Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Each index appears to be forming a bearish flag pattern. Until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their YTD downtrends, we remain bearish.
We continue to believe that this bear market is being fueled by the rising U.S. dollar (DXY), rising 10-yr Treasury yield, and the move higher in WTI crude oil.


U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Aztiq and Innobic have formally become the leading shareholder of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotus-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20568:1" rel="noopener">Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT)</a>, with the controlling stake of 51%. New ownership will accelerate the growth and expansion of Lotus.</li>
<li>Lotus has created a niche for itself through its focus on oral oncology drug. Launch of Lenalidomide in 14 European countries drove 31% q/q growth in export revenue in Q1.</li>
<li>Continued strong uptake of the company’s newly acquired drug Cialis in Taiwan and bevacizumab biosimilar launch in Korea and Taiwan should boost its Asian business revenue.</li>
</ul>


Aztiq and Innobic have formally become the leading shareholder of  Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT), with the controlling stake of 51%. New ownership will accelerate the growth and expansion of Lotus.
Lotus has created a niche for itself through its focus on oral oncology drug. Launch of Lenalidomide in 14 European countries drove 31% q/q growth in export revenue in Q1.
Continued strong uptake of the company’s newly acquired drug Cialis in Taiwan and bevacizumab biosimilar launch in Korea and Taiwan should boost its Asian business revenue.


Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Ready for Next Phase of Growth with New Ownership and Product Launch

<ul>
<li>A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.</li>
<li>Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.</li>
<li>This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.</li>
</ul>


A bear market bounce is underway after the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) found support at their respective downtrend channels, a possibility we discussed last week.
Still, until the S&amp;P 500, QQQ, and IWM can break above their various downtrends, we remain bearish, and believe investors should be using rallies to reduce overall exposure.
This 1-week rally has the NDX(QQQ) testing resistance at its falling wedge pattern; a break above $297 would likely mean this bear market bounce has another 2-4 weeks of upside.


Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

Boryung Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boryung-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19265:1" rel="noopener">Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS)</a> aims to achieve a revenue CAGR of 10.9% during 2022–2026 (from 7.8% in 2017–2021) through a chronic disease-focused prescription drug portfolio.  </li>
<li>While hypertension and dyslipidemia drugs remain its cash cow, Boryung has identified oncology and CNS as its new growth engine to achieve KRW1 trillion revenue in 2026.</li>
<li>Driven by a 28% y/y growth in prescription drug revenue, Boryung has reported record high quarterly sales and operating profit in Q1 2022. The company is continuously launching new drugs.</li>
</ul>



Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS) aims to achieve a revenue CAGR of 10.9% during 2022–2026 (from 7.8% in 2017–2021) through a chronic disease-focused prescription drug portfolio.  
While hypertension and dyslipidemia drugs remain its cash cow, Boryung has identified oncology and CNS as its new growth engine to achieve KRW1 trillion revenue in 2026.
Driven by a 28% y/y growth in prescription drug revenue, Boryung has reported record high quarterly sales and operating profit in Q1 2022. The company is continuously launching new drugs.


Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Focus on Prescription Drugs for Stability and Accelerated Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> reported muted Q1 results, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit declining quarter-over-quarter. Its biosimilar products in the EU are facing price competition.</li>
<li>Celltrion has recalled its COVID-19 rapid antigen test kits in the U.S. in April, which marks its third such recall in less than two months.</li>
<li>Celltrion shares plunged 15% since I published bearish insight on the company on March 8. Bear thesis of biosimilar competition still holds good for the company.</li>
</ul>



Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) reported muted Q1 results, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit declining quarter-over-quarter. Its biosimilar products in the EU are facing price competition.
Celltrion has recalled its COVID-19 rapid antigen test kits in the U.S. in April, which marks its third such recall in less than two months.
Celltrion shares plunged 15% since I published bearish insight on the company on March 8. Bear thesis of biosimilar competition still holds good for the company.


Celltrion (068270 KS): Muted Q1 2022 Performance Reflects Continuing Biosimilars Pricing Pressure

United States

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products for humans and animals. The Company products are sold in countries around the world. Eli Lilly products include neuroscience, endocrine, anti-infectives, cardiovascular agents, oncology, and animal health products.

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Eli Lilly & (LLY UN)

U.S. Indexes Form Bear Flag Patterns Within Downtrends; Opportunities Within Health Care

We continue to view the price action over the past month as a bear market bounce in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), as each...

Vermilion Research

Lotus Pharmaceutical (1795 TT): Ready for Next Phase of Growth with New Ownership and Product Launch

Lotus has already created a compelling position in ASEAN, which has been further augmented by oral oncology drug launch in Europe. New ownership...

Tina Banerjee

Signs of Disinflation?; Commodities Deteriorating; Another Bear Market Bounce; Pharma/Biotech Buys

A bear market bounce is underway after the SPX, QQQ, and IWM found support at their respective downtrend channels. Until these indexes can break...

Vermilion Research

Boryung Pharmaceutical (003850 KS): Focus on Prescription Drugs for Stability and Accelerated Growth

Boryung is well-positioned for accelerated revenue growth through 2026, through its increasing focus on launching new prescription drugs in the...

Tina Banerjee

Celltrion (068270 KS): Muted Q1 2022 Performance Reflects Continuing Biosimilars Pricing Pressure

Celltrion reported weak Q1 results, with its operating and net profit declining y/y as well as q/q. Biosimilar selling price continues to erode due...

Tina Banerjee

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