External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) delivered a positive surprise with quarterly revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 19.2/3.3/3.2bn, beating our estimates by 7/15/33%</li><li>On a full-year basis, these were the highest ever</li><li>CIL is seeing strong pre-buy for its below 800kW power gensets as the CPCB 4+ norm will become effective from 1 July 2023</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) delivered a positive surprise with quarterly revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 19.2/3.3/3.2bn, beating our estimates by 7/15/33%On a full-year basis, these were the highest everCIL is seeing strong pre-buy for its below 800kW power gensets as the CPCB 4+ norm will become effective from 1 July 2023Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Cummins, Oil India, Phoenix Mills, Emami

<ul><li>Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q2 top-line print</li><li>Standalone revenue grew 30% CAGR (three-year) to INR18.14bn</li><li>We suspect while Westside’s growth remains handsome (HSIE: 3-yr CAGR 17%), Zudio’s blitz-scaling continues to be a big needle-mover</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q2 top-line printStandalone revenue grew 30% CAGR (three-year) to INR18.14bnWe suspect while Westside’s growth remains handsome (HSIE: 3-yr CAGR 17%), Zudio’s blitz-scaling continues to be a big needle-moverContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Trent, NHPC, Astral, Torrent Power, Emami, Fine Organic Industries

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)</li><li>Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)</li><li>Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is above 60,000 we are constructive from a price perspective.  China (CSI 300, MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while South Korea (KOSPI) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure.

India

Emami Infrastructure Ltd. is a real estate development company. The Company's operations span all aspects of real estate development, from the identification and acquisition of land, to the planning, execution and marketing of its projects through to the maintenance and management of its completed developments.

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Emami Infrastructure (EMMI IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Cummins, Oil India, Phoenix Mills, Emami

Cummins: Cummins India Ltd (CIL) delivered a positive surprise with quarterly revenue/EBITDA/PAT at INR 19.2/3.3/3.2bn, beating our estimates by 7...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Trent, NHPC, Astral, Torrent Power, Emami, Fine Organic Industries

Trent: Trent reported a stellar Q2 top-line print. Standalone revenue grew 30% CAGR (three-year) to INR18.14bn. We suspect while Westside’s growth...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural). Thereby, the industry is...

HDFC Securities

Remain Overweight EM Relative To EAFE

The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains in an uptrend and is testing all-time highs set in January 2018 near 65,800; as long as the index is...

Vermilion Research

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