Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EV adoption in the ASEAN is very low compared to developed markets including the US, the Europe and China due to higher ASPs and lack of logistics, maintenance and repair.</li>
<li>However, there has been a rapid growth in EV related investment in the region recently, focusing on developing domestic EV markets to make them more affordable while conserving the environment.</li>
<li>The governments have put forward several incentives such as government funding, tax incentives to buy EVs, while introducing measures to discourage the use of ICE vehicles.</li>
</ul>


EV adoption in the ASEAN is very low compared to developed markets including the US, the Europe and China due to higher ASPs and lack of logistics, maintenance and repair.
However, there has been a rapid growth in EV related investment in the region recently, focusing on developing domestic EV markets to make them more affordable while conserving the environment.
The governments have put forward several incentives such as government funding, tax incentives to buy EVs, while introducing measures to discourage the use of ICE vehicles.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Series: Committed Towards Building a Regional EV Ecosystem

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 12 additions to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index for Asia. The changes were announced on 8 April and will be implemented at the close on 22 April.</li>
<li>Largest inflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chubu-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14574:1" rel="noopener">Chubu Electric Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-yangtze-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3210:1" rel="noopener">China Yangtze Power</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-absolute-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10377:1" rel="noopener">Energy Absolute</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longi-green-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12703:1" rel="noopener">LONGi Green Energy Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ja-solar-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16597:1" rel="noopener">JA Solar Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-zhonghuan-semiconductor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6791:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sungrow-power-supply-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4255:1" rel="noopener">Sungrow Power Supply</a>.</li>
<li>The largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meridian-ener-partly-paid-sh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1" rel="noopener">Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contact-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1" rel="noopener">Contact Energy (CEN NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27808:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are 12 additions to the S&amp;P Global Clean Energy Index for Asia. The changes were announced on 8 April and will be implemented at the close on 22 April.
Largest inflows are on Chubu Electric Power, China Yangtze Power, Adani Green Energy, Energy Absolute, LONGi Green Energy Technology, JA Solar Technology, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor and Sungrow Power Supply.
The largest outflows are expected on Meridian Energy (MEL NZ), Contact Energy (CEN NZ) and Xinyi Energy Holdings Ltd (3868 HK). 


S&P Global Clean Energy Index: Changes for Asia & Impact

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thai Airways International / Equity Bottom-Up

Five interesting news/developments that could impact Thai equities:<ul>
<li>
Updates on Thai Airways restructuring. The Planner gives out details about potential merger with Thai Smile and who will likely call the shots (bondholders, Boeing, Airbus) in the long run.</li>
<li>
Four New Airports. Bhumjaithai's Transport Minister pushes AOT to expand four more airports even as passenger throughput falls by more than half. Some locations such as Buriram seem politically oriented but make less business sense.</li>
<li>
Debt Exploding, as budget deficits lead Thai government to authorize Bt214bn of new loans. Public debt to GDP could rise to 57% by next year, prompting the State to raise its debt ceiling above 60%.</li>
<li>
Everyone wants power! From PTT to EA, everyone wants a piece of the action in the power sector. Increasing stakes in power companies, running electric ferries on the Chao Phrya, you name it.</li>
<li>
TTA's Ship Comes Home. The shipper is guiding for a strong revenue growth of 31% and expansion of both its fleet and restaurant outlets.</li>
</ul>

Five interesting news/developments that could impact Thai equities:

Updates on Thai Airways restructuring. The Planner gives out details about potential merger with Thai Smile and who will likely call the shots (bondholders, Boeing, Airbus) in the long run.

Four New Airports. Bhumjaithai's Transport Minister pushes AOT to expand four more airports even as passenger throughput falls by more than half. Some locations such as Buriram seem politically oriented but make less business sense.

Debt Exploding, as budget deficits lead Thai government to authorize Bt214bn of new loans. Public debt to GDP could rise to 57% by next year, prompting the State to raise its debt ceiling above 60%.

