Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect up to 12 index changes over the next few days <em>including an intra-review change!</em>
</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
Based on the latest available data, I expect up to 12 index changes over the next few days including an intra-review change!



Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.</li>
<li>There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lxi-reit-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40684:1" rel="noopener">LXI REIT (LXI LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/network-international-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28918:1" rel="noopener">Network International Holdings (NETW LN)</a> </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
I see one change for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index. There could be more as there are many names close to the border.
There are also a couple of potential intra-review changes expected in the next few weeks for LXI REIT (LXI LN) and Network International Holdings (NETW LN) 


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the March 2024 index rebal event.
Based on the latest available data, I expect there to be up to seven index changes in the first quarter of 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Although I do not see any regular ADDs/DELs for the March 2024 rebalance, there might be one or two intra-review changes during the first quarter of 2024. </li>
<li>These intra-review changes will be triggered by the completion of M&amp;A events and it is important to know which names are leading the race to become intra-review ADDs.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the March 2024 index rebal event.
Although I do not see any regular ADDs/DELs for the March 2024 rebalance, there might be one or two intra-review changes during the first quarter of 2024. 
These intra-review changes will be triggered by the completion of M&amp;A events and it is important to know which names are leading the race to become intra-review ADDs.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: Intra-Review Replacements for NETW and LXI REIT

United Kingdom

Dart Group plc, an aviation services and distribution group, operates cargo and passenger aircraft on charter contracts and scheduled low cost services throughout Europe.  The Group also distributes fresh produce and temperature controlled products to supermarkets and wholesale markets throughout the United Kingdom.  Dart conducts freight forwarding services from various airports.

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port PJSC owns and operates the Novorossiysk Port on the BlackSea. The Company processes, loads, and unloads cargo. Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Trade Port handles mainly crude oil but also services dry cargo such as metals, cement, sugar, grain and containers.

Clarkson PLC provides integrated shipping services, The Company provides shipbroking, ship management, financial services, fund management and property services.  Clarkson operates throughout the world.

Stolt-Nielsen Ltd. is a global company with significant operations within various maritime related industries. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides integrated transportation services for bulk liquid chemicals, edible oil, and other specialty liquids.

Gama Aviation Plc provides business aviation services. The company offers aircraft management services for aircraft owners, such as fuel and insurance, crew, and maintenance services; aircraft chartering services; aero-medical services; and contract air services. It also provides phased or base maintenance, line maintenance, and design and modifications services; fixed base operations comprising parking, hangarage, and fueling, of aircraft and the processing of passengers; rotary maintenance, general aviation maintenance, aviation engineering design, avionics upgrades, and flight training services; and Airops software for third party FBO and flight management departments. It has operations in Europe, Asia, North America, and the Middle East. Gama Aviation Plc was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Farnborough, the United Kingdom.

FirstGroup plc is an international passenger group which has bus and rail operations in the United Kingdom and North America.  The Group's operations comprise bus and passenger rail franchises, in addition to transit management, school bus operations, and fleet maintenance.

Northgate PLC is a light commercial vehicle rental business operating in the United Kingdom and Spain. The Company's core business is flexible vehicle rentals.  Northgate also sells former rental vehicles to both retail and trade customers.

Wincanton plc provides a variety of consumer and industrial logistics services. The Group's business consists of the operation, design and procurement of automated warehouses and storage systems.  Wincanton also provides fleet management services, which encompass the planning, operation and maintenance of customer distribution networks and vehicle fleets.

Mobico Group PLC operates as a passenger transportation company. The Company offers shared mobility solutions to cities, businesses, education, healthcare, and customers. Mobico Group conducts its business worldwide.

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

China Airlines Limited provides scheduled international air transportation for passengers and cargo freight throughout cities in Europe, America, Asia, and Australia.

SkyWest, Inc. operates regional airlines that offer scheduled passenger service to destinations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean.

Hanjin KAL Corporation is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in airline, hotel, and travel related services. Hanjin also invests in real estates.

Alaska Air Group, Inc. is an airline holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides air service to passengers in multiple destinations. Alaska Air also provide freight and mail services, primarily to and within the state of Alaska and on the West Coast.

EVA Airways Corp. is an air carrier that transports passengers and cargos. The Company operates primarily in Taiwan and serves international route networks in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australasia.

Air Canada provides domestic and international carrier service. The Company provides scheduled and charter air transportation for passengers and cargo. AirCanada services Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the Caribbean.

Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi AS offers scheduled air passenger transportation services. The Company offers air transport services within Turkey and between Turkey and other European destinations.

Juneyao Airlines Co. Ltd. supplies air transportation services. The Company provides domestic and international routes for passengers and cargoes. Juneyao Airlines also offers ticket home delivery and electronic ticketing services.

Cathay Pacific Airways Limited operates scheduled airline services. The Company also provides related services, including airline catering, aircraft handling, and engineering.

easyJet plc, a low-cost passenger airline, conducts operations throughout the United Kingdom and mainland Europe.  The Company sells the majority of its tickets through its Web site.

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easyJet PLC (EZJ LN)

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

LXI REIT's intra-review deletion and the replacement name could be confirmed over the next few days. Separately, I see 11 ADDs/DELs during the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

There could be two slots for intra-review replacements in March 2024. Currently, Alfa Financial Software (ALFA LN) and Brunner Investment Trust...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

SE600 members CHR Hansen and LXI REIT could get deleted in the first quarter of 2024. Apart from that, I see five more possible index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: Intra-Review Replacements for NETW and LXI REIT

F250 members Network International Holdings and LXI REIT could get deleted from the F250 index in 1Q 2024. The F250 potential ADDs leading the race...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: 12 Changes Possible in the Next Few Days

LXI REIT's intra-review deletion and the replacement name could be confirmed over the next few days. Separately, I see 11 ADDs/DELs during the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

There could be two slots for intra-review replacements in March 2024. Currently, Alfa Financial Software (ALFA LN) and Brunner Investment Trust...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Mar 24: Two Intra-Review and 5 Regular Changes Likely

SE600 members CHR Hansen and LXI REIT could get deleted in the first quarter of 2024. Apart from that, I see five more possible index changes...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Mar 24: Intra-Review Replacements for NETW and LXI REIT

F250 members Network International Holdings and LXI REIT could get deleted from the F250 index in 1Q 2024. The F250 potential ADDs leading the race...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: One More Day to Base Date. Lots of Possibilities!

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Mar 24: Intra-Review Replacements for NETW and LXI REIT