CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: 10 stocks remain, four new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 115% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 31%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: 10 stocks remain, four new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 115% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 31%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 41

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 96% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 29%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate in 2023E to the terminal rate of 2.0%, which is where the real rate will turn positive at +0.1%, based on a CPI of 1.9% as of the end of 4Q23E (Bloomberg consensus).</li><li>The 2023E Thai economy is projected to grow at its full potential at 4.5% YoY (vs. the current projection of 3.7% YoY) on the back of the expected recovery of tourism thanks to China’s sooner-than-anticipated reopening.</li><li>Meanwhile, inflation has continued to slow down. We continue to recommend reopening plays whose earnings are likely to recover in line with the Thai economic outlook. </li></ul>

We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate in 2023E to the terminal rate of 2.0%, which is where the real rate will turn positive at +0.1%, based on a CPI of 1.9% as of the end of 4Q23E (Bloomberg consensus).The 2023E Thai economy is projected to grow at its full potential at 4.5% YoY (vs. the current projection of 3.7% YoY) on the back of the expected recovery of tourism thanks to China’s sooner-than-anticipated reopening.Meanwhile, inflation has continued to slow down. We continue to recommend reopening plays whose earnings are likely to recover in line with the Thai economic outlook. 

MPC - MPC Raised the Policy Interest Rate by 0.25% to 1.50%

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>ERW reported 3Q22 net loss at Bt12m, the lowest loss in the past 11 quarter.The result came out above our and market estimates while lower-than-expected operating cost from hotel business </li>
<li>Net loss in 3Q22 improved significantly Loss from core operation reduced to Bt12m (vs. Bt623m loss in 3Q21 and Bt139m loss in 2Q22)on the back of revenue that hit 11-quarter</li>
<li>Effective control for cost from operations and benefit from high operating leverage play a vital role as gross profit margin expanded to 11-quarter high at35.5%while SG&amp;At sales decreased to 11-quarter </li>
</ul>


ERW reported 3Q22 net loss at Bt12m, the lowest loss in the past 11 quarter.The result came out above our and market estimates while lower-than-expected operating cost from hotel business 
Net loss in 3Q22 improved significantly Loss from core operation reduced to Bt12m (vs. Bt623m loss in 3Q21 and Bt139m loss in 2Q22)on the back of revenue that hit 11-quarter
Effective control for cost from operations and benefit from high operating leverage play a vital role as gross profit margin expanded to 11-quarter high at35.5%while SG&amp;At sales decreased to 11-quarter 


ERW : Much Quicker Recovery Relative to Peers but Mostly Priced In

<ul><li>Global fund managers still suggest increasing holdings of safe-haven assets, such as cash, or investing in sectors with recurring income, notably utilities and health care stocks, while they are bearish on risk assets and global growth in the next 12 months.</li><li>Investors also repriced their expectations regarding the terminal fed funds rate in 1Q23 by 50 bps higher.</li><li>However, we expect the Thai market to see a limited impact from the bearishness thanks to the good earnings recovery momentum, in contrast to global economies, as well as the boost from the huge growth in the number of tourist arrivals from 400k in 2021 to an expected 21mn in 2023E.</li></ul>

Global fund managers still suggest increasing holdings of safe-haven assets, such as cash, or investing in sectors with recurring income, notably utilities and health care stocks, while they are bearish on risk assets and global growth in the next 12 months.Investors also repriced their expectations regarding the terminal fed funds rate in 1Q23 by 50 bps higher.However, we expect the Thai market to see a limited impact from the bearishness thanks to the good earnings recovery momentum, in contrast to global economies, as well as the boost from the huge growth in the number of tourist arrivals from 400k in 2021 to an expected 21mn in 2023E.

Thailand

The Erawan Group Public Company Limited develops and operates luxurious hotels, office buildings and shopping centers in the heart of Bangkok.

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Erawan Group (ERW TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 41

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Since inception, it has gained 115% versus the SET...

A. Stotz Investment Research

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 40

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

MPC - MPC Raised the Policy Interest Rate by 0.25% to 1.50%

We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate in 2023E to the terminal rate of 2.0%, which is where the real rate will turn...

Krungthai XSpring

ERW : Much Quicker Recovery Relative to Peers but Mostly Priced In

ERW reported 3Q22 net loss at Bt12m, the lowest loss in the past 11 quarter. The result came out above our and market estimates while lower-than...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Fund Manager Survey - No Cuts, No Glory

Global fund managers still suggest increasing holdings of safe-haven assets, such as cash, or investing in sectors with recurring income, notably...

Krungthai XSpring

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