Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX. Stay long JPY and NOK. Consider short EUR-GBP and long Russia equities and OFZ (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/russia-strategy-cyclical-mettle-vs-meddling-structural-and-geopolitical-challenges" target="_blank">Russia Strategy: Cyclical Mettle Vs. Meddling Challenges</a>, 16 Mar-18).</li><li>Monday: Japan trade, China property px, Chile GDP, G20 (19-20 Mar), UK Davis-EU Barnier meeting</li><li>Tuesday: RBA minutes, UK CPI, Germany ZEW, South Africa CPI, Colombia BanRep/Chile BCCh MPC, Saudi MBS meets Trump</li><li>Wednesday: UK jobs, US existing home sales, FOMC, Malaysia CPI, Brazil BCB MPC, Argentina GDP</li><li>Thursday: NZ RBNZ MPC, Australia jobs, Japan/France/Germany flash PMI, Germany IFO, ECB Economic Bulletin, UK retails, BOE MPC, US PMI, Philippines BSP/Taiwan CBC/Indonesia BI MPC, EU Summit (22-23 Mar)</li><li>Friday: Japan/Canada CPI, US durables/new home sales, Russia CBR MPC, Italy parliament reopens, US spending bill deadline, South Africa Moody's decision</li><li>Corporate earnings: Oracle, Rosneft (Mon), Sberbank, Fedex (Tue), Tencent, Lukoil (Wed), Nike, Micron (Thu), Petrochina, Wynn Macau (Fri)</li><li>Market holidays: Japan (Wed)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX. Stay long JPY and NOK. Consider short EUR-GBP and long Russia equities and OFZ (see Russia Strategy: Cyclical Mettle Vs. Meddling Challenges, 16 Mar-18).Monday: Japan trade, China property px, Chile GDP, G20 (19-20 Mar), UK Davis-EU Barnier meetingTuesday: RBA minutes, UK CPI, Germany ZEW, South Africa CPI, Colombia BanRep/Chile BCCh MPC, Saudi MBS meets TrumpWednesday: UK jobs, US existing home sales, FOMC, Malaysia CPI, Brazil BCB MPC, Argentina GDPThursday: NZ RBNZ MPC, Australia jobs, Japan/France/Germany flash PMI, Germany IFO, ECB Economic Bulletin, UK retails, BOE MPC, US PMI, Philippines BSP/Taiwan CBC/Indonesia BI MPC, EU Summit (22-23 Mar)Friday: Japan/Canada CPI, US durables/new home sales, Russia CBR MPC, Italy parliament reopens, US spending bill deadline, South Africa Moody's decisionCorporate earnings: Oracle, Rosneft (Mon), Sberbank, Fedex (Tue), Tencent, Lukoil (Wed), Nike, Micron (Thu), Petrochina, Wynn Macau (Fri)Market holidays: Japan (Wed)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC, BOE, EU Summit, NPC Wrap, RBNZ, BSP, CBR/BCB Cuts, Moody's on SA

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  The close outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday points to Democratic momentum.  US political risk over the last year has appeared to contribute to a broad USD decline.  However, there are reasons to be less sure that EM and commodity currencies will benefit going forward; Trump is pursuing protectionist trade policies, and equity markets have become more volatile.  Draghi was upbeat but warned on risks to the inflation outlook from a possible trade war and a strong EUR that cannot be fully explained by stronger Eurozone economic growth.

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  The close outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday points to Democratic momentum.  US political risk over the last year has appeared to contribute to a broad USD decline.  However, there are reasons to be less sure that EM and commodity currencies will benefit going forward; Trump is pursuing protectionist trade policies, and equity markets have become more volatile.  Draghi was upbeat but warned on risks to the inflation outlook from a possible trade war and a strong EUR that cannot be fully explained by stronger Eurozone economic growth.

US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD outflows. Our cycle work is leaning to a final bout of USD weakness into our DXY 87 turn target zone that would act as a key turning point for the dollar.We have a key line in the sand for the 10yr yield at 3% above which would start to lend support for a USD bottom. The current yield posture implies we waffle within a correction falling wedge pattern…

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias.  It has failed to benefit much from a fall in the USD against most currencies in a risk-on move following the US labor data.  Eurozone economic momentum has eased in recent surveys, and this is reflected in new lows in the EUR/USD short, long and real yield spreads.  Furthermore, inflation expectations have eased in the Eurozone, and its equity market has underperformed recently.  US protectionist rhetoric has become more focused against the Eurozone. AUD resilient despite softer commodity prices recently.

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias.  It has failed to benefit much from a fall in the USD against most currencies in a risk-on move following the US labor data.  Eurozone economic momentum has eased in recent surveys, and this is reflected in new lows in the EUR/USD short, long and real yield spreads.  Furthermore, inflation expectations have eased in the Eurozone, and its equity market has underperformed recently.  US protectionist rhetoric has become more focused against the Eurozone. AUD resilient despite softer commodity prices recently.

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias.  That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook deteriorated.Specifically, the removed sentence was: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.”Some, not all, analysts thought that…

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias.  That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook deteriorated.Specifically, the removed sentence was: “If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration.”Some, not all, analysts thought that…

Draghi Take Outs – EUR Weaker Despite the Removal of Easing Bias

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC, BOE, EU Summit, NPC Wrap, RBNZ, BSP, CBR/BCB Cuts, Moody's on SA

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Tactical short Netflix and Tesla vs SPX....

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or...

Greg Gibbs

USD Major Cycle Low in Sight

USD downside momentum and conviction has tapered off with the prospect of higher yields down the road but recent weakness has been more about USD...

Thomas Schroeder

Cracks Widening in EUR’s Foundations

The EUR has struggled since the ECB meeting last week, despite a surprise removal of an easing bias. It has failed to benefit much from a fall in...

Greg Gibbs

Draghi Take Outs – EUR Weaker Despite the Removal of Easing Bias

The ECB removed a key element of its easing bias. That was a statement that they were prepared to expand its asset purchase plan if the outlook...

Greg Gibbs

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