TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Three things caught our eye this first week of 2021: eBay, Amazon, and the spectrum auction.</p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Three things caught our eye this first week of 2021: eBay, Amazon, and the spectrum auction.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 1/8/2021

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Poshmark’s business model appears to be well positioned to benefit from the trends towards online shopping, social and second-hand purchases. We do, however, have concerns about the company’s ability to break out of this niche to expand its TAM, particularly when its take rate is higher than peers.</p>

Poshmark’s business model appears to be well positioned to benefit from the trends towards online shopping, social and second-hand purchases. We do, however, have concerns about the company’s ability to break out of this niche to expand its TAM, particularly when its take rate is higher than peers.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

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<p><strong>Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied EV of $12.3 billion, implied market cap of $14.4 billion, and implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $24 per share. Given such a low upside, we would pass on this IPO.</strong></p>
<p><strong>One of the long-term concerns we have about Wish is the fact that the number one priority of the company is price. This is a double-edged sword.</strong> By focusing on price as the number one priority, the company has been able to gain a tremendous number of customers that put price as their number one importance. Nonetheless, it may be difficult for the company to generate relatively high profit margins in the long run since Wish may have difficulties in gaining customers that value quality over price when purchasing products through mobile or online platforms.</p>
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Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied EV of $12.3 billion, implied market cap of $14.4 billion, and implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $24 per share. Given such a low upside, we would pass on this IPO.
One of the long-term concerns we have about Wish is the fact that the number one priority of the company is price. This is a double-edged sword. By focusing on price as the number one priority, the company has been able to gain a tremendous number of customers that put price as their number one importance. Nonetheless, it may be difficult for the company to generate relatively high profit margins in the long run since Wish may have difficulties in gaining customers that value quality over price when purchasing products through mobile or online platforms.


Wish IPO Valuation Analysis: Focus on Price Is a Double-Edged Sword

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<div>While the details are scarce, local press is reporting that SKT and AMZN has been in talks for more than a year and would allow really an export/import biz on both of their channels (ie Korean products to be bought by US consumers and US products to be bought thru 11th St (SK's ecommerce portal) for Koreans. </div><div></div><div>This can't be good for the ecommerce players in Korea.  In the US, if you hear that AMZN is coming in whatever business, the whole sector falls.   Is Naver next? </div>

While the details are scarce, local press is reporting that SKT and AMZN has been in talks for more than a year and would allow really an export/import biz on both of their channels (ie Korean products to be bought by US consumers and US products to be bought thru 11th St (SK's ecommerce portal) for Koreans. This can't be good for the ecommerce players in Korea.  In the US, if you hear that AMZN is coming in whatever business, the whole sector falls.   Is Naver next? 

AMZN into Korea - "We Are Not Here to Take Part, We're Here to Take Over!"

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a> has managed to grow rapidly during the pandemic and make a much improved profit at the same time. The business remains small compared to supermarkets, but has a unique position as the only pureplay retailer for fresh foods. This has attracted new partners, the latest of which are Ootoya and Ebay's Qoo10.</p>
<p>Given current momentum to buy food online, even if competitors are also expanding, Oisix has now updated its forecasts, expecting sales to hit ¥90 billion, a 15.4% increase with operating profit coming in at ¥5 billion.</p>

Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) has managed to grow rapidly during the pandemic and make a much improved profit at the same time. The business remains small compared to supermarkets, but has a unique position as the only pureplay retailer for fresh foods. This has attracted new partners, the latest of which are Ootoya and Ebay's Qoo10.
Given current momentum to buy food online, even if competitors are also expanding, Oisix has now updated its forecasts, expecting sales to hit ¥90 billion, a 15.4% increase with operating profit coming in at ¥5 billion.

Oisix Thrives in Crisis, Ties with Ootoya

United States

eBay Inc. operates an online trading community.  The Company's service is used by buyers and sellers for the exchange of products and services such as coins, collectibles, computers, memorabilia, stamps and toys, as well as concert and sporting tickets.  eBay also offers, through a subsidiary, secure online payment services.

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Ebay Inc (EBAY US)

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 1/8/2021

This week we highlight eBay's new tool to drive online advertising adoption, Amazon's further foray into logistics, and the $90B spent in the...

Aaron Gabin

Poshmark - Second-Hand Fashion

Poshmark’s leverage into online shopping, social and second-hand purchases are attractive, but will it be able to break out of its niche to expand...

Mio Kato

Wish IPO Valuation Analysis: Focus on Price Is a Double-Edged Sword

Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

AMZN into Korea - "We Are Not Here to Take Part, We're Here to Take Over!"

I guess the Koreans aren't scared of Amazon's entry into the ecommerce space! I'm a seller of Naver here on the news that Amazon will come into...

Ken S. Kim

Oisix Thrives in Crisis, Ties with Ootoya

Oisix Ra Daichi is a quality brand in a nascent market: online food retailing where e-commerce has less than 3% share. It is a huge prize and...

Michael Causton

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