Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Trump's idea that "trade wars are easy to win" is true only in one narrow sense: the US, having the economy with the largest trade deficit, has substantially greater negotiating clout if it chooses to use it, especially as its trading partners are substantially more trade-dependent. With the economy strong, the US is willing to use that bargaining power: by upping the ante on tariffs to US$200bn of imports from China (more than China imports from the US annually), Trump is demonstrating that…

Trump's idea that "trade wars are easy to win" is true only in one narrow sense: the US, having the economy with the largest trade deficit, has substantially greater negotiating clout if it chooses to use it, especially as its trading partners are substantially more trade-dependent. With the economy strong, the US is willing to use that bargaining power: by upping the ante on tariffs to US$200bn of imports from China (more than China imports from the US annually), Trump is demonstrating that…

Trump's Upside-Down Trade Policy Wrecks Alliances & Makes US "Adversaries" Smile, but He Has a Point

Amareos

Ryan Shea

In price terms US equities are in no man’s land with the late January high and the early February low both remaining untested. On the face of it the bearish case is solid. Global trade war concerns refuse to go away, geopolitical tensions are still elevated, and even though investors have celebrated the fact that Italy has finally got a new government, the “tweaked” coalition is still much more Euro sceptic than previous administrations leading many (including us) to think that another…

In price terms US equities are in no man’s land with the late January high and the early February low both remaining untested. On the face of it the bearish case is solid. Global trade war concerns refuse to go away, geopolitical tensions are still elevated, and even though investors have celebrated the fact that Italy has finally got a new government, the “tweaked” coalition is still much more Euro sceptic than previous administrations leading many (including us) to think that another…

The Market Sentimentalist - No Man's Land (Thoughts on US Equities)

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

The final rally of this bull market is under way.  That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&amp;P 500, and its recent break up through 2,718.  Its final target range is 2,872-3,148.  The lack of new index extremes over the past month mean that there are no new indicator signals of note, but the likelihood of new highs is at least consistent with our case that the Q1 extreme momentum marked the end of a buying climax.  The extreme Trend Strength readings at the time suggested we were seeing a mirror image of 2008, and an “upward crash”.  Just as the extreme momentum of 2008 was a precursor to new lows in 2009, so new highs would be normal now.  We remain at Hold, and traders could even buy on a dip to 2,645-2,655, but 2,585 closing is now the stop on that view.  Below there we would turn extremely bearish, looking for an extended decline to the 2016 low at 1,810 into 2019/2020.  Hopefully, we will get to make that call higher up.

S&P 500:  Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/048/809/original/CP%20header.jpg?1522726555" data-smartkarma-image-id="48809"></figure>S&amp;P roll points<div style="text-align: left;">Our base case from S&amp;P 2,800 revolved around a C wave decline to break the early February lows with a pivot level at S&amp;P 2,590. We outline our matrix variables from the near term bull bond pattern to the VIX bull wedge that supports further weakness in the S&amp;P along with S&amp;P and DJI fresh pivot support breaks and the near term fade resistance to pay close attention to</div><div style="text-align: left;">Re breaking below 2,526 pivot was the trigger to add back to short exposure. We opted to add to our NDX short.</div><div style="text-align: left;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/048/810/original/SPX%20D%20HOURLY%20NEW%20FOR%20SK.png?1522726597" data-smartkarma-image-id="48810"></figure>S&amp;P -…
</div>

S&amp;P roll pointsOur base case from S&amp;P 2,800 revolved around a C wave decline to break the early February lows with a pivot level at S&amp;P 2,590. We outline our matrix variables from the near term bull bond pattern to the VIX bull wedge that supports further weakness in the S&amp;P along with S&amp;P and DJI fresh pivot support breaks and the near term fade resistance to pay close attention toRe breaking below 2,526 pivot was the trigger to add back to short exposure. We opted to add to our NDX short.
S&amp;P -…


Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

We spend a good deal of time pouring over patterns in the S&amp;P and top sectors but tend to not view the Dow Jones as a primary driver but rather a counter measure confirmation signal to the S&amp;P. We now have a high conviction pattern with well defined breakout in the DJI to work with post going into and out of the FOMC. The market interpretation of the FOMC statement with shape the bias and force a breakout of the DJI pattern that has been contracting.NDX and S&amp;P charts illustrate the relative…

We spend a good deal of time pouring over patterns in the S&amp;P and top sectors but tend to not view the Dow Jones as a primary driver but rather a counter measure confirmation signal to the S&amp;P. We now have a high conviction pattern with well defined breakout in the DJI to work with post going into and out of the FOMC. The market interpretation of the FOMC statement with shape the bias and force a breakout of the DJI pattern that has been contracting.NDX and S&amp;P charts illustrate the relative…

This Index Will Make or Break the Global Cycle Post FOMC

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Trump's Upside-Down Trade Policy Wrecks Alliances & Makes US "Adversaries" Smile, but He Has a Point

Trump's idea that "trade wars are easy to win" is true only in one narrow sense: the US, having the economy with the largest trade deficit, has...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Market Sentimentalist - No Man's Land (Thoughts on US Equities)

In price terms US equities are in no man’s land with the late January high and the early February low both remaining untested. On the face of it...

Amareos

S&P 500: Heading for a Final High at 2,872-3,148

The final rally of this bull market is under way. That has been signalled by the appearance of the three-month Triangle in the S&P 500, and...

Peter Beuttell

S&P Trap Door Support Break

S&P roll pointsOur base case from S&P 2,800 revolved around a C wave decline to break the early February lows with a pivot level at S&P...

Thomas Schroeder

This Index Will Make or Break the Global Cycle Post FOMC

We spend a good deal of time pouring over patterns in the S&P and top sectors but tend to not view the Dow Jones as a primary driver but rather...

Thomas Schroeder