Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The sharp price drops experienced by the Adani Group companies have resulted in a negative change in index flow expectations for some names.</li>
<li>However, some Adani Group companies could be experiencing positive index flows in the June 2023 rebalance due to some peculiar derivative-linkage requirements in the index methodology.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.
The sharp price drops experienced by the Adani Group companies have resulted in a negative change in index flow expectations for some names.
However, some Adani Group companies could be experiencing positive index flows in the June 2023 rebalance due to some peculiar derivative-linkage requirements in the index methodology.


Quiddity Leaderboard for BSE/SENSEX Jun 23: Mixed Expectations for Adani Names. Some Lose. Some Win.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like DALBHARA for its robust volume and margin outlook</li><li>Dalmia reported strong volume growth (+12/9% YoY/QoQ) and healthy unit EBITDA recovery (+INR 300/365/MT YoY/QoQ) to solid INR 1,021 per MT, driven by both realisation firm-up and cost reduction</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like DALBHARA for its robust volume and margin outlookDalmia reported strong volume growth (+12/9% YoY/QoQ) and healthy unit EBITDA recovery (+INR 300/365/MT YoY/QoQ) to solid INR 1,021 per MT, driven by both realisation firm-up and cost reductionContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Sundaram Finance, Apollo Tyres

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> could be added and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> could be deleted from the SENSEX Index. There could be multiple changes for BSE 100, 200, and 500.</li>
<li>Below is a look at our estimated rankings for potential ADDs/DELs, their recent price performance vs peers, and potential trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, 200, and 500 Indices in the June 2023 Rebalance.

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could be added and Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) could be deleted from the SENSEX Index. There could be multiple changes for BSE 100, 200, and 500.
Below is a look at our estimated rankings for potential ADDs/DELs, their recent price performance vs peers, and potential trading opportunities.


S&P BSE/​​Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

<ul><li>Expect similar volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in Q2FY23)</li><li>Rural demand remained tepid while some green shoots were visible at the end of the quarter</li><li>Urban demand too was not different from that seen in Q2</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect similar volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in Q2FY23)Rural demand remained tepid while some green shoots were visible at the end of the quarterUrban demand too was not different from that seen in Q2Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

<ul><li>Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)</li><li>ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volume</li><li>Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volumeDemand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

India

Emami Limited develops and distributes personal, beauty, and healthcare products in India and other countries.  The Company manufactures herbal and Ayurvedic products, including antiseptic cream, prickly heat powder, pain balm, and cool oil.

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Emami Ltd (HMN IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard for BSE/SENSEX Jun 23: Mixed Expectations for Adani Names. Some Lose. Some Win.

Based on current data, I do not see any changes for SENSEX. I see 6 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 with Adani Names involved in both sides and I see 3 ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Sundaram Finance, Apollo Tyres

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

I see one change for SENSEX, four changes for BSE 100, and three changes for BSE 200 based on the latest available data. There could be around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

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Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard for BSE/SENSEX Jun 23: Mixed Expectations for Adani Names. Some Lose. Some Win.

Based on current data, I do not see any changes for SENSEX. I see 6 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 with Adani Names involved in both sides and I see 3 ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Sundaram Finance, Apollo Tyres

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

S&P BSE/​​Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions

I see one change for SENSEX, four changes for BSE 100, and three changes for BSE 200 based on the latest available data. There could be around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Unchanged demand trend, some respite in margins

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/11% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY23 (vs 17/10% in Q3FY22 and 8/11% in...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

S&P BSE/Sensex Quiddity Leaderboard Jun 23: Adani Enterprises, Wipro, & The Usual F&O Questions