FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up expectations it would begin its asset run-off later this year, after one or two more rate hikes. The fall in equities in recent weeks and lower bond yields may reflect the Trump administration’s setbacks and falling confidence that it can deliver tax reform. Additionally, there may be some worries over geopolitical risks as gas attacks in Syria and ballistic missile tests in North Korea add pressure on the Trump administration. As yet there is also no smoking gun on inflation in the USA and some mixed economic reports recently.  Lower equities and yields continue to support JPY and gold.  However, the Trump/Xi meeting has the potential to deliver soothing rhetoric for the equity market, and the ADP employment report was again much stronger than expected, raising the odds of a strong payrolls report.  This may lift US yields, and support the USD/JPY from the low end of its current range.  Much may depend on the wages data and indicators of tightness in labor market.

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up expectations it would begin its asset run-off later this year, after one or two more rate hikes. The fall in equities in recent weeks and lower bond yields may reflect the Trump administration’s setbacks and falling confidence that it can deliver tax reform. Additionally, there may be some worries over geopolitical risks as gas attacks in Syria and ballistic missile tests in North Korea add pressure on the Trump administration. As yet there is also no smoking gun on inflation in the USA and some mixed economic reports recently.  Lower equities and yields continue to support JPY and gold.  However, the Trump/Xi meeting has the potential to deliver soothing rhetoric for the equity market, and the ADP employment report was again much stronger than expected, raising the odds of a strong payrolls report.  This may lift US yields, and support the USD/JPY from the low end of its current range.  Much may depend on the wages data and indicators of tightness in labor market.

Market yet to React to Approaching Fed Asset Run-Off

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

The February report on personal income, consumer spending and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices for the U.S. was published on Friday.  Personal income rose 0.4% in February and real disposable income increased 0.2% in the month.  Nominal consumer spending rose 0.1% in February but declined 0.1% in inflation-adjusted terms.  Overall PCE prices rose 0.1% in February, raising the year-over-year headline inflation rate to 2.1% from 1.9%.  Core PCE prices (excluding food and energy) rose…

The February report on personal income, consumer spending and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices for the U.S. was published on Friday.  Personal income rose 0.4% in February and real disposable income increased 0.2% in the month.  Nominal consumer spending rose 0.1% in February but declined 0.1% in inflation-adjusted terms.  Overall PCE prices rose 0.1% in February, raising the year-over-year headline inflation rate to 2.1% from 1.9%.  Core PCE prices (excluding food and energy) rose…

Rebutting Conventional Wisdom Takes on the U.S. Consumer, Inflation and the Fed from the Latest Data

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China, and central banks that are sending mixed signals.  There are contradictions in the market with very high consumer confidence in the USA, but a deteriorating approval rating for President Trump. Strong surveys, but modest economic activity readings. Ongoing optimism for tax reform in the US equity markets, but doubts apparent in somewhat lower US bond yields.  We continue to see risks of the Trump aura in equities fading on the tough road to tax reform.  This could undermine the USD further in coming months.  The EUR may benefit as evidence of recovery builds and French political risks fade.

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China, and central banks that are sending mixed signals.  There are contradictions in the market with very high consumer confidence in the USA, but a deteriorating approval rating for President Trump. Strong surveys, but modest economic activity readings. Ongoing optimism for tax reform in the US equity markets, but doubts apparent in somewhat lower US bond yields.  We continue to see risks of the Trump aura in equities fading on the tough road to tax reform.  This could undermine the USD further in coming months.  The EUR may benefit as evidence of recovery builds and French political risks fade. 

The outlook for the USD looks weaker on a number of counts – Trump optimism has faded, the Fed has emphasized a gradual approach, and recent US economic data is more mixed.  In contrast, political risk is ebbing in the Eurozone and activity indicators have accelerated.  US equities look relatively expensive, and the market may view EUR as basing, looking ahead to the time when ECB ends its QE/NIRP.  AUD has significantly underperformed over the last two weeks.  It appears to be undermined by angst over its domestic housing market, energy shortages and broader political uncertainty leading up to the May budget. Higher interest rates and corporate bond yields in China and ebbing iron ore prices may also be dampening the AUD.

The outlook for the USD looks weaker on a number of counts – Trump optimism has faded, the Fed has emphasized a gradual approach, and recent US economic data is more mixed.  In contrast, political risk is ebbing in the Eurozone and activity indicators have accelerated.  US equities look relatively expensive, and the market may view EUR as basing, looking ahead to the time when ECB ends its QE/NIRP.  AUD has significantly underperformed over the last two weeks.  It appears to be undermined by angst over its domestic housing market, energy shortages and broader political uncertainty leading up to the May budget. Higher interest rates and corporate bond yields in China and ebbing iron ore prices may also be dampening the AUD.

USA Confidence Fades, EUR Fortunes Rise, AUD Angst Builds

We would have preferred the Trump Administration to have made tax reform (particularly of the corporate tax code) the first legislative priority coming into the White House.  However, the Administration and Congressional leadership argued there were procedural issues related to the budget that required health care to be tackled before taxes.  But reforming health care, which is one sixth of the U.S. economy and has massive budgetary and distributional considerations, was always going to get…

We would have preferred the Trump Administration to have made tax reform (particularly of the corporate tax code) the first legislative priority coming into the White House.  However, the Administration and Congressional leadership argued there were procedural issues related to the budget that required health care to be tackled before taxes.  But reforming health care, which is one sixth of the U.S. economy and has massive budgetary and distributional considerations, was always going to get…

Quick Thoughts on the Outlook for U.S. Tax Reform Following the Failed Health Care Effort

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Market yet to React to Approaching Fed Asset Run-Off

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up...

Greg Gibbs

Rebutting Conventional Wisdom Takes on the U.S. Consumer, Inflation and the Fed from the Latest Data

The February report on personal income, consumer spending and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices for the U.S. was published on Friday....

RDQ Economics

Uncertainty and Contradictions

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China,...

Greg Gibbs

USA Confidence Fades, EUR Fortunes Rise, AUD Angst Builds

The outlook for the USD looks weaker on a number of counts – Trump optimism has faded, the Fed has emphasized a gradual approach, and recent US...

Greg Gibbs

Quick Thoughts on the Outlook for U.S. Tax Reform Following the Failed Health Care Effort

We would have preferred the Trump Administration to have made tax reform (particularly of the corporate tax code) the first legislative priority...

RDQ Economics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)