Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Shift Up is target price of 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (60,000 won).</li>
<li>We believe Shift Up deserves higher valuation multiples than its peers mainly due to higher sales growth, much higher operating margins, and higher ROE.</li>
<li>Since its launch in April of this year, Stellar Blade (PS console game) has ranked first in sales in eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Shift Up is target price of 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (60,000 won).
We believe Shift Up deserves higher valuation multiples than its peers mainly due to higher sales growth, much higher operating margins, and higher ROE.
Since its launch in April of this year, Stellar Blade (PS console game) has ranked first in sales in eight countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, Indian IPOs continued to do well, we also looked at two upcoming deals in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>On the placement front, last week ended up being one of the busiest ones so far this year with five deals live just on Thursday night alone. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Indian IPOs continued to do well, we also looked at two upcoming deals in Hong Kong.
On the placement front, last week ended up being one of the busiest ones so far this year with five deals live just on Thursday night alone. 


ECM Weekly (20th May 2024) -Lalatech, Go Digit, Aadhar, TBO Tek, Ecopro, Nexus, Modec, Hyundai Heavy

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

HD Hyundai Marine Solution  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After a 96.5% gain on listing day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS)</a> is very close to levels needed for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> inclusion in June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hd-hyundai-marine-solution-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41002:1" rel="noopener">HD Hyundai Marine Solution</a> needs to outperform the 50th ranked stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> by 11.4% on average over the next 15 trading days to be added to the index.</li>
<li>Retail investors sold 25% of their allocation on listing day while foreign investors sold 22% of their IPO allocation with local institutions mopping up the shares.</li>
</ul>


After a 96.5% gain on listing day, HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is very close to levels needed for Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) inclusion in June.

HD Hyundai Marine Solution needs to outperform the 50th ranked stock in the KOSPI2 INDEX by 11.4% on average over the next 15 trading days to be added to the index.
Retail investors sold 25% of their allocation on listing day while foreign investors sold 22% of their IPO allocation with local institutions mopping up the shares.


HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS): Nearing KOSPI200 Index Inclusion in June

HD Hyundai Marine Solution  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. </li>
<li>We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week,  and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs. </li>
<li>On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. 
We review the the share price performances over different time periods (1 day, 1 week,  and 1 month). We also analyze the demand ratios and lock-up periods of the IPOs. 
On average, 12.7% of the IPO shares are under lockup periods for the 13 companies listed below. HD Hyundai Marine Solution IPO has 45.8% of shares under lock-up.


A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The reshuffle results align with expectations, but the decision to list 11 KOSDAQ Global stocks in April is surprising. Local authorities seem to prioritize boosting the derivatives market for liquidity.</li>
<li>Ecopro Materials' SSF listing, earlier than expected, attracts attention, potentially leading to an unusual basis pattern, coinciding with a major lockup release on May 17th.</li>
<li>We should also be wary of a pattern akin to last July's in KOSDAQ stocks. Spot prices of recent SSFs showed a pronounced short-term uptrend, especially in KOSDAQ, versus KOSPI.</li>
</ul>


The reshuffle results align with expectations, but the decision to list 11 KOSDAQ Global stocks in April is surprising. Local authorities seem to prioritize boosting the derivatives market for liquidity.
Ecopro Materials' SSF listing, earlier than expected, attracts attention, potentially leading to an unusual basis pattern, coinciding with a major lockup release on May 17th.
We should also be wary of a pattern akin to last July's in KOSDAQ stocks. Spot prices of recent SSFs showed a pronounced short-term uptrend, especially in KOSDAQ, versus KOSPI.


KRX's Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations

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EcoPro Materials (450080 KS)

Shift Up IPO Valuation Analysis

The first day of book building for the Shift Up IPO started on Monday and it looks excellent. Many institutional investors placed orders at prices...

Douglas Kim

ECM Weekly (20th May 2024) -Lalatech, Go Digit, Aadhar, TBO Tek, Ecopro, Nexus, Modec, Hyundai Heavy

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS): Nearing KOSPI200 Index Inclusion in June

A 96.5% rally on listing day as retail and foreign investors sold and domestic instis bought. The stock is now ~11% away from KOSPI200 inclusion in...

Brian Freitas

A Review of Post IPO Price Performance of Top 13 IPOs in Korea Past 8 Months

In this insight, we review the share price performances of the top 13 IPOs (in terms of market cap) in Korea in the past 8 months. We also analyze...

Douglas Kim

KRX's Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations

As pointed out in this post, considering KOSDAQ additions as a long basket is suitable. However, stocks with high pre-reshuffle price appreciation...

Sanghyun Park

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