Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap</li>
<li>4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.</li>
</ul>


While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500
Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The conversation revolves around the significant energy consumption of AI data centers and the potential consequences of this trend</li><li>Tech companies are facing the challenge of balancing their energy needs with their sustainability commitments</li><li>Brian Janus, a former energy hire at Microsoft and now co-founder of Cloverleaf Infrastructure, provides insight into this issue and potential solutions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The conversation revolves around the significant energy consumption of AI data centers and the potential consequences of this trendTech companies are facing the challenge of balancing their energy needs with their sustainability commitmentsBrian Janus, a former energy hire at Microsoft and now co-founder of Cloverleaf Infrastructure, provides insight into this issue and potential solutionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

How Electric Utilities Will Handle Booming AI Datacenter Demand

<ul>
<li>Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.</li>
<li>This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.</li>
<li>Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).</li>
</ul>


Indexes continue to violate our key supports as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&amp;P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109.
This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair.
Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom, and it is possible that was yesterday (Jan. 24).


U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

Charts Highlighted: XLE, RYE, WTI Crude Oil, XLF, XLB, XLI, RCD, EEM, XLU, XLP, AWK, AEE, WMT, PEP, NUE, STLD, X, CMC, SMSMY, SCHN, RYI, TMST, MT, TX, MTL, ETR, FTS, CMS, CNP, LNT, NI, OGE, BKH, NEE, DUK, SO, and AEPCyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/penn-national-gaming-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5588:1" rel="noopener">Penn National Gaming (PENN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generac-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16223:1" rel="noopener">Generac Holdings (GNRC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caesars-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15532:1" rel="noopener">Caesars Entertainment (CZR US)</a>. To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowserve-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20555:1" rel="noopener">Flowserve Corp (FLS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-green-realty-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1548:1" rel="noopener">Sl Green Realty (SLG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xerox-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17585:1" rel="noopener">Xerox Corp (XRX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vontier-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28857:1" rel="noopener">Vontier Corp (VNT US)</a>.We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nxp-semiconductors-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9801:1" rel="noopener">Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US)</a> where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

On Friday post market close, S&amp;P Dow Jones announced the results of the March review for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) that will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.There are 4 additions - Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US), Penn National Gaming (PENN US), Generac Holdings (GNRC US) and Caesars Entertainment (CZR US). To balance that out, there are 4 deletions - Flowserve Corp (FLS US), Sl Green Realty (SLG US), Xerox Corp (XRX US) and Vontier Corp (VNT US).We estimate one-way turnover will be around US$22.4bn and the funding trade will see selling on a lot of the current index constituents.The biggest impact of the changes will be on Nxp Semiconductors Nv (NXPI US) where we estimate passive funds will need to buy around 11 days of ADV on the stock. The impact on the other stocks is much lower due to the move between the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) and the S&amp;P Mid Cap 400 indices.

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

United States

Duke Energy Corporation is an energy company located primarily in the Americas that owns an integrated network of energy assets.  The Company manages a portfolio of natural gas and electric supply, delivery, and trading businesses in the United States and Latin America.

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Duke Energy (DUK US)

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shift Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Tech to market weight $XLK; Upgrading Industrials $XLI to Overweight; Upgrading Utilities $XLU to...

Vermilion Research

How Electric Utilities Will Handle Booming AI Datacenter Demand

The Odd Lots podcast delves into the issue of energy consumption in AI data centers and the potential impact on the environment, with guest speaker...

Odd Lots

U.S. Equity Strategy: Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading and Buying Utilities

Indexes continue to violate our key supports on the Russell 2000 (IWM), the S&P 500, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW). Most opportunities...

Vermilion Research

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buying Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Steel Stocks

Cyclical value areas are improving, but so are defensives. In order to get more bullish, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield break above...

Vermilion Research

S&P500 Index Rebalance: NXPI Is the One to Watch

There are 4 changes to the S&P500 with NXP Semiconductors the largest beneficiary of the changes. Estimated one-way turnover is US$22.4bn and there...

Brian Freitas

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