New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>At its ASM, Turners Automotive (TRA) guided to a record first-half performance for 1H25, implying profit before tax (PBT) will be greater than the NZ$25.7m it reported in 1H24.</li><li>TRA continues to execute admirably against a challenging economic and industry backdrop.</li><li>Sales volumes in the Auto Retail division are tracking ahead of FY24, in line with data from our sales tracker, suggesting continued market share gains (industry sales from April to July 2024 were -6% behind the same period in 2023). </li></ul>

At its ASM, Turners Automotive (TRA) guided to a record first-half performance for 1H25, implying profit before tax (PBT) will be greater than the NZ$25.7m it reported in 1H24.TRA continues to execute admirably against a challenging economic and industry backdrop.Sales volumes in the Auto Retail division are tracking ahead of FY24, in line with data from our sales tracker, suggesting continued market share gains (industry sales from April to July 2024 were -6% behind the same period in 2023). 

Turners Automotive Group Ltd - On Pole for a Record 1H25

<ul><li>We initiate full coverage of Turners Automotive Group (TRA) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$5.30.</li><li>TRA is a high quality operator which has gained market share and grown earnings through the interest rate cycle.</li><li>We see a clear pathway to further earnings growth driven by (1) footprint expansion from new branches, (2) margin recovery and book growth in its Finance segment as the OCR falls and (3) further sales channel optimisation in its Auto Retail segment. </li></ul>

We initiate full coverage of Turners Automotive Group (TRA) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$5.30.TRA is a high quality operator which has gained market share and grown earnings through the interest rate cycle.We see a clear pathway to further earnings growth driven by (1) footprint expansion from new branches, (2) margin recovery and book growth in its Finance segment as the OCR falls and (3) further sales channel optimisation in its Auto Retail segment. 

Turners Automotive Group Ltd - No Need to Shift Gears, Growth on Track

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div id="m_-4491327355502150754iubdj"><ul><li>The September 2024 quarter was an improved period for New Zealand's vehicle market.</li><li>New vehicle sales rose +16% from a low base and used car sales were broadly flat versus the comparable period in 2023.</li><li>Nevertheless, conditions are still challenging for industry participants. </li></ul></div>

The September 2024 quarter was an improved period for New Zealand's vehicle market.New vehicle sales rose +16% from a low base and used car sales were broadly flat versus the comparable period in 2023.Nevertheless, conditions are still challenging for industry participants. 

Forsyth Barr EV and Vehicle Digest - Edition 6 — Trying to Turn the Corner

<div id="m_3223007619533098753iubdj"><ul><li>New car sales, typically a barometer of economic activity, have fallen to anaemic levels in New Zealand as consumers feel the pain from cost inflation and high interest rates.</li><li>Used car sales have also been muted, although the second-hand market has generally been more resilient due to trading-down trends.</li><li>The outlook for the industry may finally be improving, with the RBNZ signalling rate cuts are on the horizon. </li></ul></div>

New car sales, typically a barometer of economic activity, have fallen to anaemic levels in New Zealand as consumers feel the pain from cost inflation and high interest rates.Used car sales have also been muted, although the second-hand market has generally been more resilient due to trading-down trends.The outlook for the industry may finally be improving, with the RBNZ signalling rate cuts are on the horizon. 

Forsyth Barr EV and Vehicle Digest Edition 5 — The Cycle Continues

<ul><li>Government policy changes have led to significant volatility in the types and volumes of vehicles imported recently.</li><li>New car registrations in NZ have remained subdued, falling by -20% in 1Q24, as high interest rates, more conservative lending policies, changes to EV subsidies, and increased household costs have dampened consumer demand.</li><li>However, 1Q24 saw total used car transactions begin to recover, showing a +1% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. </li></ul>

Government policy changes have led to significant volatility in the types and volumes of vehicles imported recently.New car registrations in NZ have remained subdued, falling by -20% in 1Q24, as high interest rates, more conservative lending policies, changes to EV subsidies, and increased household costs have dampened consumer demand.However, 1Q24 saw total used car transactions begin to recover, showing a +1% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. 

New Zealand

Turners Limited specialized personal insurance. The Company provides motor vehicle and personal financial services, and hire purchase services and investment advisory services to businesses.  Dorchester also provides immigration consultancy services assisting business migrants and families.

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Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)

Turners Automotive Group Ltd - On Pole for a Record 1H25

At its ASM, Turners Automotive (TRA) guided to a record first-half performance for 1H25, implying profit before tax (PBT) will be greater than the...

Forsyth Barr

Turners Automotive Group Ltd - No Need to Shift Gears, Growth on Track

We initiate full coverage of Turners Automotive Group (TRA) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$5.30.

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr EV and Vehicle Digest - Edition 6 — Trying to Turn the Corner

New vehicle sales rose +16% from a low base and used car sales were broadly flat versus the comparable period in 2023. Nevertheless, conditions are...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr EV and Vehicle Digest Edition 5 — The Cycle Continues

New car sales, typically a barometer of economic activity, have fallen to anaemic levels in New Zealand as consumers feel the pain from cost...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr EV and Vehicle Digest

Government policy changes have led to significant volatility in the types and volumes of vehicles imported recently. New car registrations in NZ...

Forsyth Barr

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