Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Earlier today, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced that all the proposals of the latest market consultation would be implemented at the close of trading on 16 April to reduce constituent concentration, ease liquidity limitations, and improve index replication further than would have been achieved from the result of the prior market consultation.We expect there will be 37 additions to the index taking the number of index constituents up to 67. This number will increase over the next few rebalances as the target is to get up to at least 100 constituent stocks.With index weight dependent on free float market cap and turnover, plus capping of index weight dependent on exposure scores, this is going to be a large rebalance. We expect a one-way turnover of 48.1% with our expected changes.Stocks that could see passive buying (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/drax-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21911:1" rel="noopener">Drax Group PLC (DRX LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enel-americas-sa-c3a67f8a-ad13-45ff-a676-cbc513b8c458" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25965:1" rel="noopener">Enel Americas Sa (ENIA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortum-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21762:1" rel="noopener">Fortum OYJ (FUM1V FH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erg-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21186:1" rel="noopener">ERG SpA (ERG IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terna-rete-elettrica-nazionale" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21232:1" rel="noopener">Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acciona-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21248:1" rel="noopener">Acciona SA (ANA SM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avista-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17178:1" rel="noopener">Avista Corp (AVA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idacorp-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15190:1" rel="noopener">Idacorp Inc (IDA US)</a>.Stocks that could see passive selling (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verbund-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22563:1" rel="noopener">Verbund AG (VER AV)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/edp-renovaveis-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21363:1" rel="noopener">EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR PL)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scatec-solar-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25120:1" rel="noopener">Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innergex-renewable-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25479:1" rel="noopener">Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boralex-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25478:1" rel="noopener">Boralex Inc (BLX CN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-gamesa-renewable-energy-s-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21270:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. (SGRE SM)</a>.Among existing constituents, there will be passive inflows on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orsted-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24765:1" rel="noopener">Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vestas-wind-systems-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22524:1" rel="noopener">Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/solaredge-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27981:1" rel="noopener">SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrun-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19726:1" rel="noopener">Sunrun Inc (RUN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enphase-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8872:1" rel="noopener">Enphase Energy (ENPH US)</a>.

Earlier today, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced that all the proposals of the latest market consultation would be implemented at the close of trading on 16 April to reduce constituent concentration, ease liquidity limitations, and improve index replication further than would have been achieved from the result of the prior market consultation.We expect there will be 37 additions to the index taking the number of index constituents up to 67. This number will increase over the next few rebalances as the target is to get up to at least 100 constituent stocks.With index weight dependent on free float market cap and turnover, plus capping of index weight dependent on exposure scores, this is going to be a large rebalance. We expect a one-way turnover of 48.1% with our expected changes.Stocks that could see passive buying (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are Drax Group PLC (DRX LN), Enel Americas Sa (ENIA US), Fortum OYJ (FUM1V FH), ERG SpA (ERG IM), Terna Rete Elettrica Nazionale (TRN IM), China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK), Nordex SE (NDX1 GR), Acciona SA (ANA SM), Avista Corp (AVA US) and Idacorp Inc (IDA US).Stocks that could see passive selling (sorted in terms of days of ADV) are Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ), Verbund AG (VER AV), EDP Renovaveis SA (EDPR PL), Scatec Solar ASA (SSO NO), Innergex Renewable Energy (INE CN), Boralex Inc (BLX CN) and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, S.A. (SGRE SM).Among existing constituents, there will be passive inflows on Orsted A/S (ORSTED DC), Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS DC), SolarEdge Technologies Inc (SEDG US), Sunrun Inc (RUN US) and Enphase Energy (ENPH US). 

Global Clean Energy Index: All Proposals to Be Implemented; 48% One-Way Turnover

The S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index is designed to measure the performance of 30 companies from around the world that are involved in clean energy-related businesses, comprising a diversified mix of clean energy production and clean energy equipment and technology companies.There are two ETFs that are benchmarked to the index and these ETFs have seen massive inflows over the last year. This has caused liquidity issues in the underlying stocks and has led to S&amp;P having multiple market consultations to reduce constituent concentration, easy liquidity limitations and improve index replication.The changes due to these market consultations will cause large passive flows on the stocks. A few stocks have moved substantially over the last couple of months but there could be more in store for a few of them.Depending on the which proposals are implemented, one-way turnover for the review could be in the range of 30-50% and there are a lot of stocks that will have more than 10 days of ADV to trade.In this Insight we look at the index, the inflows on the ETFs, the various market consultations and the impact on the stocks that constitute the index and those that could be added to the index in the April rebalance.

The S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index is designed to measure the performance of 30 companies from around the world that are involved in clean energy-related businesses, comprising a diversified mix of clean energy production and clean energy equipment and technology companies.There are two ETFs that are benchmarked to the index and these ETFs have seen massive inflows over the last year. This has caused liquidity issues in the underlying stocks and has led to S&amp;P having multiple market consultations to reduce constituent concentration, easy liquidity limitations and improve index replication.The changes due to these market consultations will cause large passive flows on the stocks. A few stocks have moved substantially over the last couple of months but there could be more in store for a few of them.Depending on the which proposals are implemented, one-way turnover for the review could be in the range of 30-50% and there are a lot of stocks that will have more than 10 days of ADV to trade.In this Insight we look at the index, the inflows on the ETFs, the various market consultations and the impact on the stocks that constitute the index and those that could be added to the index in the April rebalance.

Global Clean Energy Index: MASSIVE Changes Coming Up; 30-50% One-Way Turnover

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Global markets are holding at support levels and we reiterate, our neutral but constructive outlook . In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks within countries that are displaying bullish price and relative strength trends, including Japan, Hong Kong, Italy and Norway.

Global markets are holding at support levels and we reiterate, our neutral but constructive outlook . In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks within countries that are displaying bullish price and relative strength trends, including Japan, Hong Kong, Italy and Norway.

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight TOPIX, Hang Seng

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving averages. Japan, too, exhibits a pullback opportunity, though much shallower in depth (a sign of strength).Now pan to emerging markets and you’ll find where leadership is concentrated, where the MSCI EM Index is breaking out to all-time highs, and where its relative strength trend is bottoming versus the U.S. and international markets.In short, the technical environment remains bullish, and so does our outlook.

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

Italy

ERG S.p.A. generates renewable energy. The Company operates wind power plants in Italy, Germany, France and Eastern Europe, and thermal generation power plants in Italy. ERG markets petroleum products in Italy at service stations and to industrial, agricultural, and heating companies.

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ERG SpA (ERG IM)

Global Clean Energy Index: All Proposals to Be Implemented; 48% One-Way Turnover

S&P will implement all proposals of the market consultation at the close on 16 April. This will create trading opportunities. One-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

Global Clean Energy Index: MASSIVE Changes Coming Up; 30-50% One-Way Turnover

The huge inflows into ETFs tracking the S&P Global Clean Energy Index have led to many market consultations and there will be massive flows in/out...

Brian Freitas

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight TOPIX, Hang Seng

Global markets are holding at support levels and we reiterate, our neutral but constructive outlook . In today’s report we highlight actionable...

Vermilion Research

EM Continues to Escort Int'l Markets Higher

In developed markets, Europe offers textbook pullback opportunities, with indices like the STOXX 600 and DAX (below) testing 200-day moving...

Vermilion Research

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