratic momentum.  US political risk over the last year has appeared to contribute to a broad USD decline.  However, there are reasons to be less sure that EM and commodity currencies will benefit going forward; Trump is pursuing protectionist trade policies, and equity markets have become more volatile.  Draghi was upbeat but warned on risks to the inflation outlook from a possible trade war and a strong EUR that cannot be fully explained by stronger Eurozone economic growth.

US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD

What does the widening in USD and AUD LIBOR/OIS spreads and higher cross-currency swap basis mean for their exchange rates? Some have argued that...

Greg Gibbs

USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat. The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting...

Greg Gibbs

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC, BOE, EU Summit, NPC Wrap, RBNZ, BSP, CBR/BCB Cuts, Moody's on SA

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX....

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or...

Greg Gibbs

USD Major Cycle Low in Sight

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)