Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.</li><li>For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.</li><li>Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.</li></ul>

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD has started off the new year in a new frame of mind, it would appear, although the rebound currently underway took hold in late December just ahead of the turn of the year.</li><li>Markets are still shrugging off the after affects of the holidays and reduced participation that can sometimes exaggerate moves but the window for a moderate (at least) relief rally in the USD may be opening.</li><li>Firstly, my longer-term perspectives on the USD remain negative.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD has started off the new year in a new frame of mind, it would appear, although the rebound currently underway took hold in late December just ahead of the turn of the year.Markets are still shrugging off the after affects of the holidays and reduced participation that can sometimes exaggerate moves but the window for a moderate (at least) relief rally in the USD may be opening.Firstly, my longer-term perspectives on the USD remain negative.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Relief Rally Opportunity for the USD

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.</li><li>Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.</li><li>The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. November 15th to December 15th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated between 1,084 and 1,095 in the initial period until November 27th, 2023.</li><li>After reaching 1,099 on November 28th, the exchange rate followed an immediate downtrend until the 11th of December (except for one session), although it remained higher than the levels seen at the beginning of November.</li><li>Conversely on December 12th, the pair recorded an ascent, finally settling at 1.0894.</li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. November 15th to December 15th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated between 1,084 and 1,095 in the initial period until November 27th, 2023.After reaching 1,099 on November 28th, the exchange rate followed an immediate downtrend until the 11th of December (except for one session), although it remained higher than the levels seen at the beginning of November.Conversely on December 12th, the pair recorded an ascent, finally settling at 1.0894.

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - December 15, 2023

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.

Untying The Gordian Knot

FX Snapshot - Relief Rally Opportunity for the USD

The USD has started off the new year in a new frame of mind, it would appear, although the rebound currently underway took hold in late December...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - Oversold USD Rebounds

The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.

Scotiabank

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD - December 15, 2023

During the period under consideration, i.e. November 15th to December 15th, 2023, the EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuated between 1,084 and 1,095 in...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)