Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand side in the energy space looks just as fragile as the supply side.</li><li>Sure, China might be taking advantage of the Russian discount, but the Ruble is down some 30% against the CNY year-to-date so it is not catching a bid that one would otherwise expect.</li><li>With Country Garden (potentially) defaulting on fixed-income payments expect more weakness to show up in CNY pairs, which in turn adds even weaker commodity demand from China.</li></ul>

Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand side in the energy space looks just as fragile as the supply side.Sure, China might be taking advantage of the Russian discount, but the Ruble is down some 30% against the CNY year-to-date so it is not catching a bid that one would otherwise expect.With Country Garden (potentially) defaulting on fixed-income payments expect more weakness to show up in CNY pairs, which in turn adds even weaker commodity demand from China.

The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch.</li><li>Here, we delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.</li><li>Our decision to pivot towards energy and other traditional sectors seems to have been well-timed.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch.Here, we delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.Our decision to pivot towards energy and other traditional sectors seems to have been well-timed.

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.</li>
<li>Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.</li>
</ul>


“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.
The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.
Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.


Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

<ul>
<li>In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.</li>
<li>This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now</li>
<li>The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration</li>
</ul>


In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action before anyone else has given it any noteworthy attention.
This week we look at four reasons why the curve steepener is now the trend to watch! There are four reasons for the USD curve steepening now
The issuance profile will move towards longer durations, the BoJ decision has decreased Japanese incentives to buy USTs, the Manufacturing rebound will add to steepening pressures, positioning is already loaded with duration


Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals

Steno Research: Stubbornness despite Chinese demand woes As China’s economic woes deepen with the housing market slumps, we note that the demand...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Navigating Crossroads

We delve into the performance of our portfolio and take a close look at the ever-changing landscape of financial markets.

Steno Research

Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #14: 4 Reasons Why Curve Steepening Is Now on the Cards

In our “out of the box” series, we aim at being ahead of the current consensus narrative and think of the next theme that could drive price action...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)