Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

Ishares Global Consumer Disc / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.</li>
<li>Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing some positive signals that suggest the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or at the very least, that downside is limited from here.
Still, YTD downtrends remain intact on the global MSCI equity indexes, and we need to see reversals of their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
Cyclical Growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and we are upgrading the MSCI ACWI Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services Sectors from underweight to market weight. Add exposure.


Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Infrastructure and E-commerce are core drivers of the MHCV recovery </li>
<li>The market for Retail fleet operators (1-5 trucks) has shrunk. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> 's market share gain has been on the back of discounting and is unlikely to sustain. </li>
</ul>


Infrastructure and E-commerce are core drivers of the MHCV recovery 
The market for Retail fleet operators (1-5 trucks) has shrunk. 

Ashok Leyland (AL IN) 's market share gain has been on the back of discounting and is unlikely to sustain. 


India Channel Insight #38 | Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors (MHCV)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor (TVSL IN)'s </a>market share gains in the premium segment can further accelerate in case of easing supply issues and rural recovery. </li>
<li>While EV may not materially move the volumes in the near term, the ramp-up of the newly launched TVS iQube (EV) will determine the sentiment around the stock. </li>
<li>The sector view is positive, but current valuations are not lucrative enough to ignore capital allocation issues that have been a concern for TVSL. </li>
</ul>



TVS Motor (TVSL IN)'s market share gains in the premium segment can further accelerate in case of easing supply issues and rural recovery. 
While EV may not materially move the volumes in the near term, the ramp-up of the newly launched TVS iQube (EV) will determine the sentiment around the stock. 
The sector view is positive, but current valuations are not lucrative enough to ignore capital allocation issues that have been a concern for TVSL. 


TVS Motor (TVSL IN) | Supply Issues & EV Ramp Up the Key

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. </li>
<li>Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. </li>
<li>While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. </li>
</ul>



Eicher Motors (EIM IN) is well-positioned to offset margin pressures due to its aspirational brand, the success of its new models and exports. 
Easing supply issues along with newer export markets provide a compelling runway for revenue growth. 
While our estimates are in line with consensus,  we believe the YTD outperformance is likely to continue and any opportunities presented amidst market volatility must be exploited. 


Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

India

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

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Eicher Motors (EIM IN)

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Positive Signals; Growth Sectors Gaining Momentum; Buy Ideas Within Global Growth Sectors

Starting to see positive signals that suggest downside is limited from here. Still, we need to see reversals of YTD downtrends on $ACWI $ACWX $EFA...

Vermilion Research

India Channel Insight #38 | Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors (MHCV)

We speak to channels across the west and north of India to understand the current pace of recovery and competitive dynamics between Ashok Leyland...

Pranav Bhavsar

TVS Motor (TVSL IN) | Supply Issues & EV Ramp Up the Key

With expected easing in supplies & EV ramp up, volumes can accelerate, however at current valuations, capital allocation issues are tough to...

Pranav Bhavsar

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | The "Twins" (New Models & Exports) Are Firing

We expect Eicher Motors (EIM IN) outperformance to continue. Improvement in supplies, New models, Export margins, and the ability to manage cost...

Pranav Bhavsar

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