External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Our team’s preview expects the majority of 3Q24 earnings to be in line with expectations, which should cement our FY24F EPS growth expectation of 7.6%, though consensus 12-month fwd. growth has recently been downgraded to 5.8%.</li><li>UNVR big miss. A combination of weak volume and price and additional opex in 3Q24 have driven -47% qoq/ -62% yoy net profit drop, with management signaling turnaround only by 3Q25.</li><li>Our analyst, Natalia, had a Sell rating prior to the results and trimmed our TP further to Rp1,900 post the disappointing 3Q24 results.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our team’s preview expects the majority of 3Q24 earnings to be in line with expectations, which should cement our FY24F EPS growth expectation of 7.6%, though consensus 12-month fwd. growth has recently been downgraded to 5.8%.UNVR big miss. A combination of weak volume and price and additional opex in 3Q24 have driven -47% qoq/ -62% yoy net profit drop, with management signaling turnaround only by 3Q25.Our analyst, Natalia, had a Sell rating prior to the results and trimmed our TP further to Rp1,900 post the disappointing 3Q24 results.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Restocking May Continue to Support NPI Price

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

<ul><li>On October 24, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced its ready-to-sell USD (spot) to commercial banks at 25,450.</li><li>We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.</li><li>Rising DXY and domestic demand place pressure on FX US inflation cooled down in recent months and a 50-bps policy rate cut announced by the Fed in its September meeting helped to support the VND to appreciate 1.5% against the USD in August and 1.2% in September.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On October 24, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced its ready-to-sell USD (spot) to commercial banks at 25,450.We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.Rising DXY and domestic demand place pressure on FX US inflation cooled down in recent months and a 50-bps policy rate cut announced by the Fed in its September meeting helped to support the VND to appreciate 1.5% against the USD in August and 1.2% in September.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vietnam Macro Note - SBV announces readiness to sell USD

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Cabinet formation: coalition completed. The names of Minister and Vice Minister announced in President Prabowo’s cabinet comprise representation of political parties (ex-PDIP) and existing ministers under Pres. Jokowi, including MoF Mrs. Sri Mulyani.</li><li>In our view, the latter should cement a positive outlook for Indonesia’s stability while the overall cabinet posture shall ensure the delivery of programs continuity.</li><li>ACES (Buy, TP Rp1,100): strong SSSG continues at 8.8% in Sep24. ACES is our analyst’s top pick in the retail sector. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cabinet formation: coalition completed. The names of Minister and Vice Minister announced in President Prabowo’s cabinet comprise representation of political parties (ex-PDIP) and existing ministers under Pres. Jokowi, including MoF Mrs. Sri Mulyani.In our view, the latter should cement a positive outlook for Indonesia’s stability while the overall cabinet posture shall ensure the delivery of programs continuity.ACES (Buy, TP Rp1,100): strong SSSG continues at 8.8% in Sep24. ACES is our analyst’s top pick in the retail sector. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Foreign Equity Flow Returned to JCI

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Easing US inflation since early summer has paved the way for US rate cuts starting in September.</li><li>We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter, waiting until December for their second move.</li><li>More sticky Eurozone inflation means the ECB will also move at the same quaterly pace.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Easing US inflation since early summer has paved the way for US rate cuts starting in September.We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter, waiting until December for their second move.More sticky Eurozone inflation means the ECB will also move at the same quaterly pace.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major forecasts: Inflation low enough for the Fed

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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FX Forecast Update—October 2023

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).

Scotiabank

BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the Week – Restocking May Continue to Support NPI Price

Our team’s preview expects the majority of 3Q24 earnings to be in line with expectations, which should cement our FY24F EPS growth expectation of 7.6%

BRI Danareksa Research

Vietnam Macro Note - SBV announces readiness to sell USD

We believe the SBV’s latest move aims to ease sentiment in the FX market given rising pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in recent weeks.

Vietcap

BRIDS Market Pulse : Chart of the week – Foreign Equity Flow Returned to JCI

The names of Minister and Vice Minister announced in President Prabowo’s cabinet comprise representation of political parties (ex-PDIP) and...

BRI Danareksa Research

Major forecasts: Inflation low enough for the Fed

We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter,...

Nordea

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