Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes to the Nikkei 225 Average for the March 2024 Review were announced today after the close. A little earlier than I expected. </li>
<li>Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; Takara Hldgs, Sumi Osaka Cement, Pacific Metals OUT. Nitori PAF increase. US$4bn+ to trade one way on 29Mar close. One interesting surprise. </li>
<li>Overall more impactful than it looks. And it changes the front-end arithmetic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There may be fun on the DELETEs.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 Average for the March 2024 Review were announced today after the close. A little earlier than I expected. 
Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; Takara Hldgs, Sumi Osaka Cement, Pacific Metals OUT. Nitori PAF increase. US$4bn+ to trade one way on 29Mar close. One interesting surprise. 
Overall more impactful than it looks. And it changes the front-end arithmetic on Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There may be fun on the DELETEs.


Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 1.3-19x ADV (7.1-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-47x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> avoids capping in March, passives will buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a>, and 25 stocks have over 0.5x ADV to sell as part of the funding trade.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 1.3-19x ADV (7.1-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-47x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) avoids capping in March, passives will buy Nitori Holdings (9843 JP), and 25 stocks have over 0.5x ADV to sell as part of the funding trade.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Fast Retailing

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO Corp (6146 JP)</a> to buy.</li>
<li>It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.</li>
<li>I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data for the March 2024 rebalance is a wrap. The names are the same as before but there is likely less DISCO Corp (6146 JP) to buy.
It's still big, but smaller than before because of the difference between performance and the change in PAF required to be below 1%. A 4:1 share split would be optimal.
I recommend a few positioning changes from before, and the Fast Retailing trade loses one short-term option but the longer-term one stays in place.


FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.</li>
<li>However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.</li>
</ul>



SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.
However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.


Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

Japan

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

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DISCO Corp (6146 JP)

Mar24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Socionext, Disco, Zozo IN; US$4bn One-Way; More Impactful Than It Looks

The Nikkei 225 Rebalance for March 2024 is out. It is basically as expected. I had thought maybe Ryohin Keikaku would go in rather than Zozo. I'd...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Fast Retailing

The stocks have moved a fair bit in the last couple of weeks. The expected deletes are getting sold while the potential adds have moved higher. The...

Brian Freitas

FINAL PREDICTIONS: March 2024 Nikkei 225 Rebal (Socionext, Disco, and 1 Consumer Goods Stock to ADD)

The announcement will come out in <3 weeks. Since I published, we have an update that Yanai-san sold Fast Retailing shares, Nitori jumped 8% on...

Travis Lundy

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Screen Holdings being added to passive portfolios at the end of Feb. Positioning in the stock is larger than...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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