External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Topline Fertilizer universe earnings to increase by 2.7x YoY to Rs21bn in 3Q2023, due to significant jump in retention prices and volumetric sales.</li><li>On a QoQ basis, earnings are expected to increase by 3.1x, primarily driven by a lower tax expense. To recall, earnings in 2Q2023 were primarily impacted by the imposition of a 10% super tax. Pre-tax earnings are up 72% QoQ due to the reasons mentioned above.</li><li>This takes 9M2023 after tax earnings to Rs34.7bn up 33% YoY and pre-tax earnings to Rs72.9bn in up 35% YoY for the sector.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Topline Fertilizer universe earnings to increase by 2.7x YoY to Rs21bn in 3Q2023, due to significant jump in retention prices and volumetric sales.On a QoQ basis, earnings are expected to increase by 3.1x, primarily driven by a lower tax expense. To recall, earnings in 2Q2023 were primarily impacted by the imposition of a 10% super tax. Pre-tax earnings are up 72% QoQ due to the reasons mentioned above.This takes 9M2023 after tax earnings to Rs34.7bn up 33% YoY and pre-tax earnings to Rs72.9bn in up 35% YoY for the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Fertilizer: Profits Likely to Jump 2.7x YoY in 3Q2023

<ul><li>Pakistan’s Urea sales in Sep-2023 are expected to clock in at 530k tons, up 4% YoY compared to 508k tons in Sep-2022. The same is expected to be down 18% MoM due to seasonal factors.</li><li>Urea sales in 9M2023 are expected to clock in at 4,911K tons compared to 4,770k tons in 9M2022, up 3% YoY.</li><li>This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to around 80k tons in Sep-2023 vs. 87k tons in Aug-2023.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan’s Urea sales in Sep-2023 are expected to clock in at 530k tons, up 4% YoY compared to 508k tons in Sep-2022. The same is expected to be down 18% MoM due to seasonal factors.Urea sales in 9M2023 are expected to clock in at 4,911K tons compared to 4,770k tons in 9M2022, up 3% YoY.This is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to around 80k tons in Sep-2023 vs. 87k tons in Aug-2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea sales for Sep-2023 up 4% YoY; 9M2023 up 3% YoY

<ul><li>Pakistan’s Urea sales in Aug-2023 are expected to clock in at 650k tons, up 18% YoY compared to 552k tons in Aug-2022. This significant YoY growth in Urea sales is due to low sales figures of the previous year, which were impacted by heavy rainfall across the country.</li><li>On MoM basis, Urea sales are expected to be up by 3%, compared to 629k tons of Jul-2023 due to seasonal factors.</li><li>Urea sales in 8M2023 are expected to clock in at 4,380K tons compared to 4,262k tons in 8M2022, up 3% YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan’s Urea sales in Aug-2023 are expected to clock in at 650k tons, up 18% YoY compared to 552k tons in Aug-2022. This significant YoY growth in Urea sales is due to low sales figures of the previous year, which were impacted by heavy rainfall across the country.On MoM basis, Urea sales are expected to be up by 3%, compared to 629k tons of Jul-2023 due to seasonal factors.Urea sales in 8M2023 are expected to clock in at 4,380K tons compared to 4,262k tons in 8M2022, up 3% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea sales for Aug-2023 up 18% YoY; 8M2023 up 3% YoY

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector. We recommend adding exposure, and provide charts on numerous actionable stocks across global markets. We also highlight actionable stocks within Materials, beyond metals &amp; mining stocks, that are outperforming.

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector. We recommend adding exposure, and provide charts on numerous actionable stocks across global markets. We also highlight actionable stocks within Materials, beyond metals &amp; mining stocks, that are outperforming. 

Global Strategy: Opportunities in Health Care & Materials Stocks

Pakistan

Engro Fertilizers Limited is a fertilizer manufacturing and marketing company with products that focus on balanced crop nutrition and increased yield.

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Engro Fertilizer (EFERT PA)

Pakistan Fertilizer: Profits Likely to Jump 2.7x YoY in 3Q2023

We expect Topline Fertilizer universe earnings to increase by 2.7x YoY to Rs21bn in 3Q2023, due to significant jump in retention prices and...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea sales for Sep-2023 up 4% YoY; 9M2023 up 3% YoY

Pakistan’s Urea sales in Sep-2023 are expected to clock in at 530k tons, up 4% YoY compared to 508k tons in Sep-2022. The same is expected to be...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea sales for Aug-2023 up 18% YoY; 8M2023 up 3% YoY

Pakistan’s Urea sales in Aug-2023 are expected to clock in at 650k tons, up 18% YoY compared to 552k tons in Aug-2022. This significant YoY growth...

Topline Securities

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

Global Strategy: Opportunities in Health Care & Materials Stocks

Price and relative strength trends continue to improve for our international equal-weight Health Care Sector.We recommend adding exposure, and...

Vermilion Research

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