Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

Time and time again in the past five weeks US Treasuries and the S&amp;P 500 have sold off and the Dollar rallied in the wake of hawkish US surprises only for markets to quickly unwind these moves. Volatility in US financial markets has ultimately remained subdued and directionality has been limited. In the month to 3rd June US Treasury yields rose only very marginally and the S&amp;P 500 was broadly unchanged. Notably the Dollar NEER weakened a further 1%, suggesting that markets’ appetite to short the Dollar was not significantly curtailed by these bouts of inflation-concerns.Moreover, quasi-dormant US financial markets have since come to life (or at least a semblance of life), with the 10-year Treasury yield down 13bp to a 3-month low of 1.49% and the until-recently stagnant S&amp;P 500 up 0.8% to a new record-high of 4,227 on 8th June.The erosion of the Dollar’s long-term real yield and rally in riskier assets have resulted in the “safe-haven” Dollar NEER depreciating a further 0.8% to its weakest level since late-April 2018. The Dollar NEER has now weakened over 2% since 19th April, to a 37-month low, in line with our bearish Dollar outlook. Our take is that markets’ belief that the current spike in year-on-year US inflation above the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target will be permanent has further eroded. As we argued a fortnight ago, markets are rightly in our view not (yet) buying into the notion that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” and will have no choice but to announce in the near-term a tightening of US monetary policy.The bottom line is that “wait-and-see” is still seemingly the default setting for most developed central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.Some analysts have argued that the release tomorrow of US CPI-inflation data for May, even if in line with consensus forecasts, could prove to be the straw that finally breaks the markets’ dovish back. Based on precedent we do not think this will the case.

Time and time again in the past five weeks US Treasuries and the S&amp;P 500 have sold off and the Dollar rallied in the wake of hawkish US surprises only for markets to quickly unwind these moves. Volatility in US financial markets has ultimately remained subdued and directionality has been limited. In the month to 3rd June US Treasury yields rose only very marginally and the S&amp;P 500 was broadly unchanged. Notably the Dollar NEER weakened a further 1%, suggesting that markets’ appetite to short the Dollar was not significantly curtailed by these bouts of inflation-concerns.Moreover, quasi-dormant US financial markets have since come to life (or at least a semblance of life), with the 10-year Treasury yield down 13bp to a 3-month low of 1.49% and the until-recently stagnant S&amp;P 500 up 0.8% to a new record-high of 4,227 on 8th June.The erosion of the Dollar’s long-term real yield and rally in riskier assets have resulted in the “safe-haven” Dollar NEER depreciating a further 0.8% to its weakest level since late-April 2018. The Dollar NEER has now weakened over 2% since 19th April, to a 37-month low, in line with our bearish Dollar outlook. Our take is that markets’ belief that the current spike in year-on-year US inflation above the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target will be permanent has further eroded. As we argued a fortnight ago, markets are rightly in our view not (yet) buying into the notion that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” and will have no choice but to announce in the near-term a tightening of US monetary policy.The bottom line is that “wait-and-see” is still seemingly the default setting for most developed central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.Some analysts have argued that the release tomorrow of US CPI-inflation data for May, even if in line with consensus forecasts, could prove to be the straw that finally breaks the markets’ dovish back. Based on precedent we do not think this will the case. 

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US dollar is resuming its long-term downtrend</li>
<li>Net supply of international safe assets increasing. US Treasury adding more supply when needs of  ‘liquid’ private sector dropping</li>
<li>Already foreigners selling US bonds and switching into cyclical US risk assets</li>
<li>Liquidity factors are negative on the US dollar and warn of a 10-15% drop</li>
<li>Adding capital outflows, US dollar fall could exceed 20%</li>
</ul>


US dollar is resuming its long-term downtrend
Net supply of international safe assets increasing. US Treasury adding more supply when needs of  ‘liquid’ private sector dropping
Already foreigners selling US bonds and switching into cyclical US risk assets
Liquidity factors are negative on the US dollar and warn of a 10-15% drop
Adding capital outflows, US dollar fall could exceed 20%


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

In this note, we argue that as volatility spills over from rising US yields, it may be better to hedge a broad EM currency exposure with the euro rather than reducing it.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

In this note, we argue that as volatility spills over from rising US yields, it may be better to hedge a broad EM currency exposure with the euro rather than reducing it.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Hedge EM Currencies with Euro as Volatility Rises

In this note, we evaluate whether hedging with the euro would have helped ameliorate losses from EM currencies over the past couple of months stemming from the spillover from rising US rates.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we evaluate whether hedging with the euro would have helped ameliorate losses from EM currencies over the past couple of months stemming from the spillover from rising US rates.The attached file is a snapshot of EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market.

FX Dashboard: How Well Would a Euro Hedge Have Worked for EM?

In today's note, we look at the EM FX-EUR correlation and recommend funding positions in EM currencies in euro for the time being. The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

In today's note, we look at the EM FX-EUR correlation and recommend funding positions in EM currencies in euro for the time being. The attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market, which we produce daily, and where we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to the broad market. The analysis, therefore, is not a forecasting tool but to be used for identifying dislocations, which we loosely define as price moves that cannot be justified by fundamentals.

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Have Hawks Finally Lost Altitude?

Recent price action - US yields and USD down - suggests markets increasingly less concerned about US inflation and risk of a hawkish Fed surprise....

Olivier Desbarres

High Odds Of A US Dollar Bear Market?

Prospective capital outflows following a 'perfect storm' and deteriorating domestic finances could overshadow the US dollar. We foresee a 10-15%...

Michael J. Howell

FX Dashboard: Hedge EM Currencies with Euro as Volatility Rises

In this note, we argue that as volatility spills over from rising US yields, it may be better to hedge a broad EM currency exposure with the euro...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: How Well Would a Euro Hedge Have Worked for EM?

In this note, we evaluate whether hedging with the euro would have helped ameliorate losses from EM currencies over the past couple of months...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Fund EM FX in EUR

Attached is our daily FX Dashboard that highlights dislocations in EM currency markets. In today's note, we discuss EM FX-EUR correlation and...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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