Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China’s NPPA issued a list of 67 new games approved for July 2022, and once again, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>  and its smaller rival NetEase were excluded from the list.</li>
<li>The nine-month long freeze on new game approval was lifted in April, however, none of Tencent’s new games were included in the approved lists in April, June and July.</li>
<li>This further affirms our view that the anti-monopoly crackdown on tech firms hasn’t slowed down, but regulators are probing on dominant players such as Tencent to level the playing field.</li>
</ul>


China’s NPPA issued a list of 67 new games approved for July 2022, and once again, Tencent (700 HK)  and its smaller rival NetEase were excluded from the list.
The nine-month long freeze on new game approval was lifted in April, however, none of Tencent’s new games were included in the approved lists in April, June and July.
This further affirms our view that the anti-monopoly crackdown on tech firms hasn’t slowed down, but regulators are probing on dominant players such as Tencent to level the playing field.


Tencent – Excluded Again from New Game Approvals

<ul>
<li>On 10th July, SAMR published 28 administrative penalties for violating anti-monopoly law related to disclosing past transactions on firms including Tencent, Alibaba, Didi, Weibo and Bilibili.</li>
<li>A fine of RMB17.2m (US$2.56m) was imposed in total and were fined for not properly reporting past deals between March 2011 to July 2021.</li>
<li>The market has come to believe that the anti-monopoly investigation in China is easing off, however, the recent development suggests that the anti-monopoly normalisation will continue.</li>
</ul>


On 10th July, SAMR published 28 administrative penalties for violating anti-monopoly law related to disclosing past transactions on firms including Tencent, Alibaba, Didi, Weibo and Bilibili.
A fine of RMB17.2m (US$2.56m) was imposed in total and were fined for not properly reporting past deals between March 2011 to July 2021.
The market has come to believe that the anti-monopoly investigation in China is easing off, however, the recent development suggests that the anti-monopoly normalisation will continue.


Tencent Fined for Violating Disclosure on Past Transactions; Anti-Monopoly Probe Is Far From Over

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra will step down from Vision Fund 2 to take a new gig managing money for Midde Eastern partners. His VF1 role is unchanged for now</li>
<li>Structurally, this does not change very much as Son-san has always been the decision maker on investments and we never considered Misra as a candidate for succession</li>
<li>After surviving $47bn in public equity losses over the last year, it surprisingly looks like Misra's departure is voluntary</li>
</ul>


Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra will step down from Vision Fund 2 to take a new gig managing money for Midde Eastern partners. His VF1 role is unchanged for now
Structurally, this does not change very much as Son-san has always been the decision maker on investments and we never considered Misra as a candidate for succession
After surviving $47bn in public equity losses over the last year, it surprisingly looks like Misra's departure is voluntary


<ul>
<li>Vision Fund's public portfolio lost $10bn in Q1 marking the third time in four quarters that valuation losses were in the tens of billions</li>
<li>Global tech weaness remains the main challenge as portfolio losses are matched with concerns on the private portfolio, especially ARM</li>
<li>And worries about ARM also feed into leverage concerns as Softbank's QoQ decline in reported LTV was driven by an ARM upgrade.  Meanwhile, CDS prices are near all-time highs</li>
</ul>


Vision Fund's public portfolio lost $10bn in Q1 marking the third time in four quarters that valuation losses were in the tens of billions
Global tech weaness remains the main challenge as portfolio losses are matched with concerns on the private portfolio, especially ARM
And worries about ARM also feed into leverage concerns as Softbank's QoQ decline in reported LTV was driven by an ARM upgrade.  Meanwhile, CDS prices are near all-time highs


Softbank Group - First Look at Q1 22 Performance

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: How SoftBank wrestled back control of Arm China</li><li>Analysis: China's 'zero-Covid' policy is here to stay despite relaxing of quarantine rules</li><li>Charts of the Day: China’s trade deficit with Russia balloons</li></ul>

In Depth: How SoftBank wrestled back control of Arm ChinaAnalysis: China's 'zero-Covid' policy is here to stay despite relaxing of quarantine rulesCharts of the Day: China’s trade deficit with Russia balloons

CX Daily: How SoftBank Wrestled Back Control of Arm China

China

DiDi Chuxing Inc operates passenger transportation platforms. The Company provides mobility solutions, cloud computing, and other application based services. DiDi Chuxing serves customers worldwide.

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DiDi Global (DIDIY US)

Tencent – Excluded Again from New Game Approvals

Tencent, once again failed to make into the approved list of 67 new games for July 2022, nor in the last two batches of approved new game titles....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent Fined for Violating Disclosure on Past Transactions; Anti-Monopoly Probe Is Far From Over

Tencent was fined for failing to make timely disclosures regarding past deals. Though the fine is not significant given the size of Tencent, it is...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Softbank Group - Business as Usual

Vision Fund head Rajeev Misra is departing to run Middle Eastern money. Operationally, not much changes as Son-san has always been the Softbank...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Group - First Look at Q1 22 Performance

Public valuation losses again exceeded $10bn as a last day meltdown for SenseTime marred an otherwise stable quarter for China. Global tech,...

Kirk Boodry

CX Daily: How SoftBank Wrestled Back Control of Arm China

In Depth: How SoftBank wrestled back control of Arm China. Analysis: China's 'zero-Covid' policy is here to stay despite relaxing of quarantine rules

Caixin Global

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