Everyone wants power! From PTT to EA, everyone wants a piece of the action in the power sector. Increasing stakes in power companies, running electric ferries on the Chao Phrya, you name it.

TTA's Ship Comes Home. The shipper is guiding for a strong revenue growth of 31% and expansion of both its fleet and restaurant outlets.


Snippets #44: More Turbulence at THAI, Four New Airports!

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the SET50 index in December and the changes will be effective from 2 January 2020. Passive funds and index arb desks will need to trade at (or by) the close on 30 December 2019.We see a possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1">VGI Global Media (VGI TB)</a> being added to the SET50 index in this review and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banpu-power-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23631:1">Banpu Power PCL (BPP TB)</a> as a possible deletion candidate.This Insight covers the SET50 index methodology, our expected changes, historical impact on additions/deletions to the index and suggest trades for this rebalance.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the SET50 index in December and the changes will be effective from 2 January 2020. Passive funds and index arb desks will need to trade at (or by) the close on 30 December 2019.We see a possibility of VGI Global Media (VGI TB) being added to the SET50 index in this review and Banpu Power PCL (BPP TB) as a possible deletion candidate.This Insight covers the SET50 index methodology, our expected changes, historical impact on additions/deletions to the index and suggest trades for this rebalance.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview - Better Early Than Late

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Oil prices shot back up to US$60/bbl levels in 2019. 'Experts' claim it has to do with lower US inventories, but we believe the truth is murkier than that. Instead of dwelling on the dynamics, let's focus on which stocks benefits when the pendulum swings the other way.<ul>
<li>
 Near-term: PTTEP is the most direct beneficiary of higher oil prices. The crude they dig, rig, or suck out of the Earth immediately appreciates in value, and so does sentiments for their stock. It may also impact monetary policies, raising interest rates and benefiting banks.</li>
<li>
Medium-term, we expect people to focus on substitutes. Alternative energy providers like Bangchak could see improvement in volumes as their product becomes more competitive.</li>
<li>
Longer term, people would be more willing to switch to electric cars, benefiting both chargers (think EA) and coal (Banpu....someone still needs to generate electricity).</li>
<li>There could also be lifestyle changes, which means condos closer to offices become more popular as a means to save on transport cost. Think AP, Sansiri, and BTS.</li>
</ul>

Oil prices shot back up to US$60/bbl levels in 2019. 'Experts' claim it has to do with lower US inventories, but we believe the truth is murkier than that. Instead of dwelling on the dynamics, let's focus on which stocks benefits when the pendulum swings the other way.

 Near-term: PTTEP is the most direct beneficiary of higher oil prices. The crude they dig, rig, or suck out of the Earth immediately appreciates in value, and so does sentiments for their stock. It may also impact monetary policies, raising interest rates and benefiting banks.

Medium-term, we expect people to focus on substitutes. Alternative energy providers like Bangchak could see improvement in volumes as their product becomes more competitive.

Longer term, people would be more willing to switch to electric cars, benefiting both chargers (think EA) and coal (Banpu....someone still needs to generate electricity).
There could also be lifestyle changes, which means condos closer to offices become more popular as a means to save on transport cost. Think AP, Sansiri, and BTS.


Thailand

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

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Energy Absolute (EA TB)

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Series: Committed Towards Building a Regional EV Ecosystem

EV adoption in the ASEAN is very low compared to developed markets. However, there has been rapid growth in EV related investment recently, aiming...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

S&P Global Clean Energy Index: Changes for Asia & Impact

There are 12 adds for Asia as a part of the S&P Global Clean Energy Index rebal, plus other changes. There have not been any big price moves since...

Brian Freitas

Snippets #44: More Turbulence at THAI, Four New Airports!

Five interesting

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview - Better Early Than Late

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the SET50 index in December and the changes will be...

Brian Freitas

Oil Prices Are Up. Which Stock Benefits?

Oil prices shot back up to US$60/bbl levels in 2019. 'Experts' claim it has to do with lower US inventories, but we believe the truth is murkier...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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