Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.</li>
<li>If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


Many indexes (ACWI-US,ACWX-US,etc.) are near support, and we could see a bear market bounce, but until these indexes reverse their downtrends and break above resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
On a positive note, we are starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially, and the Energy/Materials Sectors are under significant pressure.
If inflation and commodity prices have indeed peaked, global equities are likely in the early stages of a bottoming process.


Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).</li>
<li>More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.</li>
<li>We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.</li>
</ul>


Indexes have plunged since violating our "lines-in-the-sand" of 3875 on EURO STOXX 50, 14,815 on the DAX, $54 on ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI(ACWI-US).
More recently, Japan’s TOPIX broke below the key 1840 level, as the number of countries breaking down increases.
We remain bearish at the index level as long as these indexes continue to make lower highs, and we expect that any bottoming process would take weeks/months to develop.


Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

<ul>
<li>The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.</li>
<li>Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.</li>
</ul>


The broad global indexes are decisively below our "lines in the sand" of $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), $75.25 on MSCI EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
As noted in our Feb. 15 Int'l Macro Vision, we are bearish at the index level as long as we are below the aforementioned levels.
Global 10-year sovereign yields remain elevated, leading to outperformance from value Sectors (Energy/Materials/Financials) which remain our preferred area of the market. We also continue to like defensive areas, especially Staples.


Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US)</a> is the leading variety retailer of lifestyle products globally with an aggregate GMV of RMB 19.0 billion (US$2.7 billion) and revenue of RMB 9.0 billion (US$1.3 billion).
Last week, the company filed an updated prospectus with the SEC announcing the price range for the NYSE IPO. The price range was set at $16.50-$18.50 per ADS, which translates to $4.125-$4.625 per share.
MINISO plans to raise $502m-$562m via issuing 16.5m new ADS (122m-140m new shares). An overallotment option, if exercised, could increase the IPO by $75m-$84m (4.6m new ADS).
Previously, we discussed MINISO's business model and financials in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-ipo-long-term-growth-prospects-secured-by-a-sustainable-competitive-advantage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO IPO: Long Term Growth Prospects Secured By a Sustainable Competitive Advantage</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/miniso-ipo-as-appealing-as-miniso-products" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO IPO: As Appealing As MINISO Products</a>.
This insight will focus on valuation and assess if it is worthwhile subscribing to the IPO.

MINISO Group Holdings (MNSO US) is the leading variety retailer of lifestyle products globally with an aggregate GMV of RMB 19.0 billion (US$2.7 billion) and revenue of RMB 9.0 billion (US$1.3 billion).
Last week, the company filed an updated prospectus with the SEC announcing the price range for the NYSE IPO. The price range was set at $16.50-$18.50 per ADS, which translates to $4.125-$4.625 per share.
MINISO plans to raise $502m-$562m via issuing 16.5m new ADS (122m-140m new shares). An overallotment option, if exercised, could increase the IPO by $75m-$84m (4.6m new ADS).
Previously, we discussed MINISO's business model and financials in MINISO IPO: Long Term Growth Prospects Secured By a Sustainable Competitive Advantage and MINISO IPO: As Appealing As MINISO Products.
This insight will focus on valuation and assess if it is worthwhile subscribing to the IPO.

MINISO Valuation: Valued Like MINISO Merchandise - Bang for the Buck

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Duopolies are generally good for profits in an industry. However, a central aspect of a duopolistic framework is market equilibrium. If China is headed to a duopoly in the food delivery and lifestyle services sector, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26970" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a> will have to cede ground to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a>, before the two can regain pricing power to maximise the opportunity. With MD twice the size of BABA, and BABA signalling its intent to gain its fair share of half the serviceable market, investors in MD are advised to be optimistic but cautious. In ANTYA’s view, going forward, MD will willingly give up ground to BABA to conserve cash and grow responsibly.  The days of growth at all cost are over, and therefore MD's valuation will correct.

Duopolies are generally good for profits in an industry. However, a central aspect of a duopolistic framework is market equilibrium. If China is headed to a duopoly in the food delivery and lifestyle services sector, then Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) will have to cede ground to Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US), before the two can regain pricing power to maximise the opportunity. With MD twice the size of BABA, and BABA signalling its intent to gain its fair share of half the serviceable market, investors in MD are advised to be optimistic but cautious. In ANTYA’s view, going forward, MD will willingly give up ground to BABA to conserve cash and grow responsibly.  The days of growth at all cost are over, and therefore MD's valuation will correct.

Canada

Dollarama Inc. operates as an online marketplace. The Company offers cleaning, school, office, home, kitchen, food, health, beauty, hardware, electronics, toys, and pets products, as well as provides delivery services. Dollarama serves customers in Canada.

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Dollarama (DOL CN)

Inflation Peaking?; ACWI, ACWI Ex-US Near Support; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

We're starting to see signs that inflation is peaking, as commodity prices have pulled back substantially or are breaking, and the Energy $XLE and...

Vermilion Research

Monitoring For A Bottom; Focus On Defensives

Defensive Sectors including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities are emerging as leadership -- add exposure. Today we are focusing on...

Vermilion Research

Buying Metals/Mining and Consumer Staples

Commodity prices remain in a secular bull market, and now even gold is joining the rally. This is bullish for global metals/mining stocks (precious...

Vermilion Research

MINISO Valuation: Valued Like MINISO Merchandise - Bang for the Buck

MINISO Group Holdings is the leading variety retailer of lifestyle products globally with an aggregate GMV of RMB 19.0 billion (US$2.7 billion) and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Meituan Dianping– As Good As It Gets?

Duopolies are generally good for profits in an industry. However, a central aspect of a duopolistic framework is market equilibrium. If China is...

ANTYA Investments

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