Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.</li><li>In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.</li><li>This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.</li></ul>

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could drive up the curve allowing the Fed to tighten a little less in the front.In this piece, we are going to take a deep dive into central balance sheet structures in the US and in Europe, which reveals that the ECB is much more determined in its attempts to bring liquidity down relative to the Fed.This is another reason to expect EUR-flation to drop faster than USD-flation.

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

<ul><li>Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro.</li><li>I have spent the first few evenings in Spain investigating the intriguing differences between Europe and the US in monetary terms.</li><li>Conclusions up front:USD monetary trends keep outpacing EUR peers, leaving a stickier inflation picture ahead in the US.</li></ul>

Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro.I have spent the first few evenings in Spain investigating the intriguing differences between Europe and the US in monetary terms.Conclusions up front:USD monetary trends keep outpacing EUR peers, leaving a stickier inflation picture ahead in the US.

Money Watch: Monetary trends scream >2% inflation still (in the US)

<ul><li>We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.</li><li>Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.</li><li>Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.</li></ul>

We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The extreme volatility in the USD curve continues and Jay Powell gave a green light to further curve steepening by hinting that term premias could...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

Money Watch: Monetary trends scream >2% inflation still (in the US)

Being away from the desk for a few days allows me to take a step back and ponder about some of the biggies in global macro. I have spent the first...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook

Happy Sunday everyone and welcome to our flagship editorial!I will keep it short and sweet this week on my way to Mallorca! We have now formalized...

Steno Research

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