Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> may continue.</li>
<li>Bullish stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-brands" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35289:1" rel="noopener">Metro Brands (METROBRA IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-wellness-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4353:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN)</a>, while the sentiment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-of-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7270:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN)</a> is Bearish.</li>
<li>Highlighted global stocks include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4022:1" rel="noopener">Ebix (EBIX US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smith-a-o-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18645:1" rel="noopener">Smith (A.O.) (AOS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> </li>
</ul>


Positive retail flows, HNI &amp; AIF inflows, along with global market trends, suggest that the uptrend for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) may continue.
Bullish stocks include Metro Brands (METROBRA IN) and Zydus Wellness (ZYWL IN), while the sentiment for Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) is Bearish.
Highlighted global stocks include Ebix (EBIX US) , Smith (A.O.) (AOS US) and Apple (AAPL US) 


[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-finance-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13579:1" rel="noopener">Power Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astral-poly-technik-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7890:1" rel="noopener">Astral</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cummins-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7365:1" rel="noopener">Cummins India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supreme-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11443:1" rel="noopener">Supreme Industries</a> have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.</li>
<li>The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.</li>
<li>We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.</li>
</ul>



Power Finance, Astral, IDFC First Bank, Cummins India, HDFC Asset Management, Ashok Leyland, Polycab India and Supreme Industries have all run up over the recent past and have investor attention.
The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.


India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.</li>
<li>Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.
Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Equity Capital Markets

Escorts Kubota Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> reported a 69 bps YoY gain in market share, but a -540 bps drop in EBITDA margins in spite of a 2% price hike.  </li>
<li>We believe the product and management issues highlighted earlier, are likely to ensure both margins and market share do not cross 10% for FY23.</li>
<li>As per the FY22 Annual Report, auditors have received whistle-blower complaints, but no details are disclosed. Credit-impaired trade receivables are also increasing. Stock is not cheap and hence the caution.  </li>
</ul>



Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) reported a 69 bps YoY gain in market share, but a -540 bps drop in EBITDA margins in spite of a 2% price hike.  
We believe the product and management issues highlighted earlier, are likely to ensure both margins and market share do not cross 10% for FY23.
As per the FY22 Annual Report, auditors have received whistle-blower complaints, but no details are disclosed. Credit-impaired trade receivables are also increasing. Stock is not cheap and hence the caution.  


Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Costly Market Share Gains & AR Concerns

Escorts Kubota Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on current consensus estimates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> is expected to deliver implied domestic volume growth of 6.5% for FY23 and 10% for FY24.</li>
<li>Our earlier checks have indicated a challenging environment for gaining market share or growing ahead of the Industry for ESCORTS. </li>
<li>Even if we assume market share gains and volume recovery leading to above industry growth, at CMP it is already priced in. </li>
</ul>


Based on current consensus estimates, Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) is expected to deliver implied domestic volume growth of 6.5% for FY23 and 10% for FY24.
Our earlier checks have indicated a challenging environment for gaining market share or growing ahead of the Industry for ESCORTS. 
Even if we assume market share gains and volume recovery leading to above industry growth, at CMP it is already priced in. 


Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) | Market Share Gains Priced In

India

Escorts Kubota Limited is among India's leading engineering conglomerates, operating in the high growth sectors of Agri Machinery, Material Handling, Construction Equipment and Railway Equipment. The Group has earned the trust of over 5 million customers by way of product and process innovations over seven decades.

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Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)

[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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[Week 1] Namaste India 🙏 | Whirlpool Stock Performance Is Good, Earnings Are Not

The NIFTY Index could continue its uptrend. Bullish names include Metro, and Zydus Wellness, Global names to watch are Ebix, Smith (A.O.), and Apple.

Pranav Bhavsar

India - Positioning on Some Interesting Names

Quite a few Indian stocks have jumped in price recently and the increased market cap will put them on active investors radars and could get the...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) | Costly Market Share Gains & AR Concerns

Escorts Kubota (ESCORTS IN) reported market share gains but at cost of a sharp drop in margins. Going forward, we expect the margins and market...

Pranav Bhavsar