Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Global and US Liquidity conditions very tight</li>
<li>Federal Reserve moving swiftly away from further tightening</li>
<li>US dollar looks vulnerable in 2019</li>
<li>Asian assets, commodity prices and gold could be major winners</li>
</ul>


Global and US Liquidity conditions very tight
Federal Reserve moving swiftly away from further tightening
US dollar looks vulnerable in 2019
Asian assets, commodity prices and gold could be major winners


Vicky Pollard at the Fed? Steve Bannon in Oxford? What Do They Tell Us About the Dollar in 2019?

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-united-states-2019-set-fair-but-then" target="_blank">The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then?</a> we wrote that we do not expect another Fed rate hike until June 2019, at the earliest with an even stronger probability that the next move from the Fed in this cycle will be a cut in 2020. We expect on trend growth in the US over the next 12 months as the free money spigot continues to shut marginally. Sentiment towards Asian markets - once it is realised that Asia’s economic performance and growth in real economic activity will again surpass advanced economies by a wide margin - will change for the better this year. It's about time.

In The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then? we wrote that we do not expect another Fed rate hike until June 2019, at the earliest with an even stronger probability that the next move from the Fed in this cycle will be a cut in 2020. We expect on trend growth in the US over the next 12 months as the free money spigot continues to shut marginally. Sentiment towards Asian markets - once it is realised that Asia’s economic performance and growth in real economic activity will again surpass advanced economies by a wide margin - will change for the better this year. It's about time. 

While Donald Trump amassed troops along the Mexican border in order to repel the migrant caravan from Honduras, it is really the caravan of policy problems lined up behind him that is more likely to disrupt his presidency. Fiscal promises relating to public-sector pensions, Medicaid and Medicare are set to grow exponentially over the coming years. And then there is the increase in nonfinancial corporate debt since 2010 which has been accumulated during a period of the most distorted capital-pricing in history. When the first wave of renewed economic problems hit all there will be to withstand them is, in the famous words of ex-Fed Chair Janet Yellen, “More of Plan A”. The next time around, and that time is coming soon, it is likely to prove to be a dud.

While Donald Trump amassed troops along the Mexican border in order to repel the migrant caravan from Honduras, it is really the caravan of policy problems lined up behind him that is more likely to disrupt his presidency. Fiscal promises relating to public-sector pensions, Medicaid and Medicare are set to grow exponentially over the coming years. And then there is the increase in nonfinancial corporate debt since 2010 which has been accumulated during a period of the most distorted capital-pricing in history. When the first wave of renewed economic problems hit all there will be to withstand them is, in the famous words of ex-Fed Chair Janet Yellen, “More of Plan A”. The next time around, and that time is coming soon, it is likely to prove to be a dud.

The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis</li>
<li> Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame</li>
<li> Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and negative ‘real’ term premia</li>
<li> In the US, the impact of reverse QE is equivalent to another ten rate hikes</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis
 Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame
 Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and negative ‘real’ term premia
 In the US, the impact of reverse QE is equivalent to another ten rate hikes


United States

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Vicky Pollard at the Fed? Steve Bannon in Oxford? What Do They Tell Us About the Dollar in 2019?

Global and US Liquidity conditions very tight Federal Reserve moving swiftly away from further tightening US dollar looks vulnerable in 2019 Asian...

Michael J. Howell

The Black Elephant Has Trumpeted

In The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then? we wrote that we do not expect another Fed rate hike until June 2019, at the earliest with an even...

Dr. Jim Walker

The United States: 2019 Set Fair but Then?

While Donald Trump amassed troops along the Mexican border in order to repel the migrant caravan from Honduras, it is really the caravan of policy...

Dr. Jim Walker

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead. Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors...

Greg Gibbs

The Collapse of World Central Bank Money

Global Liquidity falling at fastest rate since 2007/08 Crisis Over-zealous Central Banks are to blame Squeeze evidenced by flat yield curves and...

Michael J. Howell

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