Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Conclusions up front:1) A long USD bet is a good way to express 1) strong US data seasonality compared to peers until year-end and a bet on extreme help from spreadsheets / seasonal adjustments in the ISMs, 2) The oil market is the only cyclical market not responding to the current positivity.</li><li>Will we see a ketchup effect should OPEC+ deliver next week?</li><li>3) EUR-duration continues to look attractive ahead of a likely soft CPI print next week.</li></ul>

Conclusions up front:1) A long USD bet is a good way to express 1) strong US data seasonality compared to peers until year-end and a bet on extreme help from spreadsheets / seasonal adjustments in the ISMs, 2) The oil market is the only cyclical market not responding to the current positivity.Will we see a ketchup effect should OPEC+ deliver next week?3) EUR-duration continues to look attractive ahead of a likely soft CPI print next week.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Main points: Fed is riding a blind horse by letting the market dictate policy as we enter Q1 and we think that the cumulative effect of the great tightening along with the pending lags won’t be undone by the temporary easing of Financial Conditions</li><li>Rates will struggle to keep up at these levels as the disinflation (also) has a tightening component to it if rates don’t follow suit</li><li>Current labour market easing we have seen since peak is still consistent with usual recessionary patterns but is unlike to evolve in a linear manner from here.</li></ul>

Main points: Fed is riding a blind horse by letting the market dictate policy as we enter Q1 and we think that the cumulative effect of the great tightening along with the pending lags won’t be undone by the temporary easing of Financial ConditionsRates will struggle to keep up at these levels as the disinflation (also) has a tightening component to it if rates don’t follow suitCurrent labour market easing we have seen since peak is still consistent with usual recessionary patterns but is unlike to evolve in a linear manner from here.

Out of the Box #24 : Too Little Too Late Powell?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.</li><li>This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.</li></ul>

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

<ul><li>In this piece, we will try to assess the USD outlook in a structured way by looking at:1) Relative rates, 2) Relative inflation, 3) Relative Growth, 4) Relative energy.</li><li>We combine the four filters in an aggregate probability-based model and find that the USD is still likely to increase in value for the next few months.</li><li>Let’s have a look at the details.</li></ul>

In this piece, we will try to assess the USD outlook in a structured way by looking at:1) Relative rates, 2) Relative inflation, 3) Relative Growth, 4) Relative energy.We combine the four filters in an aggregate probability-based model and find that the USD is still likely to increase in value for the next few months.Let’s have a look at the details.

USD’o’meter: Is King USD about to reverse?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Portfolio Watch: The last dance?

Conclusions up front:1) A long USD bet is a good way to express 1) strong US data seasonality compared to peers until year-end and a bet on...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #24 : Too Little Too Late Powell?

We have been rather vocal about how we find that the odds of a hike are perhaps a bit higher than what the market is willing to accept at this point.

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline

We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling. This...

Steno Research

USD’o’meter: Is King USD about to reverse?

In this piece, we will try to assess the USD outlook in a structured way by looking at:1) Relative rates, 2) Relative inflation, 3) Relative...

Steno Research

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