Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be <strong>tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.</strong></p><p>We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.</p>

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

<p><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a></p><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Thailand

Prima Marine Public Company Limited operates as a marine vessel management firm. The Company offers oil-tanker, crude oil, liquefied petrochemicals, and petroleum products transportation services. Prima Marine also provides shipbuilding, shipping, and storage services. Prima Marine serves customers in the Asia Pacific region.

Siamgas & Petrochemicals PCL distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The Company provides LPG, ammonia and other related petrochemical products such as propane, butane and propellant. Siamgas is also involved in the logistics services for LPG and petrochemical products.

The Lanna Resources Public Company Limited mines and distributes lignite and granite products in Thailand.  The Company produces two types of granite products, polished granite slab and granite block.  Its lignite is supplied to power generation, cement, paper, and food industries.  Additionally, Lanna imports coal for domestic distribution.

Esso Thailand PCL is a fully integrated oil business, including oil refinery and production. The Company provides liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, aviation fuel, diesel, marine fuel, lubricants, aromatic products and other related products such as purified terephthalic acid (PTA), solvents, plasticizers, and benzene concentrate stream.

SUSCO Pcl distributes petroleum products including unleaded and regular gasoline and diesel oil through its gasoline filling stations and directly to large end-users.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as an oil agent and offers marine freight transportation services.

IRPC PCL produces a variety of petrochemical products including polypropylene, high density polyethylene and expandable polystyrene primarily used in packaging materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company produces and distributes gasoline, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), asphalt, as well as electricity and construction materials.

Asian Insulators Public Company Limited manufactures electrical porcelain insulators for use in low, medium and high voltage applications such as underground power lines, overhead power lines, and power distribution systems and sub-stations.

Sea Oil PCL supplies marine bunker fuels and lubricant products and food services to all kinds of ships at all major ports in Thailand and in the SouthEast Asian region.

Power Solution Technologies PCL manages and designs electrical systems. The Company provides solutions in telecom power, power supplies, batteries, renewable energy, environment monitoring/control and biomass.

RPCG Public Company Limited distillates condensate residue (CR) into petroleum and petrochemical products such as low sulfur high-speed diesel, fuel oil and intermediate chemical products.  The Company distributes its products to wholesalers as well as to retail service stations owned by its subsidiary.

PT Indika Energy Tbk is an energy company. The Company provides energy services, energy resources and infrastructure, primarily in the areas of coal production, engineering, procurement and construction services and power generation services.

Erin Energy Corporation operates as an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company offers crude oil, natural gas, and other oil products. Erin Energy owns a portfolio of onshore and offshore assets in the United States, Nigeria, Kenya, Gambia, South Africa, and Ghana.

Petron Corporation refines crude oil and sells a full range of petroleum products. The Company transports its products by sea, using tankers and barges. Petron also retails gasoline, diesel, and kerosene to motorists, public transportation operators and households through its service stations. Petro also provides insurance & reinsurance service and leases property.

Pakistan Oil Fields Limited specializes in the exploration, drilling, production and transmission of petroleum.  The Company also markets Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG).

SandRidge Energy, Inc. explores and produces natural gas and crude oil. The Company owns and operates gas gathering, processing facilities, carbon dioxide treating, and transportation facilities. SandRidge Energy serves customers in the United States.

Clean Energy Fuels Corporation designs, builds, finances and operates natural gas filling stations for vehicle fleets.  The Company also helps its customers acquire and finance natural gas vehicles and obtain local, state, and federal clean air rebates and incentives.

Excelerate Energy, Inc. operates as an oil and natural gas company. The Company offers flexible liquefied natural gas sales and distribution solutions, as well as provides LNG terminal services. Excelerate Energy serves customers worldwide.

China Aviation Oil Singapore Corporation Limited supplies jet fuel to foreign and domestic airlines flying through China's airports.  The Company also trades in other oil products such as fuel oil, gas oil, crude oil, petrochemical products, including physical and paper swaps, and futures trading.

China Aviation Oil Singapore Corp (CAO SP)

Energy Resources of Australia Limited is a uranium company which mines, processes and sells uranium oxide from the Ranger mine in the Northern Territory and uranium concentrates sourced outside Australia to nuclear electric utilities in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America.  The Company also provides environmental consulting services.

Productive Technologies Company Limited provides productivity solutions to semiconductor and solar cell manufacturers. The Company is engaged in advanced manufacturing of equipment applied in semiconductor and solar power businesses, as well as operates a crude oil asset. Productive Technologies serves customers in China.

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

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American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

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