CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

Electricity Generating / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Improving asset turnover, strong stock price momentum, and improving operating profit relative to its sector</li><li>International expansion with the acquisition of Chevron’s 402MW geothermal project in Indonesia (20% stake), contributions expected to start in 2Q17</li><li>EGCO has definite capacity growth plans in place as the commissioning of Small Power Producers—TP, TJ and SK Cogen, with combined capacity of 322MW—starts in 3Q17</li><li>Trades in line with ASEAN Utilities at 17CE* 11.5x PE but offers substantially better EPS growth</li><li>Risks: Construction delays on new projects, plant outages</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Improving asset turnover, strong stock price momentum, and improving operating profit relative to its sectorInternational expansion with the acquisition of Chevron’s 402MW geothermal project in Indonesia (20% stake), contributions expected to start in 2Q17EGCO has definite capacity growth plans in place as the commissioning of Small Power Producers—TP, TJ and SK Cogen, with combined capacity of 322MW—starts in 3Q17Trades in line with ASEAN Utilities at 17CE* 11.5x PE but offers substantially better EPS growthRisks: Construction delays on new projects, plant outages* Consensus Estimates

EGCO (EGCO TB): Expansion Plans Power Price and Profit

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Only Gets Hotter from Here On. Summer typically starts in February in Thailand. In the South, there are only two seasons, but elsewhere, summer will stretch between February to around May. We are not saying every stock in this article is a buy. What we're saying is that for them, summer usually acts as an important sales catalyst or at least a time when they gain attention from investors yo. The rainy season, which starts in late May and goes all the way to October, is by far the country's…

Only Gets Hotter from Here On. Summer typically starts in February in Thailand. In the South, there are only two seasons, but elsewhere, summer will stretch between February to around May. We are not saying every stock in this article is a buy. What we're saying is that for them, summer usually acts as an important sales catalyst or at least a time when they gain attention from investors yo. The rainy season, which starts in late May and goes all the way to October, is by far the country's…

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund / Equity Bottom-Up

North Bangkok Power Plant Block 1 Infrastructure Fund

EGAT is the state-owned power company that controls over half of the electricity generation capacity in Thailand as well as two of the country's biggest IPPs: Ratchaburi and EGCO. Other listed assets include the North Bangkok power plant (EGATIF) and Eastwater, an EGCO investment for industrial power. In this review, we explain the basics of Thai power industry and highlight why we like Ratchaburi best. Power is by far the most defensive sector in Thailand, and no one dominates it more than this Group.

EGAT is the state-owned power company that controls over half of the electricity generation capacity in Thailand as well as two of the country's biggest IPPs: Ratchaburi and EGCO. Other listed assets include the North Bangkok power plant (EGATIF) and Eastwater, an EGCO investment for industrial power. In this review, we explain the basics of Thai power industry and highlight why we like Ratchaburi best. Power is by far the most defensive sector in Thailand, and no one dominates it more than this Group.

Big Brother (Ep. 4): The Invisible Power Company

<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stock</td>
<td>Shr price (Bt/sh)</td>
<td>Mkt cap (US$ bn)</td>
<td>% ytd performance</td>
<td>PE (x)</td>
<td>Yld (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">EGATIF</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">11.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">0.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">12.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">N/A</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">RATCH</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">51.75</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">2.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9.0</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">EGCO</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">201</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.1</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">32.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">17.7</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">GLOW</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">86</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">3.6</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">19.2</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">13.4</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>What happened to markets? Thai equities have risen almost 20% this year. After 3-4 years of continuous selling (Bt400bn), foreign investors drove markets upwards by buying some Bt100bn in Thai equities this year. The Baht continues to strengthen over the last two days from Bt34.8 to Bt34.6, but both foreign and local funds sold heavily…



Stock
Shr price (Bt/sh)
Mkt cap (US$ bn)
% ytd performance
PE (x)
Yld (%)


EGATIF
11.6
0.7
12.6
N/A
2.6


RATCH
51.75
2.2
9.0
23.2
4.4


EGCO
201
3.1
32.7
17.7
3.1


GLOW
86
3.6
19.2
13.4
4.1

What happened to markets? Thai equities have risen almost 20% this year. After 3-4 years of continuous selling (Bt400bn), foreign investors drove markets upwards by buying some Bt100bn in Thai equities this year. The Baht continues to strengthen over the last two days from Bt34.8 to Bt34.6, but both foreign and local funds sold heavily…

Thailand

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited is an electric utility holding company.  The Company, through its two major subsidiaries, produces and supplies electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), under long term power purchase agreements of 20 and 15 years.  It also operates energy related businesses through joint ventures.

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Electricity Generating (EGCO TB)

EGCO (EGCO TB): Expansion Plans Power Price and Profit

Improving asset turnover, strong stock price momentum, andimproving operating profit relative to its sector International expansion with the...

A. Stotz Investment Research

This Ain't Winterfell, Summer Is Coming!

Only Gets Hotter from Here On. Summer typically starts in February in Thailand. In the South, there are only two seasons, but elsewhere, summer...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Big Brother (Ep. 4): The Invisible Power Company

EGAT is the state-owned power company that controls over half of the electricity generation capacity in Thailand as well as two of the country's...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

EGATIF: Safer than a Mattress

What happened to markets? Thai equities have risen almost 20% this year. After 3-4 years of continuous selling (Bt400bn), foreign investors drove...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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