Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.</li>
<li>As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.</li>
<li>Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples</li>
</ul>


Last week we discussed potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get more defensive.
As long as the S&amp;P 500 is below Wednesdays high of 4040 we continue to believe the bears are in control -- stay defensive.
Even if there is a reversal, we still expect 4165-4200 on SPX to cap upside for 2023. We highlight many buy opportunities within Consumer Staples


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Key Points:<ul>
<li>The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals.</li>
<li>REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS leadership.</li>
<li>Paper &amp; Forest products are strengthening and many are reversing price and RS downtrend or breaking above bases.</li>
<li>Large-Cap Pharma stocks are showing leadership. Many have broken topside of multi-year consolidations or have reversed multi-year price and RS downtrends.</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/921/original/Untitled.png?1533586859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59921"></figure>

Key Points:
The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals.
REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS leadership.
Paper &amp; Forest products are strengthening and many are reversing price and RS downtrend or breaking above bases.
Large-Cap Pharma stocks are showing leadership. Many have broken topside of multi-year consolidations or have reversed multi-year price and RS downtrends.


Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Men’s grooming rose in current value by 2% in 2017 as sales to reach TWD3.5 billion.</li><li>Men’s grooming continued to benefit from the rising social acceptance of men taking care of their appearance.</li><li>Negative or marginally positive average unit price growth was recorded in all men’s grooming categories in current terms in 2017, with men’s fragrances the only exception as sales shift to premium brands.</li><li>Edgewell Personal Care Taiwan Ltd led sales in men’s grooming in 2017 with a value share of 12%.</li><li>Men’s grooming is set to register a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period with sales set to hit TWD3.7 billion by 2022.</li></ul>

Men’s grooming rose in current value by 2% in 2017 as sales to reach TWD3.5 billion.Men’s grooming continued to benefit from the rising social acceptance of men taking care of their appearance.Negative or marginally positive average unit price growth was recorded in all men’s grooming categories in current terms in 2017, with men’s fragrances the only exception as sales shift to premium brands.Edgewell Personal Care Taiwan Ltd led sales in men’s grooming in 2017 with a value share of 12%.Men’s grooming is set to register a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period with sales set to hit TWD3.7 billion by 2022.

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education, Research From Beijing

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

CHINA - Healthcare, Steel, Autos, Education

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>China has the highest level of consumer confidence in the world.</li><li>China disposable income up 7.3% YoY.</li><li>China napkins and diaper segments grew 11% in 2Q17 YoY.</li><li>Chinese consumers are willing to pay premium prices for perceived higher value disposable diapers.</li><li>We favour companies producing disposable diapers for the Chinese market, as growth has been exceptional at 27% YoY.</li><li>Online is the biggest channel for diapers exceeding offline since August 2016 hitting 67% share in June 2017.</li><li>Online prices for diapers can be as much as 80%+ cheaper.</li><li>Imported diapers sell better than domestically produced due to safety and comfort highlighting the importance of the one child.</li><li>We think the Japanese brands are growing the fastest such as Unicharm and Kao while P&amp;G and Hengan are losing share.</li></ul>

China has the highest level of consumer confidence in the world.China disposable income up 7.3% YoY.China napkins and diaper segments grew 11% in 2Q17 YoY.Chinese consumers are willing to pay premium prices for perceived higher value disposable diapers.We favour companies producing disposable diapers for the Chinese market, as growth has been exceptional at 27% YoY.Online is the biggest channel for diapers exceeding offline since August 2016 hitting 67% share in June 2017.Online prices for diapers can be as much as 80%+ cheaper.Imported diapers sell better than domestically produced due to safety and comfort highlighting the importance of the one child.We think the Japanese brands are growing the fastest such as Unicharm and Kao while P&amp;G and Hengan are losing share.

China Consumers - Chinese Prefer Japanese Diapers - We Go Shopping to Find Out

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Should we be concerned that a Chinese pork producer is buying the largest hog producer in the US? Growing concerns over food safety and problems with antibiotic resistance due to misuse should be taken seriously.

Should we be concerned that a Chinese pork producer is buying the largest hog producer in the US? Growing concerns over food safety and problems with antibiotic resistance due to misuse should be taken seriously.

United States

Edgewell Personal Care Co., manufactures and markets a diversified range of personal care  products in the wet shave, skin care, feminine care and infant care categories.  The Companies products include shaving systems and disposable razors, feminine care products, sun care products, infant feeding, gloves and moist wipes.

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Edgewell Personal Care Co (EPC US)

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA All Testing Resistance; Downgrading Financials to Underweight; Buy Staples

Last week (3/21) we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the $SPX, or even the 4165-4200 range, which we noted...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Vital Signs: Actionable Stocks

Key Points: The Staples Sector is leadership and many names are staging price and RS reversals. REIT’s are breaking above bases and are showing RS...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in Taiwan

Men’s grooming rose in current value by 2% in 2017 as sales to reach TWD3.5 billion. Men’s grooming continued to benefit from the rising social...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

China Consumers - Chinese Prefer Japanese Diapers - We Go Shopping to Find Out

China has the highest level of consumer confidence in the world. China disposable income up 7.3% YoY. China napkins and diaper segments grew 11%...

Scott Laprise/ 乐天虎

Issues Raised by WH Group and US Pork

Should we be concerned that a Chinese pork producer is buying the largest hog producer in the US? Growing concerns over food safety and problems...

Bixmoor

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