Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/045/485/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-02-26%20at%208.47.40%20AM.png?1519597166" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="45485"></figure><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Evidence is building by the day that the US's economy late-cycle boom is now reaching boiling point in a text-book case of overheating</strong> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-is-the-us-overheating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17918">Chart of the Day: Is the US Overheating?</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-smouldering-intensity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17953">Chart of the Day: Smouldering Intensity</a>). Inflationary pressure, in turn, is now undeniably rearing its head with 'core-core' inflation jumping (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-us-inflation-turns-scary" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17743">Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary</a>) and upstream, 'pipeline' pressures also building as corporate pricing power returns (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-us-inflation-turns-scary-part-2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17816">Chart of the Day: US Inflation</a>…</p></div>

Evidence is building by the day that the US's economy late-cycle boom is now reaching boiling point in a text-book case of overheating (see Chart of the Day: Is the US Overheating? and Chart of the Day: Smouldering Intensity). Inflationary pressure, in turn, is now undeniably rearing its head with 'core-core' inflation jumping (see Chart of the Day: US Inflation Turns Scary) and upstream, 'pipeline' pressures also building as corporate pricing power returns (see Chart of the Day: US Inflation…

Chart of the Day: What Trump Should Be Tweeting About!

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/045/322/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-02-23%20at%2012.21.52%20PM.png?1519350746" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="45322"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was a famous data maven, reportedly regaling his FOMC colleagues with arcane data series such as forklift truck sales in the Mid-West. Although now almost 90, the former 'Maestro' remains impressively active and, like the rest of us, is probably looking for additional data to answer the key question du jour (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-is-the-us-overheating" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17918">Chart of the Day: Is the US Overheating?</a>). </p>
<p>As highlighted yesterday, an ISM employment balance at record levels signals a decisive acceleration in the pace of…</p>
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Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was a famous data maven, reportedly regaling his FOMC colleagues with arcane data series such as forklift truck sales in the Mid-West. Although now almost 90, the former 'Maestro' remains impressively active and, like the rest of us, is probably looking for additional data to answer the key question du jour (see Chart of the Day: Is the US Overheating?). 
As highlighted yesterday, an ISM employment balance at record levels signals a decisive acceleration in the pace of…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or long term yields, real or nominal.  This has made it hard to predict USD exchange rates, generating uncertainty and a pervasive bearishness towards the USD that is hard to shake.  However, we may have got to a point where the USD has become so significantly stretched from yield spreads that it is resisting further depreciation.  Furthermore, US economic activity and inflation risks have accelerated compared to most other countries.</em></p>

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or long term yields, real or nominal.  This has made it hard to predict USD exchange rates, generating uncertainty and a pervasive bearishness towards the USD that is hard to shake.  However, we may have got to a point where the USD has become so significantly stretched from yield spreads that it is resisting further depreciation.  Furthermore, US economic activity and inflation risks have accelerated compared to most other countries.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<p>The ‘big’ risks for financial markets centre on US bonds, not equities. In other words, less on the price of <strong>risk assets</strong> and more on the valuation of underlying <strong>‘safe’ assets</strong>. We have warned over recent months that US safe assets – the US dollar and US Treasuries – have been trading 10-20% <strong>expensive</strong>. As they adjust lower, more traditional risk assets will similarly fall in price, much like previously occurred in 1987 and 1994. The question we have been posing is whether this would be an orderly…</p>

The ‘big’ risks for financial markets centre on US bonds, not equities. In other words, less on the price of risk assets and more on the valuation of underlying ‘safe’ assets. We have warned over recent months that US safe assets – the US dollar and US Treasuries – have been trading 10-20% expensive. As they adjust lower, more traditional risk assets will similarly fall in price, much like previously occurred in 1987 and 1994. The question we have been posing is whether this would be an orderly…

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Introduction</h2><p><em>One of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost certainly informed by his years as a corporate deal-maker, every gain made comes at someone else’s expense. Such thinking seems to be behind the administration’s recent greenlighting of tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports. The recently issued reports<sup>1</sup> by Commerce Secretary Ross cited “national security concerns” for supporting the imposition of tariffs.</em>…</p>

IntroductionOne of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost certainly informed by his years as a corporate deal-maker, every gain made comes at someone else’s expense. Such thinking seems to be behind the administration’s recent greenlighting of tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports. The recently issued reports1 by Commerce Secretary Ross cited “national security concerns” for supporting the imposition of tariffs.…

The Market Sentimentalist - Zero-Sum (Thoughts on G3 Currencies)

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Chart of the Day: What Trump Should Be Tweeting About!

Evidence is building by the day that the US's economy late-cycle boom is now reaching boiling point in a text-book case of overheating (see Chart...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Smouldering Intensity

Fed Chair Alan Greenspan was a famous data maven, reportedly regaling his FOMC colleagues with arcane data series such as forklift truck sales in...

Richard Iley

Time for the USD to Fight-Back

There is a significant degree of USD weakness that has been unrelated to the relative improvement in its yield advantage, whether that be short or...

Greg Gibbs

How China Sets World Interest Rates

The ‘big’ risks for financial markets centre on US bonds, not equities. In other words, less on the price of risk assets and more on the valuation...

Michael J. Howell

The Market Sentimentalist - Zero-Sum (Thoughts on G3 Currencies)

IntroductionOne of the numerous criticisms directed towards President Trump is that he tends to view everything as a zero-sum game. Almost...

Amareos

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