Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Chengdu Sino Microelectronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 constituent changes for the STAR Chip Index at the December rebalance. There will also be a couple of capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.05% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1.6bn (US$225m). Passives need to trade between 0.6-1x ADV in the potential changes.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes over the last month but there has been a marked improvement in performance in the last week. Watch out for more.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 constituent changes for the STAR Chip Index at the December rebalance. There will also be a couple of capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.05% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 1.6bn (US$225m). Passives need to trade between 0.6-1x ADV in the potential changes.
The forecast adds have underperformed the forecast deletes over the last month but there has been a marked improvement in performance in the last week. Watch out for more.


STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Potential Changes in December; US$450m Round-Trip Trade

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Raspberry Pi is expected to raise about £157 million in this IPO. The conditional trading for this IPO is expected to be take place on 11 June.</li>
<li>We estimate Raspberry Pi to generate sales of US$342.1 million (up 28.7% YoY) and operating profit of US$48.5 million (up 29.3% YoY) in 2024.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Raspberry Pi is market cap of £772 million or £4 per share (43% higher than the high end of the initial IPO price range). </li>
</ul>


Raspberry Pi is expected to raise about £157 million in this IPO. The conditional trading for this IPO is expected to be take place on 11 June.
We estimate Raspberry Pi to generate sales of US$342.1 million (up 28.7% YoY) and operating profit of US$48.5 million (up 29.3% YoY) in 2024.
Our base case valuation of Raspberry Pi is market cap of £772 million or £4 per share (43% higher than the high end of the initial IPO price range). 


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In my last insight (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-star-50-jun-24-3-adds-dels-possible-but-should-be-monitored-closely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>), I discussed how the rankings had to be monitored closely before finalizing the index change expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Now that the reference period is complete, I have discussed my final expectations for the June 2024 review. The official index changes will be announced later this month.</li>
</ul>


STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In my last insight (link), I discussed how the rankings had to be monitored closely before finalizing the index change expectations for the June 2024 index rebal event.
Now that the reference period is complete, I have discussed my final expectations for the June 2024 review. The official index changes will be announced later this month.


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 12% Vs Peers in 1 Month; Final Ranks & New Trade

<ul>
<li>STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I currently expect three changes resulting in a one-way flow of around US$531mn but there is still room for the expectations to change.</li>
</ul>


STAR 50 Index is a tech-focused, blue-chip index in Mainland China which tracks the top 50 largest and most liquid names in the STAR market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at our expectations for potential ADDs and DELs for the STAR 50 index during the June 2024 index rebal event.
I currently expect three changes resulting in a one-way flow of around US$531mn but there is still room for the expectations to change.


Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 ADDs/DELs Possible but Should Be Monitored Closely

<ul>
<li>There are 5 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 10 December.</li>
<li>The index committee has 'forgotten' they need to reset the minimum listing history to 12 months when the number of stocks that are listed longer than 12 months exceeds 150.</li>
<li>There is more than 1 day of ADV to trade on all stocks and the inclusions could outperform the deletions over the next 10 trading days to implementation.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 changes to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 10 December.
The index committee has 'forgotten' they need to reset the minimum listing history to 12 months when the number of stocks that are listed longer than 12 months exceeds 150.
There is more than 1 day of ADV to trade on all stocks and the inclusions could outperform the deletions over the next 10 trading days to implementation.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Oops! They Did It Again...

China

Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. operates as a semiconductor devices manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells chips, semiconductor modules, development boards, and other related products. Espressif Systems (Shanghai) markets its products throughout China.

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Espressif Systems Shanghai (688018 CH)

STAR Chip Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Potential Changes in December; US$450m Round-Trip Trade

There could be 3 constituent changes in December. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.05% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY1.6bn. Passives need to...

Brian Freitas

Raspberry Pi IPO Valuation Analysis

Raspberry Pi is expected to raise about £157 million in this IPO. Our base case valuation of Raspberry Pi is market cap of £772 million or £4 per...

Douglas Kim

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: SHORTs Down 12% Vs Peers in 1 Month; Final Ranks & New Trade

I see 3 expected ADDs/DELs for the June 2024 review and I believe the expected ADDs will outperform the expected DELs over the next few weeks.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard STAR 50 Jun 24: 3 ADDs/DELs Possible but Should Be Monitored Closely

Hoymiles Power (688032 CH) is close to the border and can escape deletion if the stock outperforms the other names ranked close to it. This is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Oops! They Did It Again...

There are 5 changes at the Dec rebalance as the index committee have continued to use a 6 month minimum listing history even though the methodology...

Brian Freitas

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