Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Negative surrounding factors pressured the share prices of the power sector last week.</li><li>Meanwhile, our key assumptions for 2024E, including SPP gas prices and the electricity sales volume of IUs, have been maintained.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that SPP operators’ current valuations are attractive and that the downside risk is very limited, with the equity risk premiums (ERP) higher than the 90-day rolling average. </li></ul>

Negative surrounding factors pressured the share prices of the power sector last week.Meanwhile, our key assumptions for 2024E, including SPP gas prices and the electricity sales volume of IUs, have been maintained.The valuation metrics suggest that SPP operators’ current valuations are attractive and that the downside risk is very limited, with the equity risk premiums (ERP) higher than the 90-day rolling average. 

Industry Update - Energy (Power) - JUNE 17, 2024

<ul><li>The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.</li><li>These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.</li><li>The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. </li></ul>

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat from the previous period.These rates align with the Case 3 scenario, representing the lowest figures, and are in line with our 2024E projections, supported by the declining trend in gas costs, including lower LNG prices and increased G1/61 gas volume.The decision is expected to facilitate effective management of electricity tariffs and enhance the opportunities and continuity for EGAT's reclamation of the Ft subsidy, which is nearing Bt100bn. 

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Electricity Generating / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt220 derived from DCF, implying 9.5xPE’22E. Despite reported net loss of Bt777m in 2Q22 due to unrealized losses from FX and derivative</li>
<li>Earnings dragged by Paju and FX losses in 2Q22 EGCOreported a net loss of Bt777m in 2Q22,the first time loss in the past nine quarters which was dragged by unrealized </li>
<li>Meanwhile, its 2Q22 recurring profit stood at Bt3.2bn (17% YoY, -29% QoQ), which came in line with our expectations. The QoQ core earnings drop was caused by lower electricity sales </li>
</ul>


Maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt220 derived from DCF, implying 9.5xPE’22E. Despite reported net loss of Bt777m in 2Q22 due to unrealized losses from FX and derivative
Earnings dragged by Paju and FX losses in 2Q22 EGCOreported a net loss of Bt777m in 2Q22,the first time loss in the past nine quarters which was dragged by unrealized 
Meanwhile, its 2Q22 recurring profit stood at Bt3.2bn (17% YoY, -29% QoQ), which came in line with our expectations. The QoQ core earnings drop was caused by lower electricity sales 


<ul>
<li>The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone.The solid 2022 earnings outlook, decent dividend yield and lowering ESG concerns from transition to clean energy should support the stock performance.</li>
<li>Expect 2Q recurring profit to remain weak and recover thereafter, following seasonality of Paju ES, (49% stake, 1.8GWe).</li>
<li>The 2022 outlook looks solid from normalizing power plant operation (recovering demand)after COVID1-19 impact. Also,we see upside from new project acquisition as the company target to add 1.0GWe to portfolio</li>
</ul>


The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone.The solid 2022 earnings outlook, decent dividend yield and lowering ESG concerns from transition to clean energy should support the stock performance.
Expect 2Q recurring profit to remain weak and recover thereafter, following seasonality of Paju ES, (49% stake, 1.8GWe).
The 2022 outlook looks solid from normalizing power plant operation (recovering demand)after COVID1-19 impact. Also,we see upside from new project acquisition as the company target to add 1.0GWe to portfolio


EGCO: Clean Energy Transition to Relegate ESG Concerns

<ul>
<li>Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone.We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt220.0 derived using DCF methodology (WACC 9.8%, TG 1%), implying 11.0xPE’22E.</li>
<li>Expect the 1Q22 recurring profit to improve YoY and QoQ on the back of profit recognition from investments in Linden, APEX (USA, 2Q-4Q21). Moreover, seasonal better electricity sales should offset</li>
<li>The company maintains the CAPEX plan of Bt30bn for 2022, targeting new renewable energy project additions. We expect EGCO to add around 1,000MW to portfolio in 2022 </li>
</ul>


Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone.We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt220.0 derived using DCF methodology (WACC 9.8%, TG 1%), implying 11.0xPE’22E.
Expect the 1Q22 recurring profit to improve YoY and QoQ on the back of profit recognition from investments in Linden, APEX (USA, 2Q-4Q21). Moreover, seasonal better electricity sales should offset
The company maintains the CAPEX plan of Bt30bn for 2022, targeting new renewable energy project additions. We expect EGCO to add around 1,000MW to portfolio in 2022 


EGCO: Undemanding Valuation and Bright 2022 Outlook

Thailand

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited is an electric utility holding company.  The Company, through its two major subsidiaries, produces and supplies electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), under long term power purchase agreements of 20 and 15 years.  It also operates energy related businesses through joint ventures.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)

Industry Update - Energy (Power) - JUNE 17, 2024

Headwinds from inflated share prices; cheap valuation, limited downside. Negative surrounding factors pressured the share prices of the power...

Krungthai XSpring

Energy (Power) - Flat Electricity Tariff and Ft for May to August

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) resolved to set the electricity tariff at Bt4.18/unit and Ft at Bt0.3972/unit for May to August 2024, flat...

Krungthai XSpring

EGCO : Better 2H22 Outlook

Maintain BUY rating with a target price of Bt220 derived from DCF, implying 9.5xPE’22E. Despite reported net loss of Bt777m in 2Q22 due to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

EGCO: Clean Energy Transition to Relegate ESG Concerns

The analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. The solid 2022 earnings outlook, decent dividend yield and lowering ESG concerns from transition...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

EGCO: Undemanding Valuation and Bright 2022 Outlook

Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY call based on a target price of Bt220.0 derived using DCF methodology...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)