Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Foreign exchange gains/losses are major swing factors in FY22 results of many companies and we think investors may have overlooked their importance in driving FY23 earnings. </li>
<li>With Rmb/USD exchange rate appreciated YTD, reversing the 8.5% depreciation in last year, the demons of many companies in last year will become positive earnings contributor. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2875:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> are key beneficiaries, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-enric-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:47:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Enric (3899 HK)</a> may turned into exchange losses.</li>
</ul>


Foreign exchange gains/losses are major swing factors in FY22 results of many companies and we think investors may have overlooked their importance in driving FY23 earnings. 
With Rmb/USD exchange rate appreciated YTD, reversing the 8.5% depreciation in last year, the demons of many companies in last year will become positive earnings contributor. 

Shenzhen International (152 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK) are key beneficiaries, while CIMC Enric (3899 HK) may turned into exchange losses.


China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!

<ul>
<li>The launch of Hang Seng Stock Connect Hydrogen Energy Index highlights the growing importance of hydrogen energy use and will stimulate more interest in this emerging sector. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weichai-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12508:1" rel="noopener">Weichai Power (2338 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets (6 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-lead-intelligent-equi-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27971:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equi-A (300450 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningxia-baofeng-energy-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29945:1" rel="noopener">Ningxia Baofeng Energy-A (600989 CH)</a> are the five largest constituents. </li>
<li>We believe many of these companies are just generating a tiny portion of revenue and profit from the hydrogen initiatives, but the long-term prospects are positive. </li>
</ul>


The launch of Hang Seng Stock Connect Hydrogen Energy Index highlights the growing importance of hydrogen energy use and will stimulate more interest in this emerging sector. 

Weichai Power (2338 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Power Assets (6 HK), Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equi-A (300450 CH) and Ningxia Baofeng Energy-A (600989 CH) are the five largest constituents. 
We believe many of these companies are just generating a tiny portion of revenue and profit from the hydrogen initiatives, but the long-term prospects are positive. 


China's Hydrogen Economy: Newly Launched Hang Seng Stock Connect Hydrogen Energy Index

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> expects better gas dollar margin HoH, there are still high profit uncertainties and its full-year operational guidance does not look exciting.</li>
<li>The expectation of flat to 10% YoY decline in new residential household connections is not encouraging. With 1H FY23 profit only amounted to 42% of consensus, we see downgrade risks.</li>
<li>Despite achieving positive free cash flow, its high gearing of 69.9% (+4pp HoH) is still very stretched relative to peers. We prefer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


While China Gas Holdings (384 HK) expects better gas dollar margin HoH, there are still high profit uncertainties and its full-year operational guidance does not look exciting.
The expectation of flat to 10% YoY decline in new residential household connections is not encouraging. With 1H FY23 profit only amounted to 42% of consensus, we see downgrade risks.
Despite achieving positive free cash flow, its high gearing of 69.9% (+4pp HoH) is still very stretched relative to peers. We prefer Kunlun Energy (135 HK).


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Not Meeting Expectations

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 19th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 19th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy.


HK Short Interest: China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely

China

Enn Natural Gas Co.,Ltd. offers natural gas engineering services. The Company provides natural gas engineering investment, gas station construction, and energy equipment distribution services. Enn Natural Gas also operates coal materials, chemicals,  and biopharmaceutical products trading businesses.

Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd., supplies gas in Shenzhen. The Company business includes wholesale of gas, pipeline and the supply of bottled gas, investment and construction in the distribution network of gas transmission.

Foran Energy Group Co.,Ltd. operates as a natural gas production company. The Company mainly offers liquefied and compressed natural gas transmission and distribution services. Foran Energy Group also provides natural gas high pressure pipe network construction services.

Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. distributes and sells natural, liquefied petroleum, and manufactured gases throughout China.

Shaan Xi Provincial Natural Gas Company Ltd. transports natural gas through pipelines.

Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co, Ltd. (002267 CH)

Chongqing Gas Group Corporation Limited supplies gas, installs gas facilities and equipment in Chongqing.

Xinjiang Haoyuan Gas Company Limited processes, sells, services and delivers natural gas. The Company's main products include delivery and sale of natural gas, and home residents pipeline installation services.

China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd. processes and distributes natural gas through urban pipelines.  The Company operates in Henan Province, China.  China Tian Lun Gas also operates a compressed natural gas filling station.

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

TOKYO GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies liquefied natural gas to Tokyo and the surrounding areas.  The Company maintains and manages gas supply equipment and sells air conditioning appliances.  Tokyo Gas operates power generation business as well.

Petronas Gas Berhad processes and separates natural gas into its components from the gas field offshore Terengganu. The Company stores, transports, and distributes these components as well as trades utilities to petrochemical plants.

OSAKA GAS CO., LTD. produces and supplies natural gas primarily in Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo areas.  The Company provides gases and energy products for residential, commercial, and industrial customers.  Osaka Gas also constructs and maintains gas supply lines.  In addition, the Company sells gas appliances.

China Resources Gas Group Ltd distributes natural gas and petroleum gas in the cities of Chengdu, Fuyang, Huaibei, Linhai, Suzhou and Wuxi in the PRC. The Company also operates compressed natural gas filling stations in Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuxi. The group also is involved in bottled liquefied petroleum gas distribution in cities of Fuyang, Suzhou and Wuxi.

PetroVietnam Gas JSC transports, stores, and markets petroleum gas.  The Companies products include liquefied petroleum gas, dry gas, compressed natural gas, and liquefied natural gas.  PetroVietnam's services include gas gathering, gas importation, gas transportation and distribution, gas engine development and gas operation and maintenance.

APA Group is a natural gas infrastructure company. The Company owns and or operates gas transmission and distribution assets whose pipelines span every state and territory in mainland Australia. APA Group also holds minority interests in energy infrastructure enterprises.

Southwest Gas Corporation purchases, transports, and distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in portions of Arizona, Nevada, and California.  The Company also provides construction services to utility companies, including trenching and installation, replacement, and maintenance services for energy distribution systems.

National Fuel Gas Company is an integrated natural gas company with operations in all segments of the natural gas industry, including utility, pipeline and storage, exploration and production, and marketing operations.  The Company operates across the United States.

China Gas Holdings Ltd. invests in, operates and manages natural gas distribution pipelines.  The Company distributes and sells natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial users, and bottles and sells compressed natural gas.  China Gas also constructs and operates gas stations.

UGI Corporation distributes and markets energy products and services.  The Company is a domestic and international distributor of propane.  UGI also distributes and markets natural gas and electricity, and sells related products and services in the Middle Atlantic region of the United States.

ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. distributes natural gas in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in, operates, and manages gas pipelines, and sells and distributes piped and bottled gas in China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ENN Energy (2688 HK)

Screening for GEMs: June 2023

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

China Strategy: It Is the Foreign Exchange Impact, Stupid!

Shenzhen Intl, ENN Energy, Shenzhen Expressway and Kunlun Energy are the key beneficiaries of the reverse in Rmb/USD depreciation trend in FY23,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Hydrogen Economy: Newly Launched Hang Seng Stock Connect Hydrogen Energy Index

The launch of Hydrogen Energy Index highlights growing importance of hydrogen energy use and will stimulate more interest in this emerging sector....

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Not Meeting Expectations

1H FY23 result is disappointing and we see downside risks for consensus forecasts. We think 2H earnings will be at best flattish and its high...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest: China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely

We highlight short interest changes in China Power Intl, HKEx, CLP, Geely, JD.com, ENN Energy based on latest Hong Kong SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)