Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.</li>
<li>There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.
There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> posted weak 1H FY22 result with a 18.6% contraction in core profit, driven primarily by lower new connections and weaker dollar margin for gas sales. </li>
<li>Full-Year guidance on new connections has revised to 3m (vs. 5m) and dollar margin will further contract by HK$0.04-0.06/cu.m. in 2H FY22. Progress on LPG Smart MicroGrid has slowed. </li>
<li>The Shiyan gas explosion looks to have a more long-lasting effect than expected. Also, the need to divert management attention to safety enforcement also weighed on China Gas.</li>
</ul>



China Gas Holdings (384 HK) posted weak 1H FY22 result with a 18.6% contraction in core profit, driven primarily by lower new connections and weaker dollar margin for gas sales. 
Full-Year guidance on new connections has revised to 3m (vs. 5m) and dollar margin will further contract by HK$0.04-0.06/cu.m. in 2H FY22. Progress on LPG Smart MicroGrid has slowed. 
The Shiyan gas explosion looks to have a more long-lasting effect than expected. Also, the need to divert management attention to safety enforcement also weighed on China Gas.


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Post-Result Call Takeaways, Looks like Not yet Reached the Bottom

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Shortly after <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a></strong> revised their Offer to ~S$2.35 and FINAL, Cuscaden has come over the top. This complicates things because of the <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press (SPH SP)</a></strong>/Keppel Agreement timing.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Swire Pacific (19 HK)</strong></a>'s discount to NAV of ~50% is bang in line with its 12-month average, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> is close to operating cash breakeven.</li>
<li>Blackstone and affiliates are offering shareholders of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a></strong> A$12.50/share in cash, a 26.2% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>


Shortly after Keppel (KEP SP) revised their Offer to ~S$2.35 and FINAL, Cuscaden has come over the top. This complicates things because of the Singapore Press (SPH SP)/Keppel Agreement timing.

Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s discount to NAV of ~50% is bang in line with its 12-month average, as Cathay Pacific (293 HK) is close to operating cash breakeven.
Blackstone and affiliates are offering shareholders of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) A$12.50/share in cash, a 26.2% premium to last close.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Swire, Crown Resorts, Royal Dutch, Toshiba, Hollysys

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> will be added to the HSI at the close on 3 December.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$10.1bn due to the inclusions, float changes and capping changes.</li>
<li>Currently at 64 members, Hang Seng Indexes is unlikely to reach its 80 index constituent target for the HSI by mid 2022 and the timeline is likely to be extended.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK) will be added to the HSI at the close on 3 December.
One-Way turnover is estimated at 5.05% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$10.1bn due to the inclusions, float changes and capping changes.
Currently at 64 members, Hang Seng Indexes is unlikely to reach its 80 index constituent target for the HSI by mid 2022 and the timeline is likely to be extended.


HSI Index Rebalance: Tiptoeing to the 80 Index Member Target

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<p>For our next Webinar, we're excited to welcome back Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a>, who will cover the upcoming rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as it pushes towards its target of 80 index members by mid-2022.</p>
<h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 17 November 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.</h3>
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<h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=85212464246" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2>
</div>
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<div>
<p>Brian Freitas is a highly experienced ex-delta one trader with over 17 years of experience. He was previously with Barclays, Macquarie, Credit Suisse, and BNP Paribas.</p>
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For our next Webinar, we're excited to welcome back Insight Provider Brian Freitas, who will cover the upcoming rebalance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as it pushes towards its target of 80 index members by mid-2022.
The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 17 November 2021, 17:00 SGT/HKT.



Register for the Webinar here




Brian Freitas is a highly experienced ex-delta one trader with over 17 years of experience. He was previously with Barclays, Macquarie, Credit Suisse, and BNP Paribas.


Smartkarma Webinar | Potential Inclusions to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

China

ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. distributes natural gas in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in, operates, and manages gas pipelines, and sells and distributes piped and bottled gas in China.

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ENN Energy (2688 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The Dec rebalance of the HK indices will use today's closing prices to cap the stocks at 8%. Meituan and Tencent will see large outflows due to...

Brian Freitas

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Post-Result Call Takeaways, Looks like Not yet Reached the Bottom

Weaker-than-expected result for 1H FY22 is negative and management turned more cautious on outlook for 2H FY22, pointing to lower new connections...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Swire, Crown Resorts, Royal Dutch, Toshiba, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

HSI Index Rebalance: Tiptoeing to the 80 Index Member Target

CR Beer, ENN Energy, JD.com & Netease will join the HSI after the close on 3 Dec. Some were expected, some are surprises. Turnover is 5%+ & the...

Brian Freitas

Smartkarma Webinar | Potential Inclusions to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

On Wednesday, 17 November, 5pm SGT, join our webinar with Brian Freitas, who will cover the upcoming rebalance of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index.

Smartkarma Research

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