Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.</li><li>Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.</li><li>While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.</li></ul>

As we move beyond the final Fed decision of the year, we can speculate on how the EM space may respond to Powell’s press conference tonight.Before diving into that, let’s discuss some recent developments that have occurred in China since our last update on the situation in Beijing.While the market and all the mainstream news outlets have been awaiting the third plenum to take place in vain,  China’s Central Economic Work Conference was held the past two days.

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.</li>
<li>The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.</li>
<li>115 bps of cuts in 2024.</li>
</ul>


It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.
The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.
115 bps of cuts in 2024.


5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

<ul><li>Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details</li><li>The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the data</li><li>Several indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures</li></ul>

Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the detailsThe FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on the dataSeveral indicators point to a re-acceleration in underlying price pressures

USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise

<ul><li>As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.</li><li>Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…</li><li>Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.</li></ul>

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…Paired with rising compensation plans, it makes for an odd and almost stagflationary cocktail.

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

EM by EM #34: Xi’s Whip and Powell’s Kneeling

Despite aiming for growth, China won’t employ potent fiscal or monetary policies; instead, the focus is on boosting confidence and shaping a...

Steno Research

5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with...

Steno Research

USD CPI Review – A slightly hawkish surprise

Conclusions up front: A hawkish CPI surprise, especially in the details. The FOMC can construct both a dovish and a hawkish narrative based on...

Steno Research

US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)