External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~13.1% YoY in Q4FY24 (ex-jewellery: ~12%)</li><li>Q4 is likely to be the last quarter contending with a high base</li><li>Wedding season hasn’t been as upbeat as expected</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~13.1% YoY in Q4FY24 (ex-jewellery: ~12%)Q4 is likely to be the last quarter contending with a high baseWedding season hasn’t been as upbeat as expectedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary - Soft Quarter, Green Shoots Visible in Value Fashion

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.</li>
<li>Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.
This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.
Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

<ul>
<li>There are five changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 27 March. Changes are on expected lines.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> is 10.1% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 22.2bn (US$268m).</li>
<li>Apart from the impact on the adds and deletes, there will be a big impact on some of the non-F&amp;O stocks due to capping and funding flows.</li>
</ul>


There are five changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 27 March. Changes are on expected lines.
Estimated one-way turnover for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) is 10.1% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 22.2bn (US$268m).
Apart from the impact on the adds and deletes, there will be a big impact on some of the non-F&amp;O stocks due to capping and funding flows.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes on Expected Lines; Big Turnover

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/upl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20776:1" rel="noopener">UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 27 March. This was a high probability change.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN)</a> missed out on inclusion and that results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> staying in the index.</li>
<li>There is over 11 days of delivery volume to trade in the add and delete and there appears to be significant positioning in one of the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Shriram Finance (SHFL IN) will replace UPL Ltd (UPLL IN) in the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the close of trading on 27 March. This was a high probability change.

Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) missed out on inclusion and that results in Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) staying in the index.
There is over 11 days of delivery volume to trade in the add and delete and there appears to be significant positioning in one of the stocks.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Shriram Finance to Replace UPL

India

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

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Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)

Consumer Discretionary - Soft Quarter, Green Shoots Visible in Value Fashion

Our discretionary universe is expected to grow by ~13.1% YoY in Q4FY24 (ex-jewellery: ~12%). Q4 is likely to be the last quarter contending with a...

HDFC Securities

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes on Expected Lines; Big Turnover

There are 5 changes for the NIFTY NEXT50 in March. The changes were forecast and there will be positioning. There are capping changes for non-FnO...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance: Shriram Finance to Replace UPL

Shriram Finance replaces UPLL in the NIFTY at the close on 27 March. Trent misses out on inclusion and that saves BPCL. There is over 11 days of...

Brian Freitas

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