FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The FX market is likely to keep swinging from short-term cyclical strength in the USD to a desire to look over the cycle to building longer-term weakness in the USD.  For the most part, this year has been characterised by short-term cyclical factors boosting the USD.  But in the last two weeks, the market is again trying to see the US economy peaking and re-engaging in global assets.  However, there are a number of risks with this strategy.  The market may still be under-estimating the building inflation pressure in the USA and the peak in US rates.  Pockets of emerging markets remain vulnerable to higher US rates.  Italy remains a threat for the EUR.  The US is moving towards more tariffs against China.  We think it best to remain light on your feet.

The FX market is likely to keep swinging from short-term cyclical strength in the USD to a desire to look over the cycle to building longer-term weakness in the USD.  For the most part, this year has been characterised by short-term cyclical factors boosting the USD.  But in the last two weeks, the market is again trying to see the US economy peaking and re-engaging in global assets.  However, there are a number of risks with this strategy.  The market may still be under-estimating the building inflation pressure in the USA and the peak in US rates.  Pockets of emerging markets remain vulnerable to higher US rates.  Italy remains a threat for the EUR.  The US is moving towards more tariffs against China.  We think it best to remain light on your feet.

Short-Term USD Up-Cycle Clashes with Approaching Long-Term Down-Cycle

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>China’s PBoC injecting liquidity at a 14.3% annualised clip, or fastest since early-2016</li>
<li>Yet other major Central Banks, eg. Fed, BoJ, are tightening</li>
<li>Chinese Yuan may be vulnerable, but yield curve should steepen more</li>
</ul>


China’s PBoC injecting liquidity at a 14.3% annualised clip, or fastest since early-2016
Yet other major Central Banks, eg. Fed, BoJ, are tightening
Chinese Yuan may be vulnerable, but yield curve should steepen more


China All Alone! The PBoC Presses The Button

Political risk is driving down currencies in Turkey, Brazil, the UK and Australia. Politics is undermining Italian assets and poses a threat to the EUR.  However, US assets remain largely unmoved by the US political and legal troubles.  Trump has proven his ability to operate through chaos and combat controversy.  Even if Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in November and move to impeach Trump, it is very unlikely he will be removed from office, and he will probably only feel emboldened to carry on.  The USD has reasserted its strength but its yield advantage has slipped, and recent US economic reports have lost momentum.  US equities have proven relatively stable to date, but the risk remains that the US economy, assets and currency a pulled back to the pack.  A strong USD will eventually be self-defeating, tightening monetary conditions in the US and globally.

Political risk is driving down currencies in Turkey, Brazil, the UK and Australia. Politics is undermining Italian assets and poses a threat to the EUR.  However, US assets remain largely unmoved by the US political and legal troubles.  Trump has proven his ability to operate through chaos and combat controversy.  Even if Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in November and move to impeach Trump, it is very unlikely he will be removed from office, and he will probably only feel emboldened to carry on.  The USD has reasserted its strength but its yield advantage has slipped, and recent US economic reports have lost momentum.  US equities have proven relatively stable to date, but the risk remains that the US economy, assets and currency a pulled back to the pack.  A strong USD will eventually be self-defeating, tightening monetary conditions in the US and globally. 

Political analyst

Aaron Timms

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With 80 days to go until the midterm elections, the picture is looking good but not great for the Democrats. The focus of attention is squarely on the race for the House: all 435 seats are up for grabs, with the Democrats needing to gain an additional 23 from their present total to flip the House. (Only 33 Senate seats are up for election; since most of them are held by Democrats, the likelihood of the Republicans losing the upper house is remote.)
Several factors suggest the Democrats may not…

With 80 days to go until the midterm elections, the picture is looking good but not great for the Democrats. The focus of attention is squarely on the race for the House: all 435 seats are up for grabs, with the Democrats needing to gain an additional 23 from their present total to flip the House. (Only 33 Senate seats are up for election; since most of them are held by Democrats, the likelihood of the Republicans losing the upper house is remote.)
Several factors suggest the Democrats may not…

Don’t Hold Your Breath for a “Blue Wave” in the Midterms

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action.  This may be helping drive the USD higher in the recent upheaval led by Turkey. And it may be adding to the woes of other EM currencies with significant dollar-debt.  However, when you exchange TRL for USD, you are exchanging the currency of one country with a large twin deficit for another with an equally troubling demand for dollar debt. You are exchanging a populist political leader with a penchant for controlling the media and the central bank for another in an existential battle with the political and legal establishment, attacking the media, central bank and many foreign countries’ governments. The US economy is not an island immune from risks abroad, and it is not well prepared to deal with an economic slowdown or financial stress.  There is no fiscal room, and all eyes would turn to the Fed if, and when, stress abroad, some of it driven by US foreign policy, feeds back to the USA.

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Short-Term USD Up-Cycle Clashes with Approaching Long-Term Down-Cycle

The FX market is likely to keep swinging from short-term cyclical strength in the USD to a desire to look over the cycle to building longer-term...

Greg Gibbs

China All Alone! The PBoC Presses The Button

China’s PBoC injecting liquidity at a 14.3% annualised clip, or fastest since early-2016 Yet other major Central Banks, eg. Fed, BoJ, are...

Michael J. Howell

US Politics – More Drama than Risk

Political risk is driving down currencies in Turkey, Brazil, the UK and Australia. Politics is undermining Italian assets and poses a threat to the...

Greg Gibbs

Don’t Hold Your Breath for a “Blue Wave” in the Midterms

With 80 days to go until the midterm elections, the picture is looking good but not great for the Democrats. The focus of attention is squarely on...

Aaron Timms

TRL for USD; Exchanging One Twin Deficit and Populist Government for Another

Safe haven demand is strong for the USD with alternatives gold, JPY and bitcoin missing in action. This may be helping drive the USD higher in the...

Greg Gibbs

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